The top of the upcoming NBA draft has been settled in some circles for years, but it seemingly got cemented Oct. 5 in Las Vegas when league scouts and executives hit the Strip after seeing Victor Wembanyama play in person. They smiled as they dumped money onto blackjack tables and sipped drinks, the sight of a 7-foot-4 ball-handling, sweet-shooting teenager better than any 7-7-7 slot pull.
The reward of the No. 1 pick was as compelling as any chase this season, with the San Antonio Spurs landing the rights to take a player who could change their future and perhaps the entire league.
No pressure.
It’s regarded as a pretty strong draft by evaluators, who view it in tiers. At the top, there’s Wembanyama, the 19-year-old from France; Alabama’s Brandon Miller, Scoot Henderson, another 19-year-old playing in the G League; and, maybe, Amen Thompson, a 20-year-old playing in the Overtime Elite pro league. Then, there’s a group of another five or six players ahead of a big group with similar talent.
The “eye of the beholder” nature of the draft makes it difficult to project. There’s also speculation about teams prioritizing players who are more NBA ready with the new collective bargaining agreement putting the squeeze on the NBA’s biggest spenders. Inexpensive, controllable talent always has been valued and new league rules might enhance that.
Based on conversations with scouts and executives around the league, here’s The Times’ first crack at a mock draft ahead of June 22 when it goes down for real.
1. San Antonio Spurs: Victor Wembanyama, 7-4, C, France
Before the season, one NBA general manager wondered if there were more than three active players who could be traded for this pick. One scout recently wondered if there was anyone whom the Spurs would swap for straight up. Expectations are ridiculously high — matching Wembanyama’s ridiculous physical tools.
2. Charlotte Hornets: Brandon Miller, 6-9, SF, Alabama
Regarded as college basketball’s best prospect last season, Miller is a seamless fit for Charlotte and LaMelo Ball. Scoot Henderson could be an option, but Miller’s all-around skills and size on the wing make him the choice.
3. Portland Trail Blazers: Scoot Henderson, 6-2, PG, G League Ignite
This is where things start to get interesting because there is no guarantee Portland will make this pick. The Trail Blazers have strongly signaled that they intend to compete now while Damian Lillard still is in his prime, meaning a trade could be in the works. There are questions about Henderson, shooting being chief among them, but he gets downhill and makes plays. Best case, he’s the future face of a franchise.
4. Houston Rockets: Amen Thompson, 6-7, PG, Overtime Elite
Scouts have wondered how useful any Overtime Elite evaluations have been, but there’s no questioning Thompson’s size and athleticism. He sees the court well and can fire the ball to shooters, which is good because there are concerns about his shooting. The Rockets need an organizer.
5. Detroit Pistons: Jarace Walker, 6-7, PF, Houston
One of the big losers on lottery night, the Pistons made a big splash this offseason by hiring coach Monty Williams. Walker is one of the most physically impressive prospects in the draft — a big, strong forward with shooting touch that stretches to the perimeter.
6. Orlando Magic: Ausar Thompson, 6-7, SG, Overtime Elite
There’s some belief that Thompson might have the more NBA-ready than his twin brother, Amen, because of his superior shooting and defensive upside. The Magic could go in a ton of directions.
7. Indiana Pacers: Cam Whitmore, 6-6, SF, Villanova
Whitmore could be off the board by the time the Pacers pick because of his size and strength on the wing. He’s a big-time competitor but he’ll need to consistently make shots. One scout compared him to Justise Winslow in regards to the disconnect between his NBA-ready body and lack of proven skills.
8. Washington Wizards: Anthony Black, 6-6, PG, Arkansas
The Wizards flipped their front office this offseason, hiring Michael Winger from the Clippers. Black has great size at point guard and is a selfless player willing to defend. As teams rebuild their rosters, players like him are wildly valuable.
9. Utah Jazz: Cason Wallace, 6-4, PG, Kentucky
There are tons of options for the Jazz because their rebuild went much faster than expected after they dealt Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert last summer. Wallace is a defensive ace with natural point guard skills.
10. Dallas Mavericks: Taylor Hendricks, 6-9, PF, Central Florida
Like Portland, signals are Dallas is open for business when it comes to this pick because of its desire to help Luka Doncic win immediately. If the Mavericks don’t deal it to help rebuild the depth they lost in the Kyrie Irving trade, Hendricks’ 3-and-D potential might be as strong as anyone in the lottery.
11. Orlando Magic (via Chicago): Jalen Hood-Schifino, 6-6, PG, Indiana
Another pick that could be on the move because of Orlando’s stock of young players. Hood-Schifino is a point guard with size that fits a lineup full of oversized players. Markelle Fultz is a free agent after next season, and Orlando could be looking for his replacement.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder: Gradey Dick, 6-8, SG, Kansas
If there’s a skill every team is on the hunt for it’s shooting, and Dick might be the best marksman in this draft — meaning he could be off the board before this pick. He’s also got plus size for the wing and would be another great piece for the surging Thunder.
13. Toronto Raptors: Keyonte George, 6-4, SG, Baylor
It’s hard to know what direction the Raptors are headed in, maybe looking to reload instead of rebuild. George would fit either of those strategies, a scoring guard who can carry the perimeter attack for a team if he becomes a little more consistent.
14. New Orleans Pelicans: Dereck Lively II, 7-1, C, Duke
Great size and athleticism made Lively the top prospect heading into college this past year, and after a slow start, he flashed the tools that modern NBA centers have: rim-running and shot-blocking. He shot the ball well at his pro day and has helped his stock in the pre-draft process,
15. Atlanta Hawks: Bilal Coulibaly, 6-6, SF, France
Scouts came to France to watch Wembanyama and got the bonus of seeing Coulibaly blossom into one of the hottest names in the pre-draft process. He’s had a good run of games as he and Wembanyama led Metropolitans 92 to the French league finals. He could sneak into the top 10.
16. Utah Jazz (via Minnesota): Leonard Miller, 6-10, SF, G League Ignite
The Jazz’s stockpile of picks gives them the luxury to gamble a little. Miller is a big-time rebounder who showed some skill against pros this past year in the G-League. He’s got great size and can pass the ball, drawing Lamar Odom comparisons.
17. Lakers: Kobe Bufkin, 6-5, PG, Michigan
Another player who is moving up draft boards and could be among the lottery picks, Bufkin has the kind of two-way skills that might set him apart from other point guards in this draft. He has a lot of fans around the NBA.
18. Miami Heat: Nick Smith Jr., 6-5, PG-SG, Arkansas
One of the top-ranked players entering college last season, he struggled because of a knee injury. He’s a gifted shooter and ballhandler, but there are questions about his ability to make teammates better.
19. Golden State Warriors: Jett Howard, 6-8, SG, Michigan
The son of former NBA player and Michigan coach Juwan Howard has plenty of size and can really move and shoot the ball. The big questions are on the defensive end, where he hasn’t maximized the potential of his frame.
20. Houston Rockets (via Clippers): Jordan Hawkins, 6-5, SG, Connecticut
One of the biggest stars of the NCAA tournament, Hawkins is viewed as one-dimensional by some evaluators. Lucky for him that dimension is shooting, and everyone is willing to take on more floor spacing.
21. Brooklyn Nets: Dariq Whitehead, 6-7, SG-SF, Duke
Another part of Duke’s heralded recruiting class that struggled to find footing as freshmen. Whitehead has NBA wing size and shooting, though there are concerns about an offseason foot injury.
22. Brooklyn Nets (via Clippers): Colby Jones, 6-6, SG, Xavier
Jones has strong all-around offensive skills and uses his body well to make up for average physical tools. There’s two-way potential too.
23. Portland Trail Blazers (via New York): Kris Murray, 6-8, PF, Iowa
After his brother Keegan left Iowa to play for the Sacramento Kings, Murray showed that his game has similar offensive polish. If Portland keeps this pick and wants to find win-now rookies, Murray is near the top of that list.
24. Sacramento Kings: Jaime Jaquez Jr., 6-7, SF, UCLA
Jaquez really helped himself in the pre-draft process, evaluators have said. Teams value his versatility, maturity and resourcefulness. He’s viewed as a player who could help contribute earlier than most.
25. Memphis Grizzlies: Brice Sensabaugh, 6-6, SF, Ohio State
The Grizzlies like their wings kind of beefy, and Sensabaugh is a big body who can get a bucket. He wasn’t viewed as a one-and-done prospect but he played himself into the first round.
26. Indiana Pacers (via Cleveland): Brandin Podziemski, 6-5, SG, Santa Clara
With Buddy Hield’s future with the Pacers up in the air, Podziemski would fill the void because he really can shoot the ball. He’s got big questions on defense.
27. Charlotte Hornets (via Denver): Maxwell Lewis, 6-7, SF, Pepperdine
Lewis has a real chance to be a 3-and-D wing, and the Hornets need as many reliable players as they can find. He’s got good size and length and can be a complementary scorer.
28. Utah Jazz (via Philadelphia): Oliver-Maxence Prosper, 6-8, PF, Marquette
No one helped themselves more at the NBA combine than Prosper, who showed scouts his toughness and versatility while most top prospects declined to play live scrimmages.
29. Indiana Pacers (via Boston): G.G. Jackson, 6-9, PF, South Carolina
With three picks in the first round, the Pacers can take a swing on the draft’s youngest player, who needs to refine his shot while he matures.
30. Clippers (via Milwaukee): Noah Clowney, 6-10, PF, Alabama
The Clippers could use this pick in a trade to shed salary, or they could take on a player like Clowney — a big with defensive versatility and the potential to stretch the floor as a shooter.
This story originally appeared on LA Times
