Frontrunners, Contenders, & Potential Winner

Some of Hollywood’s biggest stars will vie to win Best Actor at the Oscars 2026, one year after Adrien Brody was awarded for The Brutalist. I’m excited to once again be in charge of tracking this race throughout awards season for ScreenRant and giving our take on who is the frontrunner, who is rising, and who is falling.

As usual, there is a strong mix of actors with differing careers and awards experience set to be major players in Best Actor. Previous winners like Leonardo DiCaprio and Daniel Day-Lewis have been linked to the category ever since their respective movies were announced. Timothée Chalamet is in a similar boat thanks to his ascension through the industry.

Having some Oscars history is nice, but voters like to spread the nominations around and give recognition to actors for the first time too. That’s where big names like Dwayne Johnson, Michael B. Jordan, and Jeremy Allen White could become factors. The same may be true for Wagner Moura or Channing Tatum.

There’s still a lot of time left before the actual Best Actor nominations are announced on January 22, 2026, but the race is already starting to take shape. This is how I see things at this point, but keep checking back, as I will be updating this as the Oscars season continues to unfold.

The Best Actor Nomination Frontrunners

With only five male performances eligible to be nominated by the Academy for Best Actor, the highly competitive field will include several strong contenders who miss the cut. The response to these performances, the awards they’ve received, and Oscar history help act as a guide. Here is my current Oscars 2026 Best Actor nominations prediction (in alphabetical order):

Dwayne Johnson is poised to receive his first Oscar nomination thanks to The Smashing Machine. The dramatic turn is what many have been waiting for him to do for years. By portraying real-life fighter Mark Kerr in the biopic, Johnson proves he’s got much more to offer Hollywood than headlining action blockbusters with huge budgets but little imagination.

His performance is the standout element in The Smashing Machine and should play with the Academy. He’s one of the industry’s biggest stars, and I have little doubt that he’ll pull out all the necessary stops to campaign hard and secure this nomination. That pursuit, paired with a career-best performance, should make Johnson an Academy Award nominee.

If we want to poke holes in Johnson’s chances, it could come with this career pivot. Some may not be ready to buy him as a dramatic actor and want to wait for him to do it again to give him this honor. The film’s good-but-not-great reception could also ding him potentially.

While The Rock is gunning for his first nomination, Leonardo DiCaprio looks well-positioned to receive his sixth acting nomination. It’s hard to believe that nearly a decade has passed since his last and only Oscar win, for The Revenant​​​​​​. It seems like he’s in a good position to earn his seventh nomination with One Battle After Another.

DiCaprio delivers an incredibly memorable performance as Bob, making the nomination valid based on his work alone. His attachment to one of the strongest Oscars 2026 Best Picture contenders won’t hurt, though, and could be what propels him past any skepticism.

The question is whether this could become another Killers of the Flower Moon scenario for him, where he’s part of a movie with double-digit nominations, but he’s ignored.

The Academy has an opportunity to recognize several of the wonderful One Battle After Another performances. Nominations for Sean Penn, Chase Infiniti, Teyana Taylor, Benicio del Toro, or Regina Hall could leave DiCaprio on the outs if voters want to recognize other films more.

Michael B. Jordan deserves to be in Best Actor and earn his first Oscar nomination for his work in Sinners. Playing the dual roles of Smoke and Stack wasn’t just technologically impressive for Ryan Coogler to pull off, but Jordan delivered two nuanced, emotional, and layered performances at once.

The strength of his work speaks for itself, and Sinners‘ position as a wide Oscar contender should help his cause. He’s arguably got the best shot at a nomination of the entire cast. His case could be solidified if critics groups and other award bodies recognize him throughout the season.

Yet, questions remain over whether he’ll get in. Jordan will need to find time in his busy schedule to campaign for this nomination. Even if he does, it’s possible voters ignore honoring a single individual performer and instead shine a spotlight on the whole cast through the newly introduced Best Casting category, which awards the casting director, not the ensemble cast.

These are the only performances from my predications that can or have been seen by the public at large. This makes Marty Supreme‘s release in December and The Secret Agent‘s arrival in November big moments for Chalamet and Moura to solidify their places as major contenders.

Moura is the lesser-known star in this group, but he’s the only one who has already achieved some level of recognition for his potential Oscar-nominated performance. When The Secret Agent premiered at Cannes, he was the recipient of the Best Actor award. This is not a major precursor for the Oscars, typically, but it’s given Moura an early advantage over other actors.

Chalamet is a more known commodity, but Marty Supreme is a complete unknown. Nobody has seen it, so there’s a chance Josh Safdie’s film doesn’t connect as strongly as expected. But if Chalamet delivers a career-best performance, he could either fly above the film’s mixed reception or be the face of a possible Best Picture contender.

Actors Still In The Mix

Those five performances are far from sure things to get Best Actor nominations. Many other actors have the time and opportunity to enhance their position, which would inevitably push others down here.

The group of actors who are still very much alive in this race include a great range of familiar faces. A few years after earning a Best Supporting Actor nomination for The Power of the Dog, Jesse Plemons is searching for a nomination for Bugonia. Ethan Hawke also looms as a big contender for Blue Moon, and the narrative behind finally making him an Academy Award winner could take him far.

Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Channing Tatum (Roofman), and Will Arnett (Is This Thing On?) are among the group angling for their first Oscar nominations. Tatum could hold an edge after receiving the Tribute Performer Award at TIFF.

Image via Paramount Pictures

Will voters go for some of them, or could they favor more familiar names with Oscar history? Colin Farrell (Ballad of a Small Player), George Clooney (Jay Kelly), Brendan Fraser (Rental Family), Russell Crowe (Nuremberg), Cillian Murphy (Steve), and Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest) are all previous winners. Hugh Jackman (Song Sung Blue) is another former nominee with a strong chance.

Yet, two other major contenders also remain. Daniel Day-Lewis has the most Best Actor wins of all time, and while Anemone hasn’t been met with huge acclaim, his performance and stature in the industry could still lead to a nomination. Then again, since he’s not going into another “retirement” after this, the Academy could hold off to see what he does next.

This brings us to Paul Mescal, the male lead in Hamnet, a Best Picture favorite. He’s already surprised with his nomination in the category for Aftersun a few years ago. But, it’s currently unclear if Focus will campaign him in Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor. It could really go either way, and there’s a sense he might have an easier time winning as a Lead.

The early reactions to Hamnet make Mescal’s performance feel like a lock for an Oscar. It’s just a matter of figuring out what category it will come in. If Focus decides to put him in Best Actor, I find it hard to imagine he wouldn’t be one of the five nominees. We just have to wait on the decision for now.

Predicted Best Actor Winner

Best Actor could really go in several directions by the time the 98th Academy Awards happen on March 15, 2026. There are arguments to be made in favor of Johnson, DiCaprio, Jordan, Chalamet, and Moura. I’m even a bit conflicted on who to pick as I type this.

I can imagine a world where the Academy rewards Johnson for this dramatic turn. I can also see DiCaprio accepting a long-overdue second Academy Award, vaulting him into a different category with the Oscars historically. Jordan may still have the best performance of the three from what I’ve seen.

But I’m going to take a leap of faith and choose Chalamet as the Best Actor Oscar winner this year, for now. He ran a great campaign after his nomination for A Complete Unknown, so much so that his SAG win left me convinced he was going to deliver a surprise upset at the 2025 Oscars and become the youngest Best Actor winner ever.

That didn’t happen, but Marty Supreme is his chance to finally get that recognition. The sports drama looks absolutely thrilling based on the trailer, and Chalamet’s performance will be a big reason why the movie works. A24 clearly has a lot of faith in it with the late December release, which could allow his performance to breathe new life into the race at the right time.

A24 has delivered Best Actor wins in two of the last three years. Chalamet gives them a good chance to go three for four after the Oscars 2026. There’s still so much of this season still to come, though, so whether he’ll still be in this position in a few weeks or months remains to be seen.

8/10

Location

Los Angeles, CA

Dates

March 15, 2026

Website

https://www.oscars.org/