Shoppers could begin seeing store shelves thinning out by the summer for imported goods shipped from China — with mom-and-pop businesses facing the highest risk of shortages, industry experts told The Post.
US businesses began scaling back or canceling orders as President Trump ratcheted up the trade war with Beijing after returning to the White House.
The volume of goods shipped from China that is scheduled to arrive at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach between the week of May 4 and May 10 has dropped 43%, compared to the same period last year, according to container-tracking software provider Vizion.
The decline follows an increase of 57% for the week of April 20-26, the data showed, as importers frontloaded shipments ahead of Trump’s steep tariffs against Beijing.
The administration had signaled a 54% on one of the country’s biggest trading partners on April 2 before jacking it up to 145% on April 9.
“The small- and medium-sized retailers will have a harder time to mitigate the tariffs…and would be the first to run out of inventory,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy for the National Federation of Retailers.
China accounts for about 54% of all US containerized imports from Asia – from electronics, toys, apparel, furniture and building materials. It generally takes two to three weeks to make the journey from China to the West Coast ports.
“Things that can’t be inventoried, you’ll see (shortages) in a matter of weeks, maybe not even months,” Rita McGrath, strategic management scholar and professor at Columbia Business School, told The Post.
“I also think you’ll start to see things become scarce during the the big summer holidays.”
Wes Allen, who owns Sunlight Sports in Cody, Wyo. said the uncertainty of Trump’s trade policy has made it impossible to plan ahead for new orders. The outdoor sporting goods company sells tents, sleeping bags, sports apparel and equipment that are all made in China.
“The things we are importing directly are costing way more than we thought they would and our vendors are laying off people so they can pay the tariffs,” Allen said.
Trump’s 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all nations except China could stave off the type of empty shelves witnessed after the COVID pandemic, according to Anne Rieke, president of the Intermodal Association of North America (IANA), an organization that represents the container industry.
But it’s a tricky balancing act, since importers don’t want to hold onto excess inventory, and they’re worried consumer sentiment in the US could continue to slide.
“Think about it in your own economy,” McGrath told The Post. “You wouldn’t put money down if you had no idea…what the situation was going to be going forward.
Customs broker Bobby Shoule predicts that ships will be arriving at US ports carrying less merchandise within the next three to four weeks.
Many of those ships will likely be skipping ports in China – called “blank” sailings – because importers have halted shipments or canceled orders due to the steep tariffs on China, according to Shoule, vice president of JW Hampton Jr. & Co., a 160-year old logistics company in Jamaica, Queens.
There already have been 80 blank sailings out of China reported by freight company HLS Group, according to CNBC.
Larry Gross, president of Gross Transportation Consulting, warned of gridlock at the ports as containers pile up because there will be fewer Chinese vessels arriving to take them away.
“We are seeing ships being unloaded now and probably next week that were sent out at full capacity weeks ago,” Gross said. “Those things take up valuable space at these ports.”
This story originally appeared on NYPost
