As the 2025 movie year comes to a close, all eyes are on the movies for 2026. It’s too soon to speculate which movies will be award-worthy suspects for the obligatory end-of-year lists, but it’s the perfect time to observe which blockbusters will dominate the box office. Big studios always lay plans in advance, and the calendar is already booked for familiar franchises to return to the big screen.
The studios have some strong contenders for 2026’s box office, and it’s going to get messy. The competition is so fierce that there’s a good chance a few films could end up shifting release dates, lest they lose out on bigger takes. Here’s a look at the big films to expect, which ones will make bank, and where their greatest competition lies.
‘The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’ vs. ‘Hoppers’
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie could be the biggest animated film of 2026. Universal is hoping for a repeat of 2023’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which became the highest-grossing animated film of that year with $1.3 billion (via Deadline). Video game films have been doing incredibly well over the past few years, with audiences returning for franchises like Sonic the Hedgehog and Five Nights at Freddy’s. For an animated film geared at families with the proven success of a notable video game icon, expect The Super Mario Galaxy Movie to be a top-performing film when it hits theaters on April 3rd, 2026.
Before the next Super Mario movie’s release, Disney will have a month to see if it can draw in audiences with an original film. Hoppers is a Pixar animated movie about humans transferring their minds into robot animals to better communicate with wildlife. Although not being a sequel and boasting a notable voice cast (Jon Hamm, Meryl Streep, Dave Franco, Kathy Najimy), the lack of marquee value could work against another Pixar film attempting to break away from the familiar. Debuting on March 6th, 2026, without much competition, it will be interesting to see how much box office Hoppers can snatch before Mario grips April with his rounded, gloved hands.
Spielberg’s ‘Disclosure Day’ vs. ‘Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu’
It’s been many years since Disney released a new Star Wars film in theaters, reserving the franchise for TV shows on Disney+. The TV fandom built up for The Mandalorian may pay off for the show’s first theatrical film. Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu will continue the adventures of the bounty hunter and his pint-sized friend with their theatrical debut set for May 22nd, 2026. The audience might gravitate toward theaters for another Star Wars film if it’s based on the most culturally significant characters Disney has promoted over the past six years.
But there’s another sci-fi film that could take away from Star Wars’ box office, and, while it’s not a dormant franchise, it’s a director who hasn’t graced the genre in some time. Stephen Spielberg’s Disclosure Day from Universal Pictures will center on the familiar topic of aliens making contact with Earth. Debuting in theaters on June 12th, 2026, an original sci-fi film from an acclaimed director could be enough to elicit excitement for a box office winner. Despite premiering two weeks after Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu, they’re close enough that one could affect the other.
‘Supergirl’ vs. ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’
Riding high on the success of Superman, Warner Bros. is ready to take off next summer with Supergirl. The more rebellious DC Comics superhero already had an enthusiastic trailer debut, boasting a messy Milly Alcock as Kara “Supergirl” Zor-El and the ideal casting of Jason Momoa as the galactic bounty hunter Lobo. James Gunn won’t be directing this entry, with Craig Gillespie (I, Tonya, Cruella) helming this continuation of the DCU. Audiences and critics responded resoundingly well to Gunn’s Superman, so the odds are looking good for Supergirl’s June 26, 2026, theatrical premiere.
Marvel has another superhero film for the summer, but it’s not generating much hype at the moment. Spider-Man: Brand New Day will continue the adventures of Peter Parker, played again by Tom Holland and set within the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Disney is playing it safe with this entry by not debuting Spider-Man’s fourth MCU film too close to the competition, though close enough that there might be an impact. Brand New Day will premiere on July 31st, 2026, a whole month after Supergirl. We’re essentially seeing a repeat of 2025, with Marvel’s Fantastic Four: First Steps debuting a few weeks after Superman. However, Spider-Man has always drawn a strong box office, as with 2021’s No Way Home, which grossed $1.9 billion after its debut in December. If any superhero in Marvel’s regular roster can reinvigorate the MCU’s box office appeal, it’s the web-slinger of New York City.
‘Toy Story 5’ vs. Minions
If Pixar’s Hoppers doesn’t jump to box office success, Disney has a more sure thing for this summer. Toy Story 5 will premiere on June 19th, 2026, and it’s a franchise that has had legs for 30 years. The further adventures of the toys Woody and Buzz Lightyear are a safe bet, as 2019’s Toy Story 4 made over one billion at its worldwide box office. Lest one think audiences will not return for another Toy Story film, Pixar proved that its sequels have summer success, as with 2024’s Inside Out 2, which made $1.6 billion worldwide (via Forbes).
The only animated film franchise that could take down such an unbeatable blockbuster is Universal’s Despicable Me saga. Universal is once more aiming to take over the July 4th weekend with Minions 3, releasing July 1st. As the seventh Despicable Me film, the babbling yellow cohorts of the villainous Gru will no doubt dominate another July. The film will likely take plenty of business from Toy Story 5, but whether it can keep pace in the weeks that follow remains to be seen. It’s unlikely that Universal will back down from the most coveted spot of the summer, given how Despicable Me 4 performed in July 2024, netting close to a billion at the worldwide box office.
‘Avengers: Doomsday’ vs. ‘Dune: Part 3’
The biggest showdown of 2026 will be between a sci-fi and a superhero franchise. Disney has already started teasing the upcoming Avengers film, despite it being a whole year away. Avengers: Doomsday has a release date set for December 18th, 2026, but this could be a risky endeavor for Disney. Avengers films were box office juggernauts in the 2010s, but the Marvel Cinematic Universe hasn’t been drawing the same level of success in the 2020s. There’s also never been an Avengers film to debut at the end of the year, as summer has been the safest ground for such movies.
There is one film big enough to make Disney’s largest MCU crossover reconsider a Christmas debut. Warner Bros. is aiming to release Denis Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Three on the same date as Avengers: Doomsday. While the previous two movies in the sci-fi epic premiered in October and March, both performed well at the box office, with Dune: Part Two nearly doubling the first gross. 2026 could be the year that Dune is ready to swoop in and overtake the holiday box office with the momentum it has been gaining over the past five years from audiences, critics, and awards.
It remains to be seen which of these two towering December blockbusters will move their release dates first. We’ll have to wait and see how the year plays out to determine which, but there’s little doubt that neither of them will pull out of December. Should Avengers: Doomsday and Dune: Part Three premiere on the same date, it would be a disaster for both films, splitting box-office earnings and theater showtimes. This is the biggest game of chicken for 2026 movies, and you’ll likely hear more about this battle as the year progresses. The trailer for Avengers: Doomsday ended with a countdown to the film’s theater release, but there’s an even shorter countdown to see whether an Avengers movie will blink, as there’s far more on the line than the multiverse.
This story originally appeared on Movieweb
