Admiral just reduced its dividend shares payout by 39%. Why I’m not rushing to sell

A 39% payout reduction is the last thing an investor wants to see from their dividend shares. But that’s exactly what Admiral (LSE:ADM) reported in its recent half-year results: an interim payment of 70.5p per share, down from 115p a year earlier.

For someone whose entire portfolio is aimed at earning passive income, that’s no small hit.

So, my first thought was: has something changed so significantly that it justifies selling? The answer is more complex than a simple yes or no.

There are several reasons why a company might slash its dividends, and understanding the difference is critical to making good investment decisions.

So let’s take a closer look.

The facts behind the decision

Firstly, the ‘39% reduction’ isn’t as bad as it looks. Admiral’s 2025 interim payment included a special dividend, so the normal dividend was actually only reduced by 18%. That only makes up about 65% of post-tax profits, so the company could still decide to return additional capital through a special dividend or a share buyback.

Alongside this year’s interim dividend, it also announced a £45m buyback. Sure, it’s not cash but it’s still in essence rewarding shareholders beyond that of just the dividend alone.

So overall, this year’s distributions from H1 earnings come to £258.8m – still a bit lower than last year but by only 26% – not 39%.

Obviously, a buyback isn’t quite as attractive as income but it still equates to increased value. When shares are bought and cancelled, each remaining share represents a slightly larger stake in the business. A share price increase isn’t always guaranteed – it depends partly on what Admiral pays for those shares – but it’s a common outcome.

So, is there enough strength in the business to make the lower payout easier to accept?

Reasons to stay patient

There are several signs that I find encouraging. For example, the number of risks Admiral insured rose 5% to 12.03m in the six months to 30 June. Plus, its solvency ratio, measured after the dividend and buyback, remains sufficient at 190%.

In plain English, it still has more than enough capital backing its insurance obligations, with putting further dividends at risk.

Striking a balance between shareholder returns and business interests is critical. Insurance profits are volatile, so paying out too much during a strong period might keep shareholders happy, but increases future risk.

Still, there were some problematic figures in the results that deserve attention. Both UK motor profit and pre-tax profit from continuing operations fell 18% as lower earned premiums and higher reinsurance charges weighed on results.

If that situation doesn’t improve, there’s a risk things could get worse.

My verdict

All things considered, I don’t think the 39% dividend drop is quite as shocking as it seems.

For now, I see the reduction as a sensible response to weaker earnings, rather than a reason to sell on its own. So I’m not rushing for the exit, and Admiral remains a hold for me.

In fact, I think the current lower price may even be worth considering for value investors – although I’d wait a bit to see how things develop.

Most critically, keep a close eye on whether motor profits recover and whether the group can keep growing without weakening its capital position. If earnings keep slipping, my view could change.

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Mark Hartley owns shares in Admiral Group.