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Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX), better known as SpaceX, has been getting a lot of attention over the summer. This follows the giant IPO. Yet the SpaceX share price has actually fallen almost 50% since the middle of June. It’s now easily below the initial listing price. Given the wide range of potential scenarios for the stock from here, I was curious to see what ChatGPT thought!
Striking an upbeat tone
The base case prediction ChatGPT gave me was $155, with it caveating higher and lower prices for best-case and worst-case alternatives. To give more perspective, the stock currently trades at $115, with the IPO price of $135. That implies a potential return of 35%. So clearly there’s something behind it that makes it seem quite a bold call.
In terms of reasoning, the biggest positive it spoke about was Starlink, and the belief that it will continue to grow and become the economic engine of the business. Given that this area has strong, recurring, high-margin operations, this could give investors greater confidence that SpaceX can be financially stable.
ChatGPT added that it believes the market continues to value SpaceX primarily as a launch company. But my AI buddy believes other elements of SpaceX deserve more recognition. Should this come over the next few months, the stock could rally as the business is understood better.
Adding in my view
I accept the latter point, and agree that elements of the company, such as the launch services, can act to diversify the business. But I don’t know if this will be factored in for the coming months. It could take years before there are concrete signs that are enough to satisfy investors.
One factor the chatbot didn’t choose to focus on is that the inaugural earnings report is scheduled for early August. I think this will be key to influencing the stock price for the coming months into the autumn. It’ll be the first proper test for the business to show investors recent momentum, and more detail on the immediate plans for the rest of the year.
But without knowing what will be said on the earnings call, I’m not as optimistic as ChatGPT. One concern I have is around the valuation. Even after the correction, the company is still valued at roughly $1.5trn. When I used some valuation metrics, such as price-to-sales, SpaceX has a ratio substantially higher than Nvidia, Microsoft or Amazon. That still doesn’t quite sit right with me.
There’s also execution risk. What I mean by this is a lot of investors are expecting big things to happen. Say Starlink has some bumps in the road or the Starship division has some commercial issues. It could spook investors even more and certainly weigh on the stock price.
Overall, although I won’t pin an exact year-end price on the stock, I struggle to see it above the IPO price of $135. With that in mind, I won’t be buying the stock and think there are better opportunities (with lower risk) elsewhere.
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Jon Smith does not hold any positions in the companies
This story originally appeared on Motley Fool
