UFC Mexico City odds: Latest Vegas lines and betting guide | Moreno vs. Royval 2

After hitting the west coast for UFC 298 last week, the Octagon heads south of the border this weekend (Sat., Feb. 24, 2024) when Brandon Moreno looks to defend Mexico City against former foe, Brandon Royval. Fellow hometown hero, Yair Rodriguez, also sees action in a rematch of his own against Brian Ortega, while next-gen finishers, Daniel Zellhuber and Raul Rosas Jr., battle Francisco Prado and Ricky Turcios, respectively.

It may not be another long weekend, but I’m sure some extra UFC Mexico City scratch would be a good consolation prize. Here’s how to get it …

What Went Wrong at UFC 298?

Not a thing — a rare perfect evening.

UFC Mexico City Odds For The Under Card:

Raoni Barcelos (-175) vs. Cristian Quinonez (+145)

Barcelos has dropped four of his last five, but considering the worst of them was either Timur Valiev or Victor Henry, I’m not prepared to call him washed yet. He’s far too good a grappler for Quinonez to handle and can still hold his own on the feet, so put your faith in him.

Mateus Mendonca (-162) vs. Jesus Aguilar (+136)

After that inexplicably awful gameplan against Nate Maness, Mendonca will need some seriously impressive performances for me to trust him with money.

Edgar Chairez (-355) vs. Daniel Lecerda (+280)

Leave it alone. Both men are seriously flawed enough to lose in embarrassing fashion.

Fares Ziam (-218) vs. Claudio Puelles (+180)

Even with Puelles’ penchant for leg locks, I’m comfortable recommending a bet on Ziam. “Smile Killer” has noteworthy height and reach advantages, much better striking and improved takedown defense that should let him take apart Puelles at range. Whether Ziam is his usual patient self or the dialed-in killer that touched up Michal Figlak, it’s his fight to lose.

Luis Rodriguez (-115) vs. Denys Bondar (-105)

I’d ordinarily hesitate to recommend a bet on Bondar — who’s looked so mediocre in the Octagon — but Rodriguez really isn’t very good. He went life-and-death with a .500 journeyman last time out and was lucky to escape with a split decision three fights ago. Try a small bit on Bondar, parlayed with the heavy favorite of your choice.

Felipe dos Santos (-298) vs. Victor Altamirano (+240)

“Lipe Detona” still has a lot to prove in my book. We already knew he could hold his own in a slugfest, but it remains to be seen whether he can force unwilling participants into one. That said, while Altamirano’s willingness to spam takedowns gives him a potential avenue to victory, dos Santos’ volume and gas tank make him a reasonably safe investment.

Muhammad Naimov (-360) vs. Erik Silva (+285)

Naimov’s takedown defense has held up in back-to-back fights and Silva is ostensibly a lesser fighter than Jamie Mullarkey or Nathaniel Wood, so use Naimov as a parlay anchor.

UFC Mexico City Odds For The Main Card:

Brandon Moreno (-270) vs. Brandon Royval (+220)

Moreno beats Royval for the same reason Alexandre Pantoja did: too sharp a striker to get clipped by a wild strike, too good a jiu-jitsu player to fall into an out-of-nowhere submission, and too good a wrestler for Royval to dictate where the fight takes place. Someone who’s spent more than one hour in the cage with Deiveson Figueiredo isn’t going to so thoroughly lose his composure that his technical superiority ceases to matter.

Yair Rodriguez (-162) vs. Brian Ortega (+136)

Moderate bet on “Pantera.” Ortega has one win in almost six years and was getting thoroughly out-classed on the feet in their first meeting.

Daniel Zellhuber (-278) vs. Francisco Prado (+225)

Try a bit on Prado. As durable and dangerous as Zellhuber is, he’s worryingly prone to eating heaps of power punches before finally shifting into gear. That eight-inch reach advantage is also offset by the fact that Christos Giagos — who himself gave up a half-foot of length — managed to get inside and use Zellhuber’s skull as a speedbag without much resistance early on. His defensive lapses — combined with his occasional habit of just sitting in cruise control for uncomfortable amounts of time — make Prado the pick.

Raul Rosas Jr (-250) vs. Ricky Turcios (+205)

Flyer on Turcios. “Pretty Ricky” may be the lesser wrestler, but he pushes a ferocious pace and is borderline impossible to finish. His struggles come against opponents with strong range management and lateral movement, neither of which are in the hard-charging Rosas’ arsenal. We’ve seen Rosas fade down the stretch, so a bit on Turcios makes sense.

Yazmin Jauregui (-535) vs. Sam Hughes (+400)

Not worth betting straight-up, but a flyer on Under 2.5 at +165 seems like a solid play. Hughes gets hit a lot and all seven of Jauregui’s knockout wins have come in under two rounds. Conversely, Jauregui’s chin is her biggest weakness, so it wouldn’t be overly shocking to see Hughes clip her in return.

Manuel Torres (-162) vs. Chris Duncan (+136)

It’s a bit too volatile to merit a bet. Torres is the pick on paper — being a heavy hitter against a defensive sieve — but he’s also got two submission losses and Duncan can wrestle if needed.

UFC Mexico City Best Bets:

• Single bet — Francisco Prado: $30 to make $67.50
• Single bet — Ricky Turcios: $30 to make $61.50
• Single bet — Jauregui-Hughes Under 2.5: $40 to make $66
• Parlay — Muhammad Naimov and Denys Bondar: $40 to make $59.78
• Parlay — Yair Rodriguez and Brandon Moreno: $50 to make $60.81
• Parlay — Fares Ziam and Raoni Barcelos: $40 to make $51.69

Initial Investment For 2024: $600
Current Total: $745.20

LIVE! Stream UFC Mexico City On ESPN+

PIVOTAL FLYWEIGHT FRACAS! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico, on Feb. 24, 2024, with a pivotal Flyweight fracas between former 125-pound kingpin, Brandon Moreno, and most recent title challenger, Brandon Royval, who replaces the red-hot (and injured) Iraqi “Prince,” Amir Albazi. In UFC Mexico City’s ESPN+-streamed co-main event, top-ranked Featherweight contenders, Yair Rodriguez (No. 3) and Brian Ortega (No. 4), will run it back after their initial encounter ended prematurely via gross injury.

Don’t miss a single second of face-punching action!

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Mexico City fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN+) at 10 p.m. ET.

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