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The FTSE 100 is running neck and neck with the S&P 500 as far as the returns percentage is concerned. That may surprise investors who’ve grown used to Wall Street leaving London trailing in its dust.
The US has enjoyed an enormous advantage thanks to its collection of giant technology companies. Yet investing is cyclical. Now there are signs that old-school UK banks, insurers, miners and pharmaceutical companies are getting some love.
Stock market racing demons
The FTSE 100 has one advantage over the S&P 500 – it pays more income. The typical dividend yield is around 3.3%, compared with 1.1% for the S&P 500.
The UK blue-chip index has been delivering growth too. It climbed 17.7% over the last 12 months to 10,824. With dividends included, the total return is around 21%.
The S&P 500 grew 20.2%. Including dividends the total return is 21.2%. This race could hardly be closer. I’m impatient to know how it turns out and decided to ask ChatGPT.
It’s not a crystal ball, but a chatbot. Which means it doesn’t really know, but it’s fun to ask. Its view? “Yes. I think the FTSE 100 could beat the S&P 500 over the next year, although I wouldn’t call it the more likely outcome with any confidence.”
Nice piece of fence sitting, that. It then highlighted the AI bubble threat. “If investors suddenly decide they’ve paid too much for the technology giants, the S&P 500 could take a nasty hit. The FTSE 100 might provide some ballast.“
A tale of two big cities
Don’t celebrate too soon, FTSE 100 fans. The bot said a US correction or crash would damage investor confidence everywhere. “Investors fleeing risk tend to sell everything first and ask questions later.”
Higher interest rates are another threat as the Iran war drives up energy prices. That would hit US growth stocks “particularly hard by reducing the value investors place on their future profits,” ChatGPT said.
It then cautioned: “Higher rates could also hurt FTSE 100 dividend shares. Income seekers could get better returns from cash and bonds without risking their capital.”
But overall ChatGPT is upbeat about the FTSE 100 concluding: “It’s been the unfashionable market for a long time. Sometimes that’s precisely when things get interesting.”
Glencore shares are booming
In my view, things are already interesting. I hold FTSE 100-listed Glencore (LSE: GLEN) and it’s been an extraordinary performer.
The shares have risen 102% over the last year. Yet it wasn’t always this way. Last year, Glencore’s earnings were hit by weaker energy and coal prices, with 2025 adjusted EBITDA falling 6% to $13.5bn.
Copper prices have surged on the green transition and Glencore is a major producer. In the first half of 2026, adjusted EBITDA rocketed 86% to $10.1bn. It’s also returning plenty of cash. Glencore has announced around $3.5bn of shareholder returns for 2026, including dividends and a $500m share buyback.
Commodity prices are also cyclical and can fall as quickly as they rise. A global recession would hurt demand, while mining remains a volatile business. Even so, Glencore’s copper ambitions and improving profits make the shares worth considering today. US tech still dominates the headlines, but plenty of FTSE 100 stocks excite me too.
Should you invest £5,000 in Glencore Plc right now?
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Harvey Jones owns shares in Glencore.
This story originally appeared on Motley Fool
