UFC 299 predictions: Late ‘Prelims’ undercard preview | O’Malley vs. Vera 2

Vengeance is on the 305 menu inside Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla., this weekend (Sat., March 9, 2024) when Bantamweight roost-ruler, Sean O’Malley, rematches lone conqueror, Marlon Vera, atop UFC 299.

The blockbuster pay-per-view (PPV) show also sees Benoit Saint Denis meet Dustin Poirier in a tantalizing Lightweight war, Gilbert Burns look to halt the rise of Jack Della Maddalena, and Petr Yan attempt to right the ship at Song Yadong’s expense.

ESPN (and ESPNN) hosts UFC 299’s final four “Prelims” undercard bouts (checkout the first batch here), so let’s see what in store …

265 lbs.: Curtis Blaydes vs. Jailton Almeida

Curtis Blaydes (17-4) put himself on the brink of a title shot with a 7-1 run, capped off by an injury stoppage against Tom Aspinall. This set up an April 2023 main event against Sergei Pavlovich, who battered Blaydes en route to a first round finish (watch it).

“Razor” will enjoy an inch of height and reach on “Malhadinho.”

A dominant Contender Series upset of Nasrudin Nasrudinov earned Jailton Almeida (20-2) his ninth consecutive victory and a UFC contract. He now sits at 6-0 in the Octagon, most recently dominating Derrick Lewis in his second consecutive main event.

Twelve of his 19 finishes have come via submission.

I just cannot see this going well for Almeida. “Malhadinho” hasn’t shown any meaningful striking skills or, more critically, any setups to his takedowns beyond an extremely predictable front kick. Pure grappling ability has carried him past a “Who’s Who” of incompetent wrestlers, but it’s not going to cut it against someone with Blaydes’ pedigree.

Blaydes is levels above Almeida on the feet, will likely be close to 30 pounds bigger in the cage, and is too seasoned a wrestler to fall victim to Almeida’s usual approach. In short, he sprawls-and-brawls his way to a dominant decision.

Prediction: Blaydes via unanimous decision

125 lbs.: Katlyn Cerminara vs. Maycee Barber

Katlyn Cerminara (18-5) put a 1-2 skid behind her to win four straight, including a “Fight of the Night” split decision over Amanda Ribas. This set up a pivotal clash of contenders with Manon Fiorot, which saw Cerminara miss weight en route to a unanimous decision loss.

She is the taller woman by four inches and sports a three-inch reach advantage.

Maycee Barber (13-2) smashed her way to three knockouts in her first three UFC bouts, only to then lose two straight to Roxanne Modafferi and Alexa Grasso. Undeterred, “The Future” enters the cage this Saturday on the heels of five straight wins, among them a bonus-winning beatdown of Amanda Ribas in June 2023.

She’s knocked out six pro foes and submitted two others.

Though Cerminara is unlikely to attack Barber’s awful takedown defense the way Andrea Lee and the aforementioned Ribas did, this seems like a much rougher matchup for her than the odds suggest. As ferocious as “The Future” is on the inside, she hasn’t shown the cage craft needed to hunt down the taller, ranger Cerminara, who largely held her own against a stronger striker than Barber in Fiorot.

Barber’s wrestling game is too weak for her grappling advantage to play a factor — and even though she’s by far the better finisher — she’ll have a heck of a time getting close enough to land telling blows. Raw aggression could still pay dividends for her, but odds are that Cerminara uses her length and sharp shoots her way to a decision.

Prediction: Cerminara via split decision

155 lbs.: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael Dos Anjos

Mateusz Gamrot (23-2) lost his undefeated record to Guram Kutateladze in his UFC debut, though he did walk away with “Fight of the Night” as a consolation prize. “Gamer” has since won six of seven, notably upsetting Arman Tsarukyan and Rafael Fiziev along the way.

He stands two inches taller than Rafael dos Anjos (32-15) and boasts a half-inch reach advantage.

dos Anjos returned to the Lightweight division after a 1-4 skid and quickly picked up where he left off, defeating Paul Felder and Renato Moicano in back-to-back five-rounders. A knockout loss to Rafael Fiziev sent him back to 170 pounds, where he choked out Bryan Barberena before losing a competitive decision to Vicente Luque.

His professional finishes are split 11:5 between submissions and knockouts.

I will always respect dos Anjos’ willingness to face the most toxic stylistic matchups imaginable, but I just do not see this going well for him. In addition to boasting the sort of takedown prowess that’s long given “RDA” problems, Gamrot is the rare Lightweight who can match (or exceed) dos Anjos’ motor. Though dos Anjos does have the edge on the feet, Gamrot’s both competent enough to hold his own there and ludicrously tough enough to take dos Anjos’ best shot.

Gamrot is six years younger, infinitely less shopworn and has a style against which dos Anjos consistently struggles. In the end, constant takedowns carry “Gamer” to his third straight victory.

Prediction: Gamrot via unanimous decision

135 lbs.: Pedro Munhoz vs. Kyler Phillips

Pedro Munhoz (20-8) capped off a red-hot 7-1 run by knocking out Cody Garbrandt to claim his fourth UFC post-fight bonus. He’s just 2-5 since, most recently losing a contentious decision to Marlin Vera in Aug. 2023.

His 13 finishes include nine submissions, six of them guillotines.

Kyler Phillips (11-2) fought his way to a 4-1 Octagon start, the lone loss a controversial decision against Raulian Paiva, before spending nearly 18 months on the sidelines. He returned to action in Aug. 2023 with a unanimous decision over veteran Raoni Barcelos.

“The Matrix” will enjoy two inches of height and seven inches of reach on Munhoz.

The key to beating Munhoz is an open secret. While he’s functionally indestructible — a ferocious low kicker and a venomous grappler to boot — poor footwork and cage cutting leave him unable to force the close-quarters slugfests in which he thrives. Phillips is quick, nimble and, most important, patient enough to run circles around Munhoz all night and punish his iffy striking defense.

Munhoz only needs a few calf kicks to take away Phillips’ mobility advantage, of course, but Munhoz’s shortcomings mean Phillips will have to give him those opportunities. Considering how well Phillips minded his P’s and Q’s against the very savvy Barcelos, I don’t see that happening. On the contrary, Phillips hits-and-runs his way to a dominant decision.

Prediction: Phillips by unanimous decision

UFC 299 is one heck of a way to wash the taste of “Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev” out of our mouths. See you Saturday, Maniacs.

Current Prediction Record for 2024: 31-15

LIVE! Watch UFC 299 PPV On ESPN+ Here!

WORLD FEATHERWEIGHT CHAMPIONSHIP! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif., on Sat., Feb. 17, 2024, for the first time in more than two years with its latest pay-per-view (PPV) show. In the ESPN+-streamed PPV main event, reigning Featherweight roost-ruler, Alexander Volkanovski, will defend his 145-pound strap against undefeated surging Spanish contender, Ilia Topuria. In addition, former Middleweight kingpin, Robert Whittaker, will finally square off with mercurial mauler, Paulo Costa, in UFC 298’s co-feature. UFC 298 will also feature the returns of Ian Garry, Geoff Neal, Henry Cejudo, Merab Dvalishvili and so much more!

Don’t miss a single second of EPIC face-punching action!

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 299 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 299: “O’Malley vs. Vera 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.