X-Factor! Check out some UFC Mexico City main card predictions | Moreno vs. Royval 2

This weekend (Sat., Feb. 10, 2024), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) ventures forth to Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico, for UFC Mexico City. My lord, an international and free card with an audience likely to erupt for any of its nationals winning a fight? What used to be a common place UFC event now feels like a treat in 2024! Seriously, this card features two excellent and interesting bouts atop the card, then the entire rest of the event is designed blow the roof off that arena.

Mexican MMA talent is the obvious theme here, top-to-bottom. Let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the main- and co-main events:

Lightweight: Daniel Zellhuber vs. Francisco Prado

Best Win for Zellhuber? Christos Giagos For Prado? Ottman Azaitar
Current Streak: Zellhuber has won two straight, whereas Prado rebounded last time out
X-Factor: Both men are quite young (24 and 21 years old respectively)
How these two match up: A pair of young and hungry Lightweight prospects are going to take lumps out of each other until one falls down.

Mexico’s Zellhuber is definitely a physical talent with a good fundamental skill set. Standing 6’1” with a 77” reach, this is a massive Lightweight. In addition to pure size, he can take a shot well and usually return the favor with more force, which is a great way to overcome any technical deficit.

On the other side of the equation, Argentina’s Prado will (understandably) face a severe disadvantage in height and reach. There’s a lot of upside on Prado, however, who brings the aggression and fierceness one would expect of a young veteran. On the whole, he’s an excellent finisher with the toughness to learn on the job in the UFC.

Likely, he learns a lesson about distance here. On paper, both men are fairly well-rounded prospects with some defensive issues who win mostly via physicality, aggression, and grit. That should be a recipe for a barnburner, yet Zellhuber’s massive height and reach feel like such an obvious difference-maker.

It takes a serious gulf in technical ability to overcome eight inches of reach, and I’m not sure Prado has any such advantage. Most likely, he manages to score some shots of his own but ends up frustrated by distance much of the time.

Prediction: Zellhuber via decision

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Bantamweight: Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios

Best Win for Rosas Jr.? Jay Perrin For Turcios? Kevin Natividad
Current Streak: Both men won their last bout
X-Factor: Rosas Jr. is still 19!
How these two match up: I expect chaos.

Rosas Jr. made headlines by debuting inside the Octagon at a ridiculously young age and saying silly things to the media about fighting for the belt right away. The Christian Rodriguez loss was a bit of a reality check, but all the same, Rosas Jr. is a talented grappler with developing knockout power.

Turcios is an Ultimate Fighter (TUF) champion, a veteran with a good deal of experience who thrives in wild fights. Cardio is the name of Turcios’ game, as he’s happy to push a high pace wherever the fight goes, and he tends to do his best work in the latter half of grueling battles.

At the moment, the strengths and weaknesses of Rosas Jr. are well-known. Barring further development — obviously very possible at his age — “El Problema Nina” is a major handful early in fights. He storms out of the gate and absolutely sprints towards the finish, usually looking to take the back and wrangle the neck.

It’s not likely to be that easy against Turcios, a jiu-jitsu black belt who’s been stopped just once in 15 fights. Turcios is an excellent scrambler, the type of difficult-to-hold-down athlete who can really frustrate wrestlers accustomed to dominating from top position. The question here is this: do you believe Rosas Jr. finishes Turcios inside five minutes? If not, he’s going to have a lot of trouble down the stretch.

Turcios loses the first frame, but that volume and activity edge takes over somewhere in the middle of the fight.

Prediction: Turcios via decision

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Women’s Strawweight: Yazmin Jauregui vs. Sam Hughes

Best Win for Jauregui? Iasmin Lucindo For Hughes? Elise Reed
Current Streak: Jauregui lost her last bout, while Hughes returned to the win column
X-Factor: Jauregui enters following her first pro defeat
How these two match up: This looks to be a rebound fight for Tijuana’s Jauregui.

Jauregui debuted with a bit of hype behind her, having won the “Last Latina Standing” three-fight, one-night tournament for Combate Global to score her spot on the roster. A quality kickboxer, Jauregui has a high-volume and aggressive style of striking that has produced seven wins via knockout. Hughes, conversely, is something of a generalist. A solid natural athlete, Hughes actually began her UFC run with an 0-3 start, but she’s since won three of her last four.

Hughes has two potential paths to victory against the clearly better striker: catch her with a big shot or work the wrestling. Hughes has some physicality, but she’s not the heaviest hitter on the feet, and trading power shots with Jauregui seems more likely to end with her hitting the floor.

That leaves takedowns as the more viable option. Unfortunately, Jauregui also has defended every takedown that’s come her way inside the Octagon, and Hughes isn’t an overwhelmingly strong chain wrestler.

Most likely, Jauregui sprawls-and-brawls her way to a decision win or late finish.

Prediction: Jauregui via knockout

Lightweight: Manuel Torres vs. Chris Duncan

Best Win for Torres? Nikolas Motta For Duncan? Omar Morales
Current Streak: Torres has won five straight (two in UFC), while Duncan has won four straight (two in UFC)
X-Factor: Torres has serious punching power
How these two match up: This is a great match up of up-and-coming Lightweight talent.

“El Loco” is aggressive. He’s finished 13 of his 14 victories before the final bell, and both of his UFC performances have ended inside a round via knockout. Strong and confident, Torres is happy to take a shot if necessary, provided he’s able to answer with three of his own. Duncan, meanwhile, is a little more well-rounded in his approach. Mixing takedowns and combination punching up has been his key to success inside the Octagon, but he does have seven wins via stoppage himself.

Between the two, Torres is the nastier puncher, whereas Duncan is more likely to find success with his top control. Though both certainly still have skills in the other areas of fighting, the general feel here is that this will end up a striker vs. wrestler style of fight.

Duncan has the tools to hide his takedowns, but I’m not sure he’s able to get much done on the ground. He’s not a submission, and that’s historically what’s given Torres pause. More to the point, Torres hasn’t lost a fight in nearly five years, and he’s been very difficult to take and hold down recently.

If it becomes a striking match — and it seems like it will — my money is on Torres.

Prediction: Torres via knockout