Eric Swalwell’s implosion and the governor’s race

If you thought political cancellations could move fast, Congressman Eric Swalwell just set a new standard.

If you tuned out California politics for one Friday afternoon, you missed the destruction of a gubernatorial campaign.

In a matter of hours Swalwell went from one of the Democrats in the race for governor to a politically toxic candidate fighting for survival.

That is how fast this happened.

The collapse began when the San Francisco Chronicle reported allegations from a former staffer who said she had sexual encounters with Swalwell while he was her boss and alleged he twice sexually assaulted her when she was too intoxicated to consent. Swalwell flatly denied the allegations. Since then, several other former staffers have come forward with allegations.

Politically, the damage was immediate.

His two campaign co-chairs, Democratic Reps. Jimmy Gomez and Adam Gray, stepped away and called on him to leave the race. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries called on Swalwell to drop out and demanded a swift House investigation. Nancy Pelosi said the matter should be handled outside a gubernatorial campaign. US Sen. Adam Schiff pulled his support. US Sen. Ruben Gallego did the same. Dozens of other Democratic politicians followed suit. The California Teachers Association dropped its endorsement. SEIU California suspended campaign activity on his behalf.

That is not just bad press. That is a political collapse.

Other Democrats piled on. Katie Porter, Tom Steyer, Tony Thurmond, Betty Yee, and Matt Mahan all called on Swalwell to get out. Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco did the same. 

By day’s end, this was no longer a story about damage control. 

It was a public stampede away from a candidate.

Swalwell refused to quit. In a video statement, he called the allegations “flat false” and vowed to “fight them with everything that I have.” 

He also apologized to his wife for unspecified “mistakes” in his past and said he would spend the weekend with family and friends before providing an update “soon.” His lawyer later said he intended to stay in the race.

Maybe. But by the time you read this, Swalwell may be gone formally. And if he is not, he is still cooked. 

Campaigns do not survive this kind of institutional abandonment, especially in a Democratic contest where support from elected officials, organized labor, and donor networks is oxygen.

The bigger story now is what Swalwell’s implosion does to the governor’s race.

Until this political earthquake, he had been one of the top-tier candidates, running in the mix with Porter and Steyer while Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco fought for conservative support. 

Now Swalwell’s voters are up for grabs. 

In California’s top-two system, two Democrats can emerge from the June election if Republican votes are split badly enough. With Swalwell gone or crippled, Democrats now have even more incentive to sort themselves around one or two contenders.

This has happened before. In 2016, then-Attorney General Kamala Harris and Congresswoman Loretta Sanchez, both Democrats, emerged from California’s June top-two election for the U.S. Senate, shutting Republicans out of the general election that Harris went on to win.

That matters far beyond the governor’s race.

A Republican standard-bearer in a statewide general election helps drive turnout, sharpen party contrast, and boost down-ticket candidates for Congress, the Legislature, and local office. It can also affect the political environment around statewide ballot measures.

But Republicans are not the only ones who understand that math.

Big public employee unions would also prefer a clean Democrat-versus-Republican general election in deep-blue California. They know how to game the system. In 2024, Adam Schiff spent millions boosting Republican Steve Garvey in the U.S. Senate race because he wanted the matchup he preferred.

The irony here is that the same kind of maneuver could happen again. If labor or allied Democratic interests decide Tom Steyer is the safer bet, they could try to boost a Republican just enough to help knock Porter out of the top two. Or vice versa.

That is why Swalwell’s collapse matters far beyond Eric Swalwell.

His campaign did not just implode. It changed the race. 

Some will move to Porter. Some will move to Steyer. Some will trickle to the other Democrats struggling to be relevant. Some may drift into the undecided column. But they are not disappearing.

The most immediate beneficiaries are Porter and Steyer, both polling in the low double digits and within striking distance of a top-two finish. Swalwell’s collapse gives them a chance to consolidate Democratic voters looking for a viable alternative.

And that creates a problem for Republicans.

If the GOP does not consolidate behind one candidate, the chances of Republicans being shut out of the general election become real. 

Democrats are now under pressure to consolidate. Republicans are under pressure to do the same. And everyone with money, institutional muscle, and strategic patience is suddenly looking at a very different map.

One candidate’s fall just changed the odds for everybody.

Jon Fleischman is a longtime California political strategist. His writing can be found on his Substack at http://www.SoDoesItMatter.com.

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