How the NFL draft affects the creation of the season schedule

GREEN BAY, Wis. — How does the NFL draft shape this season’s schedule?

Maybe a little bit, but not a lot.

At the start of the draft in Green Bay, Wis, the league announced the schedule would be released May 14. Like the draft, the schedule release has grown from a procedural box to be checked to a national sports holiday, with teams staging schedule-reveal parties and the like.

It has got to drive competing leagues crazy that something so mundane as the NFL talking about its slate of games attracts more attention than, say, the NBA playoffs. It’s good to be the king.

Regardless, while hundreds of thousands of people converged on Titletown for the annual player selection, a team in New York continued to sift through hundreds of trillions of potential schedules.

Obviously, only a minuscule fraction of those possibilities get a deep dive, but the NFL has 5,000 computers running 24/7 around the world to find the optimal configuration of 272 games, 18 weeks, five game days — everything but Tuesday and Wednesday — and 10 media partners — or 11, if YouTube jumps into the mix.

It’s an impossibly complex jigsaw puzzle, and one that’s never quite perfect. If one schedule is good for the Rams, it might not be as good for the 49ers. ESPN might love this one, but it’s not ideal for Amazon. This permutation is incredible… except it puts Denver on the road three weeks in a row. On and on.

But what about the draft? How does that factor in?

First, understand the schedule used to be assembled by hand and in many years would have been finished by now. There were many years when the late, great Val Pinchbeck would put it together then go down to Augusta to enjoy the Masters, and that tournament was in the books two weeks ago.

These days, the schedule is released two weeks after the 32 teams select their rookies-to-be, and some clubs become more watchable, especially early in the season when there’s so much curiosity and anticipation about how the rookies will do.

Remember, though, teams that draft first and land the highest-profile prospects were the worst performers from the previous season. So it’s not as if one first-year player is going to make them relevant.

For instance, with Jacksonville trading up to draft two-way star Travis Hunter second overall, does that mean the Jaguars are going to get a bunch of prime-time games in 2025?

Certainly not. It does create some intrigue, however, about how they’ll use a guy who can and wants to play both receiver and defensive back. A similar level of curiosity also could extend to quarterback Shedeur Sanders, who was projected as a potential first-round pick before falling to the Cleveland Browns in the fifth round.

“We’re always prepared for surprises,” said Mike North, the NFL’s vice president of broadcast planning. “But if everything goes the way you’re expecting it to go, the draft probably isn’t going to have a major impact on the scheduling process. Teams play their way into prime time. They don’t draft their way into prime time.”

Most of the key scheduling decisions have been made already. The schedule-making team — a group that gets bigger every year — will react to which franchises got a little better or more interesting but ideally those improvements support scheduling decisions that have already been made, as opposed to justifying a start-from-scratch reboot.

There is a big unknown lurking out there, though: What is Aaron Rodgers planning to do?

Will he retire or not? Will he wind up with the Pittsburgh Steelers?

If Aaron Rodgers signs with the Steelers, his Pittsburgh debut might make sense for a nationally televised game.

(Seth Wenig / Associated Press)

That could significantly influence the schedule the league chooses. The Steelers are going to get a healthy share of prime-time games no matter what. They have a rich history and a huge national following. But it makes a big difference if it’s Mason Rudolph starting at quarterback or Rodgers, especially with games coming up against Green Bay and at the New York Jets.

If it’s Rodgers going up against his old teams, that’s must-watch TV.

There’s a good chance we won’t have an answer to that by the time a schedule is chosen and released, but you can bet the NFL is monitoring that situation closely.

Building a schedule is about striking a balance — what are your priorities, and what issues are you willing to live with?

The goal is to maximize viewership and minimize competitive inequities. That means finding the closest proximity to perfection, and part of that is watching the draft and evaluating if there’s anything that happened that would cause you to rethink all 272 games.

The schedule-making team could hand over an excellent option today. It could hand over 40 excellent options. Now it’s all about pushing and pushing to find a version that’s even better.

It’s all about when commissioner Roger Goodell wants it. The schedule team has entered its two-week stretch run, and in recent years the schedules chosen were created after May 1. We’re entering the playoffs for potential schedules, if you will.

So as the lights dim in Titletown, they turn up in Slate City.