UFC 298 predictions: Late ‘Prelims’ undercard preview | Volkanovski vs. Topuria

After a bold — but ultimately disastrous — attempt to unseat Islam Makhachev on super short notice at UFC 294 back in Oct. 2023, Alexander Volkanovski looks to prove he’s still the cream of the crop at 145 pounds when he battles Ilia Topuria inside Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif., this weekend (Sat., Feb. 17, 2024).

UFC 298 also sees Paulo Costa make his first appearance since 2022 against Robert Whittaker (we hope) and Merab Dvalishvili welcome Henry Cejudo back to the Octagon in a 135-pound showdown that could decide the next Bantamweight contender.

We’ve got four more UFC 298 “Prelims” undercard bouts to examine (checkout the first batch here), all of them on ESPN+/ESPN. Buckle up and let’s have a look …

115 lbs.: Amanda Lemos vs. Mackenzie Dern

A 7-1 run — capped by back-to-back finishes of Michelle Waterson-Gomez and Marina Rodriguez — earned Amanda Lemos (13-3-1) a title shot in Aug. 2023. Though she managed to last the distance, that proved her only achievement as Zhang Weili overpowered her for 25 minutes.

Her 11 professional finishes include eight knockouts.

Once 6-1 in the Octagon, Mackenzie Dern (13-4) now finds herself 2-3 in her last five. Her two-fight 2023 campaign saw her demolish Angela Hill in a career-best performance before succumbing to Jessica Andrade’s power six months later (watch highlights).

She steps in for Tatiana Suarez on around one month’s notice.

Though I understand Dern’s desire to bounce back from that rough performance against Andrade, this looks a lot more like repeat than redemption. She doesn’t have the takedowns to recreate Zhang’s wrestling clinic, so if she wants to put Lemos on her back, she’ll have to overwhelm her with power and volume.

And that’s not the best strategy against a tank of a Strawweight with similar (or greater) power in her hands.

Both women are inconsistent enough that Dern still has a chance — I vividly remember Lemos gassing out after one against Hill and struggling to figure out the much smaller Waterson-Gomez’s striking. Still, Dern’s defense is too leaky and her wrestling too limited for me to pick against “Amandinha.” In the end, Dern falls to 1-2 in UFC against Amandas after running headlong into a fight-ending right hand.

Prediction: Lemos via first round technical knockout

265 lbs.: Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Justin Tafa

After alternating wins and losses for half a decade, Marcos Rogerio de Lima (21-10-1) finally found his footing with a 4-1 run. His efforts earned him a main card slot on UFC 291, where Derrick Lewis handed him his first (technical) knockout loss in more than 10 years via 33-second flying knee (watch it here).

“Pezao” will enjoy an inch of height and reach on “Bad Man.”

New Zealand’s Justin Tafa (7-3) entered the Octagon on the heels of three straight wins, only to drop three of his first four in the world’s largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion. Undeterred, he went unbeaten in his next four, though he did become the first UFC Heavyweight to miss weight in the process.

All seven of his professional wins have come via knockout inside of two rounds.

“Pezao” is a truly fascinating specimen — few fighters are more adept at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory (save perhaps Ion Cutelaba and Michael Johnson). He has many ways to win this, whether by taking down Tafa and brutalizing him on the ground or just slugging it out. The second option is risky, sure, but Tafa’s best win came over Austen Lane and de Lima is a fair bit more fearsome than that.

He could just as easily bungle it, whether by leaving himself vulnerable like he did against Lewis or somehow contriving to find his way onto his back. I just think he’s got too much experience and too many weapons. In short, de Lima bullies Tafa to the mat in the opening minutes and mauls him from there.

Prediction: de Lima via first round technical knockout

135 lbs.: Rinya Nakamura vs. Carlos Vera

Rinya Nakamura (8-0) capped off his dominant “Road to UFC” run by smoking countryman Toshiomi Kazama in 33 seconds at the Finale. His sophomore effort pitted him against DWCS vet Fernie Garcia, whom Nakamura dominated on the mat en route to a clean sweep on the scorecards.

He’s knocked out five pro foes and submitted one other.

Ecuador’s Carlos Vera (11-3) rode a four-fight win streak into The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) house, where he represented Team McGregor. Like most of his teammates, his tenure proved a short one, dropping a unanimous decision to Brad Katona in the opening round.

He replaces Brady Hiestand on less than one month’s notice.

Vera’s lack of takedown defense proved his undoing on the show and he’s up against a borderline Olympic-level wrestler here, so the writing’s on the wall for this one. I can’t imagine him keeping the fight standing for any meaningful length of time and even if he does, he has Nakamura’s nuclear left hand to deal with.

His only real chance lies in catching Nakamura in a guillotine as the latter shoots in, but while Nakamura is still fairly early in his professional career, he’s too sharp to fall into a trap that obvious. When the dust settles, Nakamura either blows him away against the fence or grinds his way to an easy win.

Prediction: Nakamura via unanimous decision

205 lbs.: Zhang Mingyang vs. Brendson Ribeiro

Zhang Mingyang (16-6) put a 2-3 skid behind him to conquer China’s Heavyweight scene with eight consecutive first round finishes. He entered his 2022 “Road to UFC” showdown with George Tokkos as a significant underdog, but needed less than two minutes to stop Tokkos and claim a UFC contract.

He fights for the first time in nearly two years after a pair of planned debuts fell through in 2023.

Back-to-back, ground-and-pound finishes earned Brendson Ribeiro (15-5) a spot on Contender Series, where he took on heavily-favored Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) champion, Bruno Lopes. “The Gorilla’s” power ultimately won out, earning him a UFC contract and his eleventh first-round finish. All of his wins have come inside the distance, nine of them via knockout.

Though he developed in a small pond, Zhang has the potential to be one of China’s better MMA exports. He’s an impressive athlete and shows off some impressive veteran savvy for a 25-year-old; by my reckoning, his ceiling is significantly higher than Ribeiro’s.

The question, of course, is whether he’s better now.

I think so because Ribeiro doesn’t have much depth to his standup besides jabs and crosses and is hopeless on the ground. He definitely has a chance to clip Zhang, but the ease with which “Mountain Tiger” absorbed Tokkos’ best shots suggests that Ribeiro’s the likelier of the two to fall from a stray shot. Zhang smokes him with a straight right in the opening minutes.

Prediction: Zhang via first round knockout

Now this? UFC 298 is a proper card. See you Saturday, Maniacs.

Current Prediction Record for 2024: 16-11

LIVE! Watch UFC 298 PPV On ESPN+ Here!

WORLD FEATHERWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif., on Sat., Feb. 17, 2024, for the first time in more than two years with its latest pay-per-view (PPV) show. In the ESPN+-streamed PPV main event, reigning Featherweight roost-ruler, Alexander Volkanovski, will defend his 145-pound strap against undefeated surging Spanish contender, Ilia Topuria. In addition, former Middleweight kingpin, Robert Whittaker, will finally square off with mercurial mauler, Paulo Costa, in UFC 298’s co-feature. UFC 298 will also feature the returns of Ian Garry, Geoff Neal, Henry Cejudo, Merab Dvalishvili and so much more!

Don’t miss a single second of EPIC face-punching action!

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 298 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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