One of the most exciting stock market stories of 2026 for many investors has been the listing of Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX). For years, private investors could only get exposure to the fast-growing business by buying into a pooled investment vehicle that held a stake, like Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust. As of the past several months, though, SpaceX stock has been publicly traded, meaning small private investors have been able to buy SpaceX stock directly.
So, how lucrative would that have been so far?
Up, down, up again…
After the company listed on the NASDAQ market, the share price jumped. It then fell back sharply — but has since recovered a fair bit of ground.
To put that into numbers, the SpaceX stock price is down by 12% since it listed.
So someone who invested £3,000 then would currently be sitting on a paper loss of around £360.
But for someone who decided to ‘buy the dip’ and take advantage of a lower SpaceX stock price a month ago, the results so far have been really good.
A share price rebound has seen the stock move up 21% over the past month. That means that £3,000 invested then would already have a paper value of £3,630.
That is a very strong performance in a matter of just a few weeks!
Drawing the right lessons
In that example, I am ignoring any exchange rate fluctuations.
They are always a risk when investing in a share denominated in a foreign currency, though they can sometimes work for you not against you, depending on which way sterling moves in the relevant timeframe.
But, aside from that, it is also important to draw the right conclusions from this SpaceX example.
The company does not pay dividends, so for now at least an investor’s only hope of return would be capital gains.
Taking the long-term approach to investing
In the example above, I presume the investor still owns the shares. That is why I referred to a paper loss or gain.
As a long-term investor, I typically do not buy a share expecting to own it for only one month.
Then again, if a share soars by over a fifth in one month as SpaceX has done, it can be reassuring to take some money off the table and convert a paper gain into a cash one. I understand that.
Still, I do not look at SpaceX and ask whether its stock price could jump again, offering me a tidy gain if I buy and sell in a matter of weeks. Instead, I want to consider whether the current price potentially offers me value from a long-term perspective.
I see potential, but also risks
So, am I ready to buy SpaceX stock at its current with a view to holding it for the long term?
I like the company’s strong growth prospects, its large satellite wifi customer base, and its deep expertise and proprietary technology when it comes to rockets.
But it is heavily loss-making, burning through cash fast, has large capital expenditure plans, and faces growing competition in its key businesses.
I do not think those risks are properly priced into the current valuation, so I will not be investing for now.
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Christopher Ruane does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.
This story originally appeared on Motley Fool
