X-Factor! Check out some UFC Vegas 87 main card predictions | Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev

This weekend (Sat., March 2, 2024), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns home to UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 87. UFC 299 and UFC 300 are two of the most stacked pay-per-view (PPV) events in recent years, and both are scheduled for the next six weeks or so. Did you, motivated fight fan reading this, expect that the only cost of such great events was the PPV price tag? That would be wrong. In fact, the true cost is four abysmal cards from inside the Apex in that same span.

It’s my role to dig through the dreck between the star power.

I got lucky with this event though. UFC should be embarrassed by its middling main event, but genuinely high-quality Flyweight and Bantamweight athletes fill up my portion of the evening. Let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the main event:

Light Heavyweight: Vitor Petrino vs. Tyson Pedro

Best Win for Vitor Petrino? Marcin Prachnio For Pedro? Khalil Rountree Jr.
Current Streak: Petrino has won three straight inside the Octagon (10-0 overall), while Pedro rebounded last time out
X-Factor: Pedro is an ultra athletic underachiever
How these two match up: I expect violence.

At 26 years of age, Petrino is actually a really exciting prospect at 205 lbs. Outside of his kickboxing skill and obvious knockout power, the Brazilian can fight hard for three rounds, which is an unusual trait for the division. In addition, he’s shown good composure and patience for a young fighter with so many finishes.

It’s hard not to talk about Pedro without mentioning his potential. Every so often, the Aussie looks like a world-beater, showing off the size and dynamic ability that has scored so many knockouts. Then, he looks flat, gets tired, and leaves viewers wondering what has to click for Pedro to climb the ladder.

The long and short of this fight is that somebody is going to hit the floor. They both have slick offensive kickboxing and nasty power, yet neither is a defensive wizard. That’s a recipe for a stoppage inside ten minutes!

The advantage on Petrino’s side is that he’s never been stopped and fights more effectively down the stretch. Conversely, Pedro has more high-level experience, as well as more submission finishes, so perhaps he has the option to switch up the strategy with a takedown or two.

It’s hard to be overly confident when this much power is in play, but I like the looks of Petrino. Pedro is a reasonable step up, and thus far, “Icao” has passed every step with flying colors. Petrino has the ability to trade with Pedro, earn his respect, and slowly take over as the fight wears on.

Prediction: Petrino via knockout

Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images

Flyweight: Alex Perez vs. Muhammad Mokaev

Best Win for Vitor Perez? Jussier Formiga For Mokaev? Tim Elliott
Current Streak: Perez has lost two straight, while Mokaev has started his UFC career with a five-fight win streak
X-Factor: Perez fights get cancelled at the last-second with alarming frequency
How these two match up: Given how many times UFC tried to book Alex Perez vs. Matt Schnell, it would be extremely funny if both actually fight on the same card, yet not against each other.

Is Perez cursed? Probably not. More likely, he just cuts too much weight, which explains the injuries and backstage seizures. When Perez is in the cage, however, he’s a top-notch wrestler with big power in his hands and kicks, as well as solid submission ability. His issues making it to the cage have made people forget just how dangerous Perez was on his rise to the title shot!

Mokaev, conversely, has been a model of consistency. Even when his leg was ripped to shreds at UFC 286, he was back in the cage competing and winning just five months later! A standout wrestler, Mokaev pushes a hard pace and is developing quickly into a top talent.

If I could get a written guarantee from the fighting gods that Perez would perform like he was back in 2020, I would back him in a heartbeat. On paper, Perez has the wrestling to keep up with Mokaev, and he’s the much more ferocious striker. He also has great cardio, so the typical Mokaev strategy of drowning him with wrestling feels unlikely to work.

I have received no such promise, however. Since November 2020, Perez has spent just 3.5 minutes actually competing as a professional in the Octagon. Activity and momentum are so important at the elite level, particularly in a division like Flyweight where everyone moves so fast and timing becomes even more vital.

Likely, Perez has some rust to shake off. By the time he gets warmed up, Mokaev will already be at least a round up on him, and “The Punisher” knows how to keep that ball rolling.

Prediction: Mokaev via decision

Photo by Jordan Jones/Getty Images

Middleweight: Eryk Anders vs. Jamie Pickett

Best Win for Vitor Anders? Brendan Allen For Pickett? Laureano Staropoli
Current Streak: Anders lost his last bout, whereas Pickett has lost four straight
X-Factor: It’s victory or release for Pickett
How these two match up: Middleweights in the Apex, a combination like dirt in an open wound.

Anders has been roughly the exact same fight since his UFC debut in 2017. The Southpaws primary assets are strength and durability, as well as a rather heavy left hand. Every other fight, he opts to stop throwing his left hand and try to shoot for not-very-good single leg takedowns — it rarely works.

Pickett is something of a generalist. He’s not awful anywhere, but he also isn’t a standout knockout artist, dominant wrestler, or submission ace, which means his opponents are often able to choose where to engage him.

Anders isn’t amazing, but there’s a reason he’s been on the roster for seven years. He’s consistent, a good test of separating the upper half of Middleweight from those unable to hack it at the highest level. In this bout, he’ll get the striking match he desires, and it doesn’t feel like Pickett will have the ability to hurt him.

Even if the stand up unexpectedly goes against him, Anders can probably jam Pickett into the fence and cage control him for three rounds.

Prediction: Anders via decision

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Bantamweight: Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Bekzat Almakhan

Best Win for Vitor Nurmagomedov? Raoni Barcelos For Almakhan? Mauro Mastromarini
Current Streak: Nurmagomedov is 4-0 in the UFC (16-0 overall), while Almakhan debuts riding a nine-fight win streak
X-Factor: Nurmagomedov returns after a bad shoulder injury
How these two match up: It’s a strange booking.

Nurmagomedov is currently the Bantamweight nobody wants to fight … if the rumors are true at least. The Dagestani talent is an elite wrestler with knockout power, so it certainly makes sense why he would be avoided by everyone other than Cory Sandhagen. At the same time, he also hasn’t beaten any elite opposition yet. That won’t change here, because nobody knows who Almakhan is! Fortunately, the Kazakh fighter is accomplished in his own right, and he’s stopped 13 opponents via knockout.

Umar Nurmagomedov is not a fair debut opponent. This is a contender who would be favored by odds makers against many in the Top 10, yet Almakhan has to handle the jump in competition and his first UFC experience all at once? That’s an absurd task. Nurmagomedov has the smothering wrestling style that rarely fails, because it offers little room for the opponent to do much of anything.

I expect Almakhan to have a solid UFC career. I do not, however, expect that career to begin with a victory.

Prediction: Nurmagomedov via decision

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Flyweight: Matt Schnell vs. Steve Erceg

Best Win for Vitor Schnell? Louis Smolka For Erceg? David Dvorak
Current Streak: Schnell lost his last bout, while Erceg is 2-0 in UFC
X-Factor: Schnell is not the most durable Flyweight
How these two match up: This should be super fun.

Schnell doesn’t know how to have a boring fight. A jiu-jitsu black belt with gnarly calf kicks and good punching power, Schnell routinely throws himself into the fray … even when it’s not in his best interest! Erceg, meanwhile, is a really skilled new face in the Flyweight mix. His grappling is excellent — the Aussie has finished nine foes via submission — but he also manages distance really well and builds beautiful Muay Thai combinations on the feet.

Schnell is the more dynamic athlete here. He hits harder and has a lot of cage time with Top 10 Flyweights, which is valuable. Erceg, conversely, did have a bit of trouble with the raw physicality of Alessandro Costa in his last appearance, so there appears to be a clear avenue to victory for Schnell.

The problem is the Schnell is 34 years old and gets rocked in most of his fights. He’s lost two of his last three, and his sole victory saw him go life-and-death with Su Mudaerji. Add in a very difficult weight cut, and it feels like Erceg’s composure and consistency is probably the safer bet.

Maybe Schnell blows him out of the water for an early finish, but Erceg’s never been stopped. Given time to work, I expect “Astro Boy” to land heavy eventually and start to take over as a result.

Prediction: Erceg via decision