Best & Worst Strategists Emerge as Merge Looms

[Warning: The following contains MAJOR spoilers for Survivor Season 45 Episode 5, “I Don’t Want to Be the Worm.”]

In the last episode before the merge, the front-runners of Survivor 45 became clear. And their places at the tops of their tribes are all to do with strategy and social game.

We’ve seen some incomprehensible decisions in Survivor 45. In the premiere and last week’s episode (October 18), players asked to be voted out. Hannah from Lulu did so in the season opener, leading to no vote at the first Tribal Council. Sean, her former teammate who had since switched to Reba, asked for the same kindness, but there was still a vote. Notably, Sean didn’t vote for himself, nor did he vote for Sifu. The shock of seeing his name on a ballot made Sifu implement some less-than-brilliant strategy back at the Reba camp.

Season 45 Episode 5 was defined by good and bad strategy, and it became glaringly obvious who is and who isn’t playing this game well. Kaleb (still on Lulu) has been an obvious power player all season long. And despite some early ruffling of feathers, Emily (previously Lulu, now Belo) has shown some strategic prowess as well (she’s the only player so far this season to pull off a blindside). But Episode 5 did reveal her blind spots.

Reba is full of bad strategists. Sifu made a fake idol that he didn’t show anybody, but did flat-out say he had. This was an attempt to intimidate Dee (who cast the one Sifu vote), Julie, and J, who have incorrectly believed for several episodes that Sifu has a real idol. Sifu told this idol lie to each of his teammates, and I’m still trying to figure out why. Telling different lies to different people seems like a better way to stir confusion, confusion on which a good strategist can capitalize. This move seemed to be made solely to see how the women would respond and nothing more. It’s hard to think of how this will make Sifu come out on top. So far, it’s only put a bigger target on his back.

Katurah (now Lulu, formerly Belo) is not good at hiding her hand. While Kaleb and former Belos Kellie, Bruce, and Jake went on a group walk, Katurah searched for an idol. She was caught and played it off badly. Truly, it didn’t look like she tried very hard to convince them otherwise. Kaleb, however, showed his trustworthiness through action. He saw Katurah before the others and called out her name as a warning. When the group left, he told her of this move to build trust.

Drew, Austin, Kendra, and Brando playing the ‘Survivor’ Season 45 Episode 5 immunity/reward challenge (Credit: Robert Voets/CBS)

Kaleb is the only player so far to be making a personal connection with every single player through his actions, not flimsy statements. Because of this, everyone says yes when he offers an alliance. And unlike Katurah and other contestants, he’s making these bonds in spite of his dislike for certain people. Katurah and Kaleb both dislike Bruce, who annoyed the team with bossiness in Episode 5, but Kaleb is letting Bruce think he’s more than happy to follow his orders.

Katurah’s unapologetic disdain for Bruce has made her his No. 1 name on the chopping block. If you’re going to have an enemy on Survivor, don’t make one on purpose. It’s fun for viewers, but it’s your teammates who vote for the winner in the end. Katurah has her sights set on eliminating Bruce, but she should be more concerned with making sure she doesn’t have enemies in the jury, should she make it to the final three. They’re only 11 days in, but in this shortened format, it’s never too early to think about the endgame. And as it stands, Katurah seems to only care about Bruce.

The best strategists are the people who know it’s vital to establish individual connections over group alliances. Kaleb is excelling in this, and Kellie’s starting to as well. With their three combined advantages/idols and their smart planning, Austin and Drew (formerly Reba, now Belo) are the strongest duo of the season so far. When Reba lost the immunity/reward challenge for the first time in this episode, Austin was sent on a journey with J and Kellie. At the top of the summit was a choice between sustenance (sandwiches) and strategy (amulets). The three amulets increase in power each time one leaves the game, and if more than one is still in the game, they can only be played in tandem with another player. The last time they can be played is when six players remain.

Austin wanted nothing to do with this amulet, as it meant forming an alliance with people from different tribes that he didn’t know well. That, and he was starving. Majority won, though, and J wanted an amulet for the sake of having an advantage. Having an advantage doesn’t mean much if you’re not a strong strategist, and J’s actions are defined by her incorrect belief that Sifu has an idol. That’s not the makings of a strong Survivor planner. Kellie didn’t want to miss the chance for an advantage, which isn’t always the best justification for taking one. Now, Austin has an incentive to vote both of these people out. J and Kellie shouldn’t have trusted Austin’s words. Like I said before, actions speak louder when making Survivor alliances.

When Austin returned to Belo, he learned Drew’s name was on the chopping block. Brando and Kendra didn’t make a good plan to carry out this vote, however. Brando and Kendra planned to convince Drew that Kendra was on the outs, when they really were voting for him. Brando’s immediate “betrayal” of Kendra was a red flag to Drew, who wasn’t convinced by the lie. The only savvy move made was Brando lying to Emily about who pitched Kendra’s name, but it was only savvy because of Emily’s reaction. Had Emily believed Drew (who told the truth about Brando pitching Kendra), Brando’s move would have been ineffective.

Brando and Kendra at the Belo camp in ‘Survivor’ Season 45 Episode 5 (Credit: Robert Voets/CBS)

Emily saw her choice as being between one alliance or the other. Because she viewed Brando and Kendra as the weaker, “underdog” alliance, she believed it more likely that power-player Drew would lie. Brando being a weaker link in the tribe does not mean he’s incapable of lying. From the very beginning of the season, Emily’s “gut” has led her astray. It told her to immediately target Sabiyah and Kaleb, assuming they were pulling every Lulu string, but it was too early for that to be the case; she only feared that becoming reality and then interpreted that gut feeling as fact.

When she takes a step back and looks at each individual game, she makes smart moves, like when saving Kaleb and blindsiding Sabiyah in Episode 3. Perhaps the hunger and desire to keep her favor on Belo have gotten to her, but she would do well to remember to take a step back and look at individual playing over group, because before Tribal Council, Austin and Drew made their interest in an alliance with her clear with their actions. Brando and Kendra were kind of just operating on vibes.

Austin told the tribe what happened on the summit journey, but lied about the amulets. He said they failed a test that would give them an advantage, but told Drew and Emily the truth in private talks. It was between Drew and Brando heading into Tribal. In talks with Jeff Probst, they all admitted their voting strategy is focused on the game post-merge. Emily said she was looking forward to showing her loyalty to one alliance with this vote, and she redeemed her strategic abilities when choosing Austin and Drew.

In the voting booth, Austin sacrificed his vote in order to extend the life of his idol. But he didn’t stop there. He then played his Goodwill Advantage to restore that lost vote. With that, his idol lives on at no cost to himself and also assured that his closest ally wouldn’t be stuck in a tiebreaker. When the votes were tallied, there were two votes for Drew (from Brando and Kendra) and three for Brando (from everyone else). Kendra was shocked, but she shouldn’t have been.

Earlier at camp, Kendra never stopped to wonder if anyone on her tribe had an idol or advantage. Had she, she hopefully would have tried to get closer with the teammates so she’d be entrusted with that information. Her shock over Brando’s elimination was from a pure lack of proactive planning.

In the trailer for next week, Drew tells Austin, Dee, and Julie that they’re the “strongest four in the game.” What he doesn’t know is how bad of strategists Dee and Julie have proven to be over at Reba (they, too, had no evidence that Sifu had an idol, believed his lie with ease, and are centering all of their plans around that). The strongest strategists of Survivor 45 so far are Austin, Drew, Kaleb, Emily, and Kellie, but the trailer hints that Drew is starting to show some blind spots.

In this season where physical strength is mattering little, strategy and social game will likely win in the end. Whomever gathers the most intel about each player after they merge next week will have the game in the palm of their hand.

Survivor, Wednesdays, 8/7c, CBS