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Shares in the Space Exploration Technologies Corporation, better known as SpaceX (LSE: SPCX), are beginning to feel like a bet on the future of humanity.
As well as circling the planet with satellites and plotting human life on Mars, founder Elon Musk is taking a huge gamble on artificial intelligence, which some claim could wipe out humanity. Even Musk isn’t totally relaxed about its powers.
AI is dynamite. When Alfred Nobel invented nitro-glycerine in 1866, he hoped to revolutionise mining and huge infrastructure projects such as roads, tunnels and canals. Humans quickly found other uses for his tech. Heaven knows what we’ll do with AI. It might even blow up SpaceX.
Rocket-fuelled growth
SpaceX has a thriving rocket launch and satellite business. It builds rockets and spacecraft, launches them and operates Starlink, its satellite internet network. But it’s also making a massive and expensive bet on AI.
In the second quarter, SpaceX revenues surged 92% to $7.8bn. Overall, it’s losing money, with a net loss of $541m in Q2, albeit down from $1.01bn a year earlier.
SpaceX is also becoming an AI business through its xAI segment. AI revenue hit $2.56bn, up 247% from $737m a year earlier. The problem is what it’s costing. In the first half of 2026, AI investment absorbed $23.55bn of SpaceX’s $28.48bn capital spending. That’s a mind-boggling amount of money.
Big money, big risk
No tech billionaire/trillionaire worth their salt is going to ignore AI, but the massive spending it entails is understandably spreading fear across markets today. As well as gambling with humanity, investors are making a massive financial bet on future growth. If AI spending fails to deliver the hoped-for returns, SpaceX stock will get hammered. That’s true across the US tech sector.
Yet brokers remain optimistic. Of the 44 who’ve issued stock ratings in the last three months, 30 called SpaceX a Strong Buy, and another three said Buy. The consensus one-year share price target is $222, against $150 today. That would see the shares climb a mighty 48% from today. Which would be pretty hair-raising if true, and would require the rest of the market be doing pretty well too. Fingers crossed.
That’s exciting. It might happen. It might not. Nobody knows. There’s only one certainty. SpaceX will be an incredibly bumpy ride. Anybody approaching this stock needs to be okay with that, and resist betting the farm. I think it’s incredibly exciting and worth considering, but only for the right investor.
I’ll stick with Scottish Mortgage
Looking at my portfolio, I already have plenty of exposure to US technology. Plus a decent stake in SpaceX through the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust. SpaceX accounted for 21% of its total assets at the latest disclosed valuation in June. That’ll do me.
So I’ll sit tight and hope for the best. But there are other growth opportunities that I’ve got my eye on. They’re on the FTSE 100 and with luck, won’t entail the potential end of humanity. They might make investors richer though…
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Harvey Jones owns shares in Scottish Mortgage and SpaceX.
This story originally appeared on Motley Fool
