Nearly two years ago the Minnesota Timberwolves traded a raft of assets and draft picks to the Utah Jazz in exchange for Rudy Gobert. I immediately predicted huge success and tweeted it, wrote it in articles and went on the radio to shout my opinion. I argued against the prevailing narrative that the Timberwolves had overpaid in the deal but was confident in my analysis that Gobert could be the lynchpin that turned the Timberwolves from a play-in level team to contenders.
So, what happened? Minnesota finished the 2021-22 season as the seventh seed in the Western Conference before adding Gobert and then went on to finish the 2022-23 season… as the eighth seed in the Western Conference.
I saw that going differently in my mind.
Well, it turns out that I was just a year too early. After a 2022-23 season filled with major injuries, growing pains and player development, Gobert has, in fact, helped turn the Timberwolves into contenders this season. Midway through January, the Timberwolves have the best record in the Western Conference and the second-best record in the NBA. The team plays exactly as I envisioned they would back in 2022, and their play-in days appear to be behind them. But, I’ll take it a step further…
This Timberwolves team could win it all. As soon as this season.
That is worth some further discussion, for a team that still has long shot odds in the futures market. The Timberwolves are +2000 (ninth-best) to win the NBA title and +775 (fifth-best) to win the Western Conference at ESPN BET. I see significant potential value here, because despite their on-court success, the Timberwolves are still receiving “surprising upstart” treatment. Here is why you should instead see them as a legitimate championship contender.
Gobert is not just the best defensive player in the NBA but a top-10 player overall
We’ll start in the middle with the centerpiece of the big trade. The reason why the Gobert deal was panned at the time is because the package the Timberwolves gave up for him is one that would be expected for a tier-one superstar. Gobert is thought of as “just” a great defensive player and a bit of a dinosaur as a “true” center whose sphere of influence is entirely in the paint. In his last seasons with the Jazz, there was also a knock that teams (particularly the Clippers and Mavericks, in the playoffs) could play small-ball and create mismatches that rendered Gobert ineffective.
A few things in response.
Gobert isn’t just a great defender… he’s the best defensive player in the NBA, by a significant margin. In fact, Gobert’s defense is so strong it gives him an argument as a top-10 impact player in the NBA overall.
Gobert finished with the highest Defensive Real Plus Minus (DRPM) score in the NBA in each of the 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons. In both the ’21 and ’22 seasons, Gobert finished with DRPM scores of 8.0, indicating that his team was a full eight points better per 100 possessions with Gobert on the court. That is massive, MVP-level impact. In 2020-21, Gobert finished with the third-highest overall RPM score in the league at 6.6, trailing only Stephen Curry (7.2 RPM) and LeBron James (6.7 RPM). In 2021-22, Gobert’s overall RPM of 8.0 was sixth in the NBA, behind Nikola Jokic (11.8), Joel Embiid (9.8), Curry (9.5), Jayson Tatum (9.0) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (8.2).
In those two seasons, Gobert joined only Jokic, Embiid, Giannis and Curry as the only players in the top-10 in impact as measured by RPM both seasons.
And this season, after a year of adjustments, Gobert is bringing that level of defensive impact to the Timberwolves. Before Gobert, defense was a weakness for the Timberwolves. This season? They are by-far the best defensive team in the NBA. The Timberwolves’ team Defensive Rating of 108.9 points allowed per 100 possessions (per basketball-reference) is 2.4 PP100 better than the second-place Celtics, the same as the gap between the Boston Celtics and the 10th-place Miami Heat.
Ant Man is making the leap
Anthony Edwards is the type of dynamic, athletic, do-everything style wing that has proven to be so valuable in this era of the NBA. He can score at every level and uses the threat of one type of scoring to set up others. His elite shooting (2.5 3PG at 38.5 3P%) forces defenders to close out on the perimeter, which opens up driving lanes that he can take advantage of with his quick first step and explosive finishing ability at the rim. And vice versa, when teams give Edwards space on the perimeter, he punishes them with the trey which he routinely creates off the dribble (only 53.3% of his 3-pointers are assisted).
Edwards has improved significantly as a scorer in every season of his career and has grown into an All-NBA level player this regular season. But, perhaps more exciting, he has stepped up his game in a major way in each of the past two postseasons as well. Here is a chart of Edwards’ scoring average and true shooting percentage (measure of scoring efficiency that accounts for field goals, free throws and 3-pointers) in both the regular season and playoffs over the past three seasons:
If he continues this trend, Edwards could be playing MVP-caliber ball by this postseason.
KAT thrives as ideal lieutenant at both ends
Karl-Anthony Towns was the No. 1 overall pick in 2015 and an All Star by his third season. He peaked as a scorer in 2019-20, scoring 26.5 PPG and is one of the best perimeter-oriented big men in the NBA. Towns has averaged 2.0 3PG on 4.05 3P% in almost 400 games since the start of the 2017-18 campaign. He has averaged more than 20 PPG in every season since his rookie year.
However Towns have struggled over the years defending large, physical centers. Plus, since he isn’t an elite ball-handler and 92.4% of his 3-pointers have been assisted, defenses can scheme him out of peak effectiveness on offense in big matchups. Thus, Gobert’s presence in the paint and Edwards’ ascension to top scoring option on offense have helped Towns have maximum impact. The big man is free to thrive at what he does best and cover his biggest weaknesses.
Individual Futures outlook
The Timberwolves are in play for several individual awards. Gobert is currently the odds-on favorite (-220) to win his fourth Defensive Player of the Year award and barring injury I consider this likely to happen. Chris Finch has the second shortest odds (+250) to win Coach of the Year and if the Timberwolves maintain the top seed out West over the Oklahoma City Thunder he has a good chance to surpass OKC head coach Mark Daignault (+125) for the award. Edwards has the seventh-shortest odds to win MVP but is a long shot at +5000 and is unlikely to realistically compete without a major statistical jump.
Team Futures outlook
The Timberwolves have a rare NBA commodity in a “Big Three” of All-Star level talent that actually fits well together and provides synergy. Gobert is one of the few centers in the league big enough to defend Nikola Jokic and because Towns is a big power forward, opponents can’t utilize small-ball lineups to create mismatches on Gobert without opening themselves up to being dominated in the middle by Minnesota’s two elite big men.
The Wolves also have a veteran, playoffs-tested floor general in Mike Conley Jr., an athletic 3-and-D wing that completes the starting lineup in Jaden McDaniels, and a productive, veteran-laden bench led by Naz Reid (+2500 for Sixth Man of the Year) and Kyle Anderson.
Put this together, and the Timberwolves have a team built not just for regular season success, but for postseason success as well. we’ve seen both the Phoenix Suns (2021) and the Denver Nuggets (2023) leap to the NBA Finals over the past three seasons. This season, the Timberwolves have everything they need to follow in those footsteps and potentially win the West. At such long odds (+2000 champion, +775 to win West), Minnesota offers legitimate value in the futures market this season.
This story originally appeared on ESPN
