Two- through 30-year Treasury yields fell on Monday, as investors brushed aside a short-lived, weekend mutiny in Russia and looked ahead to data that may offer fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s rate path.
What happened
-
The yield on the 2-year Treasury note
TMUBMUSD02Y,
4.746%
declined 1.5 basis points to 4.733% from 4.748% at 3 p.m. Eastern time on Friday. -
The 10-year Treasury note
TMUBMUSD10Y,
3.724%
yielded 3.719%, down 1.8 basis points from 3.737% Friday afternoon. Monday’s level is the lowest since June 8, based on 3 p.m. figures from Dow Jones Market Data. -
The rate on the 30-year Treasury bond
TMUBMUSD30Y,
3.817%
was marginally lower at 3.818% versus 3.819% late Friday.
What drove the market
The mutiny, led by Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin late Friday, saw the mercenary paramilitary force take over Russia’s southern military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don amid little resistance before marching largely unchallenged toward Moscow. On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin described the rebellion as a “criminal activity,” and said its organizers would be “brought to justice.”
The events sent no major shock waves through global financial markets, with oil futures settling with small gains on Monday. Analysts, however, warned of the potential for further internal strife to stoke volatility.
Read: What’s next for markets after aborted Wagner mutiny leaves Russia’s Putin weakened
Meanwhile, Germany’s Ifo business-climate index declined to 88.5 in June from 91.5 in May, according to data from the Ifo Institute published Monday. The reading fell below the expectations of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.
Investors will hear from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell again on Wednesday, following his semiannual testimony to Congress last week, while the personal-consumption expenditures index, which includes the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, is set for release on Friday.
What analysts are saying
“Most attention on the data calendar this week will be focused on Friday’s release of the PCE report for May. While we look for deceleration in both consumer income and spending on a monthly basis vs April, the inflation component of the report will grab most market attention,” said Oscar Munoz, chief U.S. macro strategist for TD Securities.
In addition, “Chair Powell will grab the headlines this week in terms of Fed communications, as most Fed officials appear set to stay on the sidelines,” Munoz wrote in a note.
This story originally appeared on Marketwatch
