Russia’s failed mutiny will have consequences for the war in Ukraine, even if they do not play out immediately.
First the fate of Wagner.
The mercenary army was taking time out from the war after its exertions at Bakhmut but was heading back soon.
The future of its fighters is now unclear. If they are swallowed up into the Russian army, as seems to be within the terms of the deal, Moscow loses one of its most effective, if mercurial, fighting forces.
Ukraine-Russia war latest: Wagner mutiny ‘may have been orchestrated event’
Wagner was expected to take up a rapid reaction role to neutralise any breakthrough by Ukrainian forces.
Losing that capability would weaken the Russians at a crucial moment in this war as Kyiv’s counteroffensive picks up momentum.
Then there’s the fate of the two men Yevgeny Prigozhin launched his mutiny to oust Russia’s defence minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of staff Valery Gerasimov.
Shoigu is a securocrat, not a military man, and critics say it has shown. Gerasimov is a real soldier but his performance has not been stellar either.
A more effective commander, General Sergey Surovikin, is waiting in the wings.
He earned the name General Armageddon leading Russia’s brutal campaign in Syria. He briefly commanded the war in Ukraine, withdrawing forces to the defensive positions they hold now.
He would be a more formidable enemy for the Ukrainians. He was one of the generals who appealed on television to Wagnerites to stand down over the weekend and may hope that loyalty is now rewarded.
But President Vladimir Putin is hamstrung. He may want to replace Shoigu and Gerasimov with more competent commanders but doing so now risks looking weak. It would be giving in to Prigozhin’s demands.
The pair may stay in place for now. That will suit the strategists in Kyiv very well.
Then there is the question of morale. Soldiers need to know what they are fighting for. That was far from clear even before Prigozhin’s pre-mutiny rant on Friday.
He denounced Putin’s justification for this war as based on lies and peddled by “mentally ill scumbags” – as he described his lieutenants.
Not everyone in Russia will have heard all that, but many in the trenches in Ukraine will have.
And the tirade will help further delegitimise the war in the minds of soldiers’ families back home. None of that bolsters the Russians’ fighting spirit.
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Russian defence minister ‘in Ukraine’
What does aborted Russian mutiny mean for Ukraine?
Wars always have consequences back home, particularly when they go badly wrong – as Russia knows well. Its failures in Afghanistan, for instance, accelerated the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
Will Putin’s disastrous misadventure in Ukraine do something similar for the Russian federation now?
Ukrainians will be encouraged by all this but wondering if it will be enough.
They are facing a well-dug-in enemy that has had months to prepare. They are launching one of the most difficult campaigns in the book, a combined arms breaching operation against a well-defended army.
Thanks to dithering and timidity in the West they are doing so without air superiority.
The mutiny might be the beginning of the end for Putin but for Ukrainians, the crucial question is how long might that take. They know they are on a clock.
Appetite in the West to spend billions supporting them will not last forever. One of the prospective candidates in next year’s US election, Donald Trump, cannot even commit himself to backing Ukraine.
No wonder President Zelenskyy was on the phone again to Western leaders urging them to redouble their support, whatever is going on in Russia.
This story originally appeared on Skynews
