The world’s media went into overdrive on Wednesday after the chairman of the US House Intelligence Committee warned of a “serious national security threat” that multiple sources then identified as Russia’s ambition to deploy a nuclear anti-satellite system in space. But how realistic is this scenario, and how seriously should it be taken? Some say that the US intel leak is what is most worrying.
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It all began on Wednesday morning, when Mike Turner, the Republican chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, sent out a letter to fellow members of Congress, inviting them to a confidential briefing where he would share “information concerning a serious national security threat”. The information, Turner wrote, related to a “destabilising foreign military capability”.
After the briefing, which took place in one of Congress’s classified spaces, Turner issued a statement saying the menace was so serious that President Joe Biden ought to declassify any and all information linked to it so that “Congress, the Administration and our allies can openly discuss the actions necessary to respond”.
Within hours, US broadcaster ABC News broke the news that the threat was related to Russia and its plans to deploy nuclear arms in space. “This would not be to drop a nuclear weapon onto Earth but rather to possibly use against satellites,” the outlet wrote, citing two unnamed sources.
The story quickly snowballed, finally prompting the House Speaker, Republican Mike Johnson, to urge for calm. “There is no need for public alarm,” he told the reporters who had gathered in the Capitol. “We just want to assure everyone: Steady hands are at the wheel, we’re working on it.” He declined to give more details due to the information still being classified.
But by then, most US media had already established the Russia link, and that it was related to the country’s plans to deploy an anti-satellite weapon in space.
No immediate threat
Fraser Jackson, FRANCE 24’s correspondent in Washington, noted that numerous sources had stressed that the information did not pose an immediate threat to the US or its interests. “This is not something that has been launched – but is something that Russia is looking into,” he said.
He also said that the shared intelligence did not appear to be new, and that at least one member of the intelligence committee had acknowledged that he had known about it for at least two years.
Jackson said some were now speculating whether Turned had leaked the information “because he was offended that the Biden administration hadn’t told him personally about it sooner”.
A concept, not a reality
Dr. Paul Dorfman, chairman of the independent non-profit Nuclear Consulting Group and a former adviser to the UK ministry of defence on the dismantling of British nuclear submarines, said he found it “problematic” that classified US information had been leaked this way, and that he did not believe that Russia actually has those capabilities yet.
“Turner has essentially leaked what is considered highly sensitive information. In that sense, he might endanger the provenance of that intelligence source,” he said.
As for the Russian space plans, he underscored that they were not yet a reality. “It’s an idea, a concept, and it has not happened,” he said. “And it’s about a sort of a nuclear capability to knock out early warning defence satellites. So it’s not a question of firing nuke missiles from space.”
Early warning satellites are used to detect ballistic missile launches in time to be able to counter them.
‘A space fantasy’
Dorfman also questioned why Russia would choose to use nuclear capabilities to attack these systems.
“You don’t need a nuclear weapon to blow up a satellite in orbit, because satellites in orbit are hugely delicate. Conventional weapons would be able to do that quite nicely,” he said.
“And it seems impractical, and would be illegal according to non-proliferation treaties,” he added, referring to the 1967 Outer Space Treaty which explicitly prohibits the launch of any objects carrying nuclear arms into orbit.
Instead, he said, the information might have been leaked for completely different reasons.
“Does it have anything to do with the US election? Has it got anything to do with trying to put pressure on US lawmakers in the context of Ukrainian support?”
Turner’s revelation comes amid ramped-up pressure on the Republican-led Congress to pass a $95-billion aid package to Ukraine – which is something Turner supports.
Dorfman also said that Russia, which has denied the alleged space plans, might have planted the information in a bid to scare the West.
“It could be that it’s just some kind of bluff intel from Russia because the word ‘nuclear’ always makes people worried quite widely. And the notion of nuclear in space, this idea that you’ve got something circling overhead that can just pop a missile down, is emotionally unsettling,” he said.
But, he noted, “in terms of reality, and where we are now, it seems to be more of a space fantasy, in my opinion”.
This story originally appeared on France24
