Keybanc has historically had an Apple stock price target below reality, and its latest commentary about a lack of a non-Pro iPhone debut on Wednesday ignores a few key factors.
When Apple launches its new iPhones on September 9, 2026, it’s expected to make two key changes. As well as the predicted announcement of a foldable iPhone Ultra, Apple is not believed to be launching its usual base iPhone models until spring 2027.
According to KeyBanc, these two factors present a potentially serious problem because it may lead investors to focus on the short term. That means them seeing that the models being launched are more expensive than before, and there’s no lower-end iPhone to capture that market.
Specifically, the investment firm predicts that across fiscal Q4 2026 and Q1 2027, Apple will build 80 million iPhones. That’s down 11 million year over year, which KeyBanc attributes to the lack of an iPhone 18 base model.
Nonetheless, KeyBanc has retained its $250 price target. That’s despite AAPL trading at $329.97 at time of writing.
So KeyBanc is arguing that the market is greatly overrating Apple. But then it has long predicted that Apple’s success is unsustainable, despite continuing to be wrong about it for years.
So again, the reasoning in the research note is questionable. What’s not that questionable, is that the firm is predicting price rises that are in line with most expectations. Specifically, KeyBanc predicts:
- iPhone 18 Pro up $150 to $1,249
- iPhone 18 Pro Max up $200 to $1,399
- iPhone Ultra starting at $2,199
With these prices, the firm expects that there will be more than the usual temporary drop in share price that Apple sees after any launch. KeyBanc’s researchers think this launch could be the catalyst for a longer-term decline as investors turn away from Apple.
However, it also suggests that Apple may not raise all iPhone prices at once. It could instead phase them in, either on only certain configurations, or by increasing them all in stages.
Apple’s split launch makes sense
That said, there will be an iPhone 18 launch in the spring. Plus the trend is for the Pro models to sell dramatically better than the base ones for the first few months.
In that crucial holiday quarter after the launch, the Pro models typically account for 80%+ of all iPhone sales. After that, the trend tends to reverse and see the lower-cost models gain share.
That cross-over of Pro demand to not-pro generally happens in February.
And then there’s the global RAM and SSD crunch. Those are putting pressure on Apple, and focusing now on Pro models, and splitting manufacturing across more time makes sense from a financial perspective, as it pertains to flash and NAND supply and demand issues.
KeyBanc also doesn’t factor in the possibility of an iPhone 18e launching alongside the iPhone 18 in spring 2027.
The KeyBanc note to investors was first spotted by MacRumors.
This story originally appeared on Appleinsider
