Increasingly in the panorama of pro-Ukrainian analysts, you see disenchanted people predicting that the siege of Avdiivka is rapidly becoming ‘Bakhmut 2.0’.
On a fast and shallow reading of this reference we understand that they fear the city will fall with a lot of losses for Kiev – and that’s exactly the case.
But there’s more to this: in Bakhmut – and also in Mariupol – there was the same dynamic at play where, at a certain point during the siege, the military leadership of Ukraine knew it was futile to persist, and wanted to retreat saving the elite forces there to fight another day, in better fortified positions.
In both these cities’ cases – and now Avdiivka – the civilian leadership around President Volodymyr Zelensky insisted its forces put up a valiant fight ‘to the end,’ which they did.
While it can be validly argued that by retreating non-stop, they’d soon end up without any territory, on the other hand, the useless sacrifice of some of the most battle-worthy Ukrainian troops was sorely missed when it was time for them to launch the summer offensive.
Now, in Avdiivka, Zelensky has fired too-independent General Valery Zaluzhny, and new appointee Oleksandr Syrsky will certainly heed the President’s call for a desperate defense.
It turns out that Ukraine is indeed reinforcing Avdiivka, reportedly with one of the best brigades in the Ukrainian army, the 3rd Assault Brigade.
Forbes reported:
“Brig. Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of the Tavriya group of forces in Avdiivka, announced the reinforcement on Telegram on Saturday. ‘We strengthen the blocking line, set up additional firing positions and use fresh effective forces’, Tarnavskyi wrote. ‘Logistical delivery continues’.
That the Ukrainians would reinforce Avdiivka was not a foregone conclusion. In apparently choosing to stay and fight, Ukrainian forces are accepting enormous risk.
After four months of hard fighting, Russian troops from the 2nd and 41st Combined Arms Armies finally breached Avdiivka—a key Ukrainian stronghold just five miles northwest of Russian-occupied Donetsk—earlier this month and approached within a few hundred yards of the main road by which the Ukrainian garrison, centered on the 110th Mechanized Brigade, gets supplies into the city.”
The choice is to pull back the 110th Brigade’s survivors or reinforce them to try to push the superior Russian forces away from the supply lines.
The decision is certain to have been made away from the battlefield. Unpopular ‘the butcher’ Syrsky, it may be remembered, has a reputation for accepting high casualties in stubborn, static fights.
The response may include the deployment of elements of the 3rd Assault Brigade. Since December, the unit has been in reserve in Kramatorsk, 50 miles north of Avdiivka.
“The 2,000-person brigade fought one of the last winning battles of Ukraine’s 2023 offensive and liberated the town of Andriivka, 25 miles north of Avdiivka. The victory earned the year-old brigade an opportunity to rest, retrain, recruit new soldiers and, if rumors are true, re-equip with American-made M-2 fighting vehicles.”
The width of the corridor to supply most of #Avdiivka is less than 5 km. Ukraine must either hold (or even better: widen) that corridor, or it should start withdrawing its troops from the almost-encircled parts of the town. pic.twitter.com/lUY1KC1LgX
— Julian Röpcke (@JulianRoepcke) February 12, 2024
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This story originally appeared on TheGateWayPundit
