20 EV stocks that are expected to soar at least 38%, even after this year’s rebound

The holdings of three exchange-traded funds focused on EV production, related industries and the eventual adoption of autonomous vehicles provide the basis for a stock screen. First, to show how dramatic the space’s performance has been, take a look at a five-year chart for the three ETFs, the S&P 500
SPX
and the Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP
:

During 2022, the three EV-related ETFs fell between 34% and 39%, with dividends reinvested. At that point, we published this screen of the three ETFs’ holdings to show which ones analysts expected to rise the most in 2023. The three ETFs are now up between 12% and 24% for 2023. Among the analysts’ favorite EV-related stocks in December, Li Auto Inc.
2015,
-5.52%
has more than doubled this year, while XPeng Inc.
9868,
-3.63%
is up 80%, Nio Inc.
NIO,
-4.43%
has risen 42% and Tesla Inc.
TSLA,
-1.68%,
which didn’t make that list, has doubled.

Shares of Rivian Automotive Inc.
RIVN,
-7.22%,
which also didn’t make the December list of analysts’ favorites, have risen 34% this year. On Thursday, the company raised its 2023 production guidance 4% to 52,000 vehicles. Rivian’s vehicle production increased 49% sequentially during the second quarter, while vehicle deliveries rose 59%.

So it’s time for a new screen of the EV-related space, starting with the holdings of the same three ETFs:

• The Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles ETF
  DRIV
  has $842 million in assets under management and holds 75 stocks to track an index of companies around the world that are involved with various aspects of the development and manufacture of autonomous-driving systems or EVs. The companies’ primary stock listings need to be in a developed market, South Korea or Taiwan, according to the fund’s selection methodology. Geographically, the fund is 57% concentrated in U.S. stocks, with 11% in Japan, 4.5% in Canada and 4% in China. DRIV has a modified weighting by market capitalization, with each position capped at 3% each time the fund is reconstituted, which is done semiannually. The fund’s top holding at the moment is Alphabet Inc.’s Class A shares
  GOOGL,
  -0.75%,
  which make up 3.3% of the portfolio, followed by Nvidia Corp.
  NVDA,
  -3.45%
  at 3% and Apple Inc.
  AAPL,
  -0.61%
  at just below 3%.

• The $458 million iShares Self-Driving EV & Tech ETF
  IDRV
  holds 53 stocks. It tracks an index that weights global stocks by their involvement in the autonomous- and electric-vehicle industries. But without DRIV’s restriction on where stocks are listed, it has heavier exposure to Chinese companies, which make up 16% of the portfolio. U.S. companies make up 37% and companies in South Korea make up 12%. The fund’s top holdings are XPeng, which makes up 7.7% of the portfolio, followed by Rivian at 6% and Li Auto at 5.3%. The portfolio is reconstituted annually and rebalanced twice a year, when individual holdings are capped at 4%.

• The $185 million KraneShares Electric Vehicles & Future Mobility Index ETF
  KARS
  holds shares of 61 companies, making up an index of companies involved with EV development and manufacturing, while adding exposure to lithium and copper mining as well as fuel-cell technology. Its largest holding, at 4.9% of the portfolio, is Tesla, followed by Aptiv PLC
  APTV,
  -1.65%,
  which makes auto parts and whose shares are held by all three of these ETFs.

This screen of the three funds will focus on analysts’ opinions. A second screen, in a subsequent article, will look at expected growth rates for revenue through 2025.

Together, the three ETFs hold 144 stocks. In addition to Aptive, stocks held by all three ETFs include Tesla, Lucid Group Inc.
LCID,
-3.41%
and LG Energy Solution Ltd.
373220,
+5.33%.

We narrowed the list of 144 stocks to 124 that are each covered by at least five analysts polled by FactSet.

Here are the 20 stocks on the list with at least 75% buy or equivalent ratings that have the most upside potential over the next 12 months, based on consensus price targets:

Click on the tickers for more about each company, including business profiles.

Click here for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the MarketWatch quote page.

Don’t miss: These dividend stocks yield as much as 11% while meeting strict criteria for estimated cash flow