1 year ago, I said I wouldn’t touch Vodafone shares with a bargepole! Was that wise?

Vodafone (LSE: VOD) shares were climbing fast this time last year, jumping 15% in a matter of weeks. It was the first sign of life from the FTSE 100 telecoms group in years, and I was tempted to take a closer look.

So I did. And after weighing up the numbers, the debt, the dividend outlook and the long-term share price trend, I came to a clear conclusion. I wasn’t buying. 

For me, the risks still outweighed the potential.

I’ve been a Vodafone sceptic for a long time and didn’t see enough in the recovery story to change my mind. I wasn’t drawn in by the then-tempting 10.4% yield, knowing that it wouldn’t survive.

Nor was I convinced the long-promised turnaround was finally under way. I said I wouldn’t touch Vodafone shares with a bargepole. So, did I make the right call?

A lukewarm comeback

A quick glance at the Vodafone share price calms the nerves. Over the past 12 months, the stock is up just 2.8%. Not bad by its own standards, especially given the recent volatility. But it still lags the FTSE 100, which is up 6.2% over the same period.

FTSE 100 rival BT Group delivered a 40% share price surge in the last year, showing what a proper telecoms turnaround can look like. Vodafone simply hasn’t matched that.

It does have its strengths. The trailing yield is still decent at 4.9%, comfortably above the index average of around 3.6%. 

It isn’t that expensive either, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.6.

Mixed signals

The group’s 2024 results, published on 20 May, painted a mixed picture. Total revenue rose 2% to €37.4bn, with organic service revenue up 5.1%. 

There was strong growth in Africa and Turkey, but a 5% decline in Germany due to tougher regulation and fierce competition. Vodafone suffered a €400m operating loss, although it wasn’t helped by a €4.5bn impairment charge.

The board did announce a €2bn share buyback though. That should support the share price in the short term.

CEO Margherita Della Valle insisted Vodafone has “changed”, but I still need to see more proof

Watch and wait

Telecoms remains a difficult sector. It demands heavy investment and offers little room for error. Vodafone’s net debt remains stubbornly high at €33.9bn. The turnaround story is real, but it’s not yet complete.

Analyst sentiment reflects the uncertainty. Of the 15 offering stock ratings, four say Buy, four say Sell and the rest are sitting on the fence. That’s the biggest Sell ratio I’ve seen for a while.

Analysts forecast a median one-year share price target of just over 85p, a modest 10% gain from today’s price. Combined with the yield, that might offer a 15% return. That would be a good year by Vodafone’s standards. We’ll see.

In one respect, the shares we don’t buy are just as important as the ones that were. So it’s worth looking back, from time to time. Hopefully, not with anger.

For now, I still see better places to invest. Others might consider buying Vodafone, but I’m keeping my bargepole handy.