Aftear a brief tour around the nation, the Octagon returns to UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada, this Saturday (May 20, 2023) for a five-round women’s Strawweight main event rematch between Mackenzie Dern and Angela Hill. UFC Vegas 73 will also see Emily Ducote face Lupita Godinez in a late-notice Catchweight clash and Andre Fialho lock horns with Joaquin Buckley in a potentially explosive Welterweight battle.
We’ve got three more UFC Vegas 73 “Prelims” undercard bouts to break down first, though (check out first batch here). Let’s get to it …
115 lbs.: Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Vanessa Demopoulos
Karolina Kowalkiewicz’s (14-7) torrid 5-2 UFC start — marred only by losses to Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Claudia Gadelha — gave way to five consecutive losses over the span of three years. She ultimately found her footing in 2022, defeating Felice Herrig and Silvana Gomez Juarez in back-to-back bouts.
She’ll enjoy one inch of height and 4.5 inches of reach on “Lil’ Monster.”
Vanessa Demopoulos (9-4) went from starting her professional career 5-1 to losing three of her next four, including losses to Cory McKenna on Contender Series and J.J. Aldrich in the Octagon. She’s since quietly put together a three-fight win streak, most recently defeating Maria Oliveira in Nov. 2022.
Four of her five professional finishes have come by submission.
Credit where it’s due: Demopoulos has clearly made the effort to address some of her longstanding issues, most notably her weak wrestling. That said, I’m not convinced she can handle a veteran as well-rounded as Kowalkiewicz. Kowalkiewicz has the takedown defense to keep things in her wheelhouse, where she’s still sharp enough to hold her own against big hitters like Juarez. The two takedowns she hit on Juarez suggest that she can also take things to the mat of her own volition if needed.
This is another situation where Demopoulos lacks the tools to impose her jiu-jitsu or execute a Plan B when neither the takedowns nor the guard pulls pay dividends. In the end, Kowalkiewicz sprawls-and-brawls to a comfortable decision.
Prediction: Kowalkiewicz via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Orion Cosce vs. Gilbert Urbina
An upset finish of Matt Dixon on Contender Series earned Orion Cosce (8-1) a spot in the Octagon, where he fell victim to a Philip Rowe comeback in his debut. Assorted issues kept him out of action for the next year, after which he claimed his first UFC victory by out-grappling City Kickboxing’s Mike Mathetha.
He’s knocked out six professional foes and submitted one other.
Gilbert Urbina (6-3) — the third Urbina to try his hand on Contender Series — dispatched late replacement, Micheal Gillmore, in the house before suffering a stoppage loss to Tresean Gore. An injury to Gore sent Urbina to the finals, where teammate Bryan Battle choked him out to win the season.
“The RGV Bad Boy” fights for the first time in nearly 21 months.
This comes down to whether Cosce can consistently get inside and push enough of a pace to make up for his limited striking. Urbina is taller, rangier and a seemingly more natural kickboxer; therefore, if Cosce once again struggles to consistently take the fight where he wants it, it’s easy to imagine Urbina just overwhelming him with volume the way Rowe did.
At the same time, Urbina relies heavily on initiating the grappling himself, which can work against his physical gifts and plays right into Cosce’s hands. Urbina should be much easier to hunt down than the unconventional Mathetha, so as long as Cosce’s aggression and gas tank holds up, expect him to smother Urbina to a decision win.
Prediction: Cosce via unanimous decision
265 lbs.: Ilir Latifi vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
Ilir Latifi (17-8) went 7-5 as a UFC Light Heavyweight before moving up to 265 in 2020. He dropped a decision to Derrick Lewis in his divisional debut, but went on to win decisions over Tanner Boser and Aleksei Oleinik in his only two fights since Feb. 2020.
“The Sledgehammer” gives up four inches of height and seven inches of reach to Nascimento.
Rodrigo Nascimento (9-1) followed his Contender Series submission of Michal Martinek by choking out Don’Tale Mayes in his UFC debut. A knockout loss to Chris Daukaus and overturned technical knockout victory over Alan Baudot followed, leaving him officially winless for over two years before he edged out Tanner Boser in Sept. 2022.
His professional finishes are split 6:2 between submissions and knockouts.
This is going to be unwatchable. At this stage of his career, Latifi is among the most shameless lay-and-prayers in modern UFC history … and Nascimento isn’t much better. That said, it does seem like Nascimento’s fight to lose. “Ze Colmeia” is a decade younger than Latifi and a natural Heavyweight, giving him a solid shot of controlling what are sure to be many clinch situations. He’s also got the edge on the feet — Latifi’s vaunted power has been absent for the last seven years, while Nascimento showed that he can slug it out if necessary in that comeback against Baudot.
In a battle of grinders, I’ll take the bigger, younger, marginally more well-rounded guy. In short, Nascimento wins an uninspiring grind with clinch control, slightly better strikes, and maybe a smidge of top control if Latifi gets tired enough to end up on his back.
Prediction: Nascimento via unanimous decision
UFC Vegas 73 is another atrocious “Sin City” card on the surface, but at least the promotion is not trying to hawk it as a pay-per-view (PPV). See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Current Prediction Record for 2023: 68-40-1
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 73 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN+) at 7 p.m. ET.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 73: “Dern vs. Hill 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
This story originally appeared on MMA Mania
