Why the Islamic State group is ‘returning to its roots’ in the Syrian desert

Traditionally, during this season, the Bedouins travel in convoys into the desert to harvest the truffles, which are considered to be some of the best in the region. However, in recent years, armed Islamic State group terrorists have been attacking these convoys, murdering dozens of people, including women and children.

The worst of the attacks took place on February 17 in the Al-Sukhnah region, not far from the city of Palmyra. A total of 46 members of the Beni Khaled tribe were murdered while they were out gathering.

Our team spoke to terrorism expert Gregory Waters, who documents the Islamic State group’s activities for the Counter Extremism Project. Our interview with him has been transcribed below and lightly edited for clarity and length.

>> Read more : Investigation: The deadly attacks on Syrian truffle hunters by the Islamic State group

Who carried out the Al-Sukhnah attack on February 17, 2023?

To determine who was behind the Al Sukhnah attack, we have to look at contextual factors. This attack occurred in an area outside Al Sukhnah that has, according to security forces, been controlled by the IS group for many years. Essentially, the regime never fully took it back from the group. 

The Bedouins were out gathering in an area controlled by the IS group, which supports the idea that it was the IS group that was behind the attack. 

The other thing to consider is that this attack on the convoy of Bedouins came in the midst of a period of heavy IS group attacks against regime security forces, all around this area. These attacks included both sustained battles against hardened positions as well as ambushes.

The IS group is most effective when no one can see its movements, when no one can find its camps, its hideouts and its caches. They risk losing that advantage when civilians wander into these really remote areas. So, what’s it going to do? Well, it’s going to attack the civilians. 

Some of the Syrian security forces that went to the area in response to the attack reported that some of the victims were not just killed, they were left decapitated and with notes pinned to them, warning others of a similar fate if they collaborated with the regime. 

What type of attacks does the IS group carry out in the Badia? What goals do they hope to achieve?

In 2020, we saw a huge uptick in attacks carried out by the IS group. This includes both attacks being directly claimed by the group, which publishes videos and pictures from central Syria, and reports from pro-regime Facebook pages or news outlets, which report on regime soldiers being killed in the region.

In 2020, the frequency of attacks began to increase as did the severity of attacks. One of them even killed a Russian general.

Finally, in early 2021, there was a really big pushback on the IS group carried out by the regime as well as Russia and Iran. As a result of these new operations, the attacks carried out by the IS group decreased for about a year, until late last year. 

Right now, the IS group is returning to its roots, conducting an insurgency the same way it did in Iraq in the early 2000s. It’s using small groups of well-armed militants driving around on motorcycles or in pickup trucks with machine guns. In some cases, they may have some heavy weaponry, but mostly they are just doing hit and run attacks all the time. Sometimes, it’s just shooting from far away at military patrols to scare them away or keep them from patrolling in certain areas. 

Sometimes, however, their attacks involve ambushing small, isolated outposts. And, of course, they’re also heavily using mines and IEDs. The whole region has become heavily mined because the regime and its allies use mines as well. Regime soldiers often place them near highways, oil and gas fields and outposts. 

Since 2019, how many attacks have occurred in this region? How can you be sure about the identity of the assaillants? 

Since the beginning of 2019, there have been over 900 confirmed attacks. When we say “confirmed”, that means that the attack definitely happened and was likely carried out by the IS group.

You know, you can never say 100 percent who is behind every attack. The IS group explicitly claims some of these attacks, publishing posts that sometimes include videos or pictures. But a lot of the attacks go unclaimed. However, when you see [Syrian army] soldiers being killed, it’s fairly easy to say that this is the IS group. With civilians, it is harder to say who is behind it. 

A lot of times, you can get an idea based on the context of where it occurred. There are places in central Syria that are still territorially under the control of the IS group, but these areas are uninhabited. The group doesn’t control any towns and villages. 

But there are desert areas that are controlled by the IS group and when you see civilians killed in those areas, you can certainly establish that it was the IS group.  

Other times, these attacks on civilians come amidst a broader IS group offensive against regime forces in the same areas. 

Why doesn’t the IS group claim all of these attacks? 

We’re used to seeing the IS group as a consensus group with flashy media that claims everything single thing it does. This was a key part of its ability to expand around the world and get so many supporters when it was really coming on the scene in the early 2010s. But it no longer holds territory, it’s not trying to recruit people and move them into Syria. In fact, it’s explicitly said, “Don’t come to central Syria to join us”.

You can see it’s taken on a more sophisticated and careful strategy. When it doesn’t claim attacks, it draws less attention to itself and to its activities. And it creates this element of chaos and fear.

The tribes that live in this area [Editor’s note: who are Sunni], don’t believe the Syrian Army is there to protect them and they don’t like the foreign militias operating in the region [Editor’s note: Both Iranian and Afghan Shi’ite militias are deployed in the area].

So when there are attacks, the locals blame different people. Sometimes, they blame the Iranians or the Syrian regime, other times the IS group. What all of this does is that it creates this element of fear, of chaos and of distrust. It is the same strategy that the IS group employed in northeast Syria in order to drive a wedge between [Sunni] Arab communities and the current administration. And now we see that they are likely using the same strategies in central Syria and the regime areas.

What forces are present in the Syrian desert?

You have the regime and its army, you have the pro-regime Syrian militias, which are heavily deployed here and have been ever since the IS group started to control this area. The most important of these would be the National Defense Forces, also known as the NDF, which is the country-wide entity that was essentially made back in 2012.

These forces have a very tribal nature. They have been used to sort of mobilise the tribes and integrate them into the regime forces.

The other really key militia is Liwa Al-Quds, which is spread out all across central Syria. Again, it plays a similar role in the region to the NDF. Alongside the Syrian forces, you have Russian military forces and the Russian Air Force. Sometimes, the Russian Air Force conducts a lot of air bombings, sometimes targeted runs on suspected IS hideouts. Other times, they’ll offer close air support during battles.

There is also the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, which has a large presence in central Syria, because, again, this is the area where you have the oil and gas fields. Some of these are partially leased out to the Russians.

And then you have militias backed by Iran. This includes Syrian militias as well as Afghan and Pakistani foreign fighters and the Lebanese Hezbollah. So all of these groups are here. They’re all spread across the region. They work together at times, they work separately at times, but they’re all spread throughout central Syria.

What are the main tribes targeted by these attacks? What relationship does the Syrian regime have to these tribes? And why is this important to the regime?

So the tribes that have been the most frequent victims of attacks in central Syria this year are the Bussaraya tribe from western Deir Ezzor and the Beni Khaled from central Homs. But any tribe that’s in central Syria has lost people, this year, to attacks. 

The tribal dynamics and political allegiances in this region are always very complex, because one tribe is not one coherent entity. It’s not like a very structured single group with a strong leader that sets their policies.

So when you talk to members of these tribes, they describe their allegiances, essentially, as “I want to live a life of dignity and safety and I want to know who’s going to protect me? Who’s going to allow me to live my life?”

And some of these tribes have a history of fighting the IS group, especially the Bussaraya in Deir Ezzor. Some of their men work in regime forces, as soldiers or militiamen. But again, the economic conditions in Syria mean that if anyone is going to join a militia or the army because it’s a job that pays the best of the jobs you find.

The Bussaraya can also be considered pro-regime because they do live in pro-regime areas. Some of their men work for the regime as soldiers or militia members. But, with the economic conditions in Syria, if someone joins a militia or the army, it is because it is the best-paid work that they can find. 

So the NDF really reflects the tribal fabric of the communities. Local commanders come from prominent and well-respected members of this community. So when you talk to people from the Bussaraya tribe about the regime security forces, they’ll talk about having a lot of trust in the NDF because it is made up of their neighbours, of men they respect and of family members.

What role do Iranian militias play in the region and why do the local tribes accuse them of carrying out attacks? 

Iranian militias, and foreign fighters in general, have been in Syria, basically, from the very beginning of the war. They served across the entire country. They were used by the regime to recapture key opposition areas like the city of Aleppo and Damascus. In central Syria, they have been really heavily used to fight the IS group.

Today, the Iranian militias in central Syria control smuggling routes and they’re involved in a variety of illegal financial activities.

But of course, for many Syrians, there’s just inherent distrust towards the Iranian militias because they are foreign militia and don’t speak the language. They’ve also committed a lot of abuses over the years, a lot of war crimes.

There’s also a sectarian aspect. When the [Shi’ite] Iranian militias came in, they tried to recruit Syrian Sunnis and convert them. They also tried to convert civilians in the areas where they were deployed. 

Some of the recent attacks have been on shepherds. Who carries out these attacks and why? 

The IS group targets shepherds year-round. They are attacked for the same reason as the Bedouins gathering truffles. These are people who are travelling into areas where the army doesn’t usually go, where regular people don’t usually go. 

They might end up wandering into areas that the IS group considers as its own. That exposes them to attacks. 

The IS group also steals sheep because they are an important economic resource. Sheep are the largest economic industry in the region and there are massive sheep markets everywhere. Both legal and illegal trading of sheep occurs between Syria, Turkey and Iraq. Everyone’s engaged in it. So sheep have been a really key financing opportunity for the IS group for years now. 

Sometimes, they kill the shepherds. Other times, they’ll just steal sheep. They take the sheep and then sell them in another part of the country where no one knows who those sheep belong to.

And lastly, kidnappings. Shepherds are sometimes kidnapped. This is probably the least common, but the most terrifying if you’re a local in central Syria. Kidnappings often end with the bodies being found and executed somewhere else. I use the word executed because the bodies are found, lined up with bullet wounds to the head.