Providing NHS-style personal care free to everyone aged 65 and over could cost £55billion a year by 2050, according to new analysis from health and lifestyle intelligence business a.genius. The company’s founder and chief executive Martin Werth, a qualified actuary who helped develop the first long-term care insurance products launched in Britain, estimates that introducing free personal care for the over-65s would cost £27.5billion annually at today’s prices.
That is £12.5billion more than the approximately £15billion currently spent publicly on adult social care. By 2050, a.genius projects that the total annual cost could reach £55billion – £40billion above current spending. Its modelling attributes £22.5billion of that increase to Britain’s ageing population and £17.5billion to the cost of introducing free personal care. The proposed NHS-style system would remove the financial means test for personal care. However, it would not cover care-home accommodation, food, energy or other ordinary living expenses.
Mr Werth, who has more than 40 years’ experience in the insurance industry, said: “Funding Social Care reform is essential. But a new model without a bold and effective prevention strategy could prove unaffordable.” Britain’s rapidly ageing population is expected to place increasing pressure on the care system. Office for National Statistics projections suggest that the number of people aged 75 and over will increase by 50 per cent, from 6.7 million in 2025 to 10.1 million in 2050.
The number aged 85 and over, the age group in which care needs are the highest is projected to double over the same period. Meanwhile, the number of years Britons can expect to live in good health has fallen to its lowest level since the ONS series began. Between 2022 and 2024, healthy life expectancy was 60.7 years for men and 60.9 years for women.
Overall life expectancy was considerably higher, at 79.1 years for men and 83 years for women. This means women can expect to spend around 22.1 years not in good health, compared with 18.4 years for men.
Mr Werth added: “We cannot stop the population ageing. But we can change how people age and reduce the number of years spent in poor health, frailty and dependence.” He is calling for social care reform to be accompanied by a national health prevention programme involving employers, insurers and retailers, as well as the NHS and government. The proposed programme would address five connected areas: physical health, cognitive health, nutrition, sleep and social connection.
A.genius works with employers, insurers and individuals to measure these lifestyle factors, encourage achievable improvements and monitor whether long-term health risks are falling.
This story originally appeared on Express.co.uk
