The war in the Middle East could lead to higher inflation for longer as it puts upward pressure on oil prices, according to Strategas’ Jason Trennert. On Saturday, militant group Hamas attacked Israel, leading to the deadliest offensive Israel has experienced in 50 years . Israel responded with a series of retaliatory air strikes, the total number of casualties since the weekend has now reached over 1,300. Oil prices spiked following the attack, with Brent crude futures rising nearly 4% to $87.94 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures also traded 4% higher at $86.11 a barrel. @CL.1 1D mountain Oil pops “The event supports one of our most high conviction investment themes – deglobalization and its likely impact on inflation,” Trennert wrote in a Sunday note. “There is likely to be natural tendency to buy Treasurys and the U.S. dollar, but wars are generally inflationary.” “It is difficult not to assume that the war is likely to put a bottom in the price in the oil; this, in turn, may put pressure on the U.S. consumer,” the strategist added. Investors have been fretting persistent inflation, which could lead the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer. Rising oil prices could put even more pressure on inflation. Given this backdrop, Trennert said he likes energy and defense stocks. Energy and defense stocks rallied Monday. Halliburton , CF Industries and Hess rose 5.8%, 5% and 4.6%, respectively. Northrop Grumman , L3Harris Technologies and General Dynamics were up 9% each. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
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