UFC Sao Paulo predictions: Late ‘Prelims’ undercard preview | Almeida vs. Lewis

The inimitable Derrick Lewis answers the call this Saturday (Nov. 4, 2023) when he battles seemingly unstoppable Heavyweight prospect, Jailton Almeida, on short notice. Sao Paulo’s Ibirapuera Gymnasium in Brazil also plays host to a classic “Striker vs. Grappler” matchup pitting Armen Petrosyan against Rodolfo Vieira and Ismael Bonfim’s attempt to bounce back against Vinc Pichel.

We’ve got three more UFC Sao Paulo “Prelims” undercard bouts to examine (checkout the first batch here) and no time to waste. Let’s dig in …

155 lbs.: Elves Brener vs. Esteban Ribovics

Elves Brener (15-3) defied massive odds to beat Zubaira Tukhugov by controversial split decision in his UFC debut. He was a similarly lopsided underdog against Guram Kutateladze his next time out, but survived serious early damage to stop Kutateladze and claim “Fight of the Night.”

He’ll enjoy a three-inch reach advantage over “El Gringo.”

Esteban Ribovics (12-1) needed just 90 seconds to flatten Thomas Paull on Contender Series and earn a UFC contract. Though he lost his undefeated record to late replacement Loik Radzhabov in his UFC debut, he bounced back to overpower Kamuela Kirk four months later.

That win marked his first by decision, as he’d knocked out six opponents and submitted another five.

I wrote off Brener as one of Chute Boxe’s weaker products ahead of his UFC debut and didn’t change my opinion after he inexplicably walked away with the decision, but he showed unexpected grit, offensive prowess, and wrestling skills to gut his way past Kutateladze. While I’m still not totally sold on him being a contender, I’ll admit that he’s better than I gave him credit for.

I still favor Ribovics here, though. “El Gringo” has the heavier hands and the stronger chin of the two, not to mention an excellent gas tank to avoid reenacting Kutateladze’s late meltdown. He’ll overpower Brener in protracted exchanges and can use his patented kimura sweep to get off his back if Brener tries to lean on his wrestling. In the end, expect a “Fight of the Night”-type slugfest with Ribovics’ superior firepower carrying the day.

Prediction: Ribovics via second round technical knockout

135 lbs.: Victor Hugo vs. Daniel Marcos

After spending two years on the sidelines, Victor Hugo (24-4) returned to action with three straight finishes. His efforts brought him to Contender Series, where a slick kneebar finish of Eduardo Torres Caut earned him a contract.

“Striker” steps in for Daniel Santos on around four weeks’ notice.

Daniel Marcos (15-0) followed his impressive Contender Series victory over Brandon Lewis by stopping Saimon Oliveira in his UFC debut. “Soncora” entered his sophomore bout with Davey Grant as a slight favorite, but wound up needing a highly controversial split decision to keep his undefeated record intact.

All eight of his professional finishes have come via (technical) knockout.

If Marcos keeps his foot on this gas, this is his fight to lose. Indeed, 28 professional fights have failed to sharpen Hugo’s striking beyond looping punches and poorly-timed spinning attacks. Marcos will have a massive edge on the feet and, if his defensive wrestling showcase against Lewis was any indication, the means to keep it there.

Again, that’s assuming Marcos doesn’t sleepwalk through the fight like he did against Grant. Hugo is more than aggressive enough to out-work him if given the chance. I’ll be an optimist and say Marcos gets his act together, shutting down Hugo’s wrestling and landing the heavier blows to secure a wide decision.

Prediction: Marcos via unanimous decision

170 lbs.: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos’ (24-7) beatdown of Benoit Saint-Denis upped his record to 9-2 in his previous 11 fights, only for a United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) suspension to halt his momentum in its track. He returned to action in June 2023, when he edged out Abubakar Nurmagomedov in the fourth split decision of his UFC career.

“Capoeira” gives up one inch each of height and reach to “Gladiator.”

Rinat Fakhretdinov (21-1) punched his UFC ticket with a one-punch knockout of Octagon veteran Eric Spicely, then kicked off his Octagon tenure with two straight decisions. His latest bout proved his most impressive yet, as he clubbed-and-subbed Kevin Lee in less than one minute.

His professional finishes are split 11:7 between knockouts and submissions.

I was a doubter ahead of Fakhretdinov’s UFC debut and remained one after he grinded out the very, very limited Andreas Michailidis. Now, though, I’m starting to believe. His mix of cardio, overpowering wrestling and increasingly potent punching looks like a real problem for the division.

At the very least, it’s enough to carry him past “Capoeira.” Fearsome as Zaleski dos Santos can be, his only dominant performance in 4.5 years came against a Lightweight in Saint-Denis. I don’t trust him to beat a bigger, stronger, more focused grappler in Fakhretdinov; however, Zaleski dos Santos did sprawl-and-brawl effectively against Nurmagomedov, Fakhretdinov is both a better athlete than Nurmagomedov and far more dangerous on the feet, which will go a long way towards opening up his wrestling. In short, Fakhretdinov’s aggression muzzles Zaleski dos Santos’ offense as he racks up constant takedowns to sweep the scorecards.

Prediction: Fakhretdinov via unanimous decision

“Brazil vs. The World” is always a fun theme and this one looks like it could be memorable. See you Saturday, Maniacs.

Current Prediction Record for 2023: 161-85-1 (4 NC)

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Sao Paulo fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN+) at 9 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Sao Paulo: “Almeida vs. Lewis” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.