Will Hollywood go ‘resistance’ at the Oscars?

They can’t help themselves.

When actors see a microphone, they blurt out the industry’s cause du jour. It’s instinctive, like knowing your “good” side when the paparazzi appear.

Free Palestine!

Bleep Trump!

ICE out!

No one’s illegal on stolen land!

Oscar Sunday offers the biggest, shiniest microphone Hollywood has to hand over. And, in the past, the stars have exploited that stage to vent their political gripes.

So the questions becomes: Can the assembled stars afford to insult half the country? And even if not, can they depart from their own “resistance” script?

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Hollywood’s always skewed left, but awards shows grew overtly political during the Iraq War — before taking on an even more activist tone during Donald Trump’s ascendency. 

Think director Spike Lee of “BlacKkKlansman” asking the Oscars audience, along with millions at home, to consider the political moment in 2019: “The 2020 presidential election is around the corner. Let’s all mobilize. Let’s all be on the right side of history. Make the moral choice between love versus hate.”

Preachy, no?

Or recall the trio of Oscar hosts, Amy Schumer, Wanda Sykes and Regina Hall, chanting, “Gay, gay gay” over a misinterpretation of Florida school rules in 2022.

The subsequent ratings drop alarmed the entertainment industry. The 2017 gala attracted 32.9 million viewers. By 2020, that number had plunged to 23.6 million.

The most recent “high,” after the pandemic lockdowns? A mere 19.7 million viewers last year. 

This year’s show could see a further ratings slump. True, the current Best Picture race features populist fare like “Sinners” and “F1,” but many unfamiliar titles crowd the list.

Given poor ratings, the show’s political tide has receded in recent years. The galas focused more on gratitude than sloganeering. 

And the audience would like to thank … the blowhards, for some restraint.

The Oscars even ditched four-time host Jimmy Kimmel, one of the most politically-charged comedians on the scene, for the affable Conan O’Brien. (The ex-late night host is back this year for an encore.)

The stars remain as politically self-righteous as ever, but some are forgoing progressive protests. 

In recent weeks, Kevin James, Michelle Yeoh, Neil Patrick Harris and Ethan Hawke all demurred when pressed by reporters to weigh in on the latest news.

Hawke, a Best Actor nominee for “Blue Moon,” hasn’t shied away from politics in the past. What changed?

Well, those ratings numbers are startling, especially since the Oscars telecast is the premiere advertisement for moviegoing.

Plus, Hollywood is contracting. The threat of AI scares many studio executives, as do the streaming wars and the competition from YouTube and TikTok creators.

And Paramount’s attempt to buy Warner Bros., right after installing Bari Weiss to clean house at CBS News, suggests that there could be less politics and more pink slips at the studio.

Oscar winner Jamie Lee Curtis put it bluntly in a recent Hollywood Reporter chat: “It is a desperate time. There is very little work available.”

All of the above might not matter if a winner breaks the political ice (or “ICE”) early in the evening.

“Sinners,” a bravura mashup of social commentary and vampire chaos, could spark some winners to explore race relations in the Trump era. The film has 16 nominations, after all, the most in Oscar history. It won’t go 0-16. 

The recent BAFTA outcry over the “N-word,” shouted by a man with Tourette’s syndrome while two black actors stood on stage, may come up.

The night’s prohibitive favorite, “One Battle After Another,” could also inspire an immigration-themed speech or three. Director Paul Thomas Anderson’s film offers a sympathetic look at revolutionaries battling U.S. forces to free illegal immigrants.

The lectures practically write themselves (alas).

The one man guaranteed to go political isn’t even a movie star, per se. Kimmel is set to be one of the night’s presenters, and he’ll get a standing ovation from the Tinsel Town types before uttering a word.

From that point on, will the 98th Oscars gala resemble an MS NOW broadcast more than a night honoring Hollywood’s brightest?

Time and the ratings will tell.

Christian Toto oversees Hollywood in Toto, the Right Take on Entertainment, and hosts The Hollywood in Toto Podcast.