X-Factor! Check out some UFC Vegas 80 main card predictions | Dawson vs. Green

This weekend (Sat., Oct. 8, 2023), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) remains inside the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Vegas 80. I have to say, this is one of the stranger main events in recent memory. I like Bobby Green, and Grant Dawson is on a nice little run up the Lightweight ladder, but it’s an odd match up given where both men are at. Even so, the potential for 25 minutes of excellent Lightweight action remains strong, so it could always be worse. Fortunately, the rest of the card is also built up around knockout artists, so a nasty stoppage or two feels like a distinct possibility.

Let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the co-main event:

Welterweight: Joaquin Buckley vs. Alex Morono

Best Win for Buckley? Abdul Razak Alhassan For Morono? Donald Cerrone
Current Streak: Both men won their last bout
X-Factor: There’s a massive gap in athleticism
How these two match up: Barring perhaps some panic wrestling, this reads like a kickboxing match in 4-ounce gloves.

Buckley has yet to break into the ranks of contender, but he’s about as fun to watch as fighters come. “New Mansa” is wildly athletic, and he puts that speed and power to use with bursting combinations between stances, targeting both the head and body. Now that he’s finally at 170 lbs., his usual height and reach disadvantages are far less pronounced.

Morono has settled into the crafty veteran role at Welterweight. A jiu-jitsu black belt with deceptive punching power, Morono has actually won five of his last six bouts, clearly putting him on the best run of his UFC career.

It should be hard to look past the difference in speed here. Buckley is going to land punches-in-bunches on Morono, and he can probably throw him on his head a couple times if need be too. Cardio has never been a huge issue for Buckley, who can maintain his athletic output for 15 minutes.

Yet, I expect Morono to win here. He’s sneakily good at timing his counter shots, a historic issue for Buckley. Plus, he may not look like a huge hitter, but he consistently hurts opponents and earns their respect. Mostly, it feels like Buckley is going to leave him one too many openings, and Morono is just the type of veteran to viciously capitalize.

He’ll likely lose until he wins, but when he does, it’ll be emphatic.

Prediction: Morono via knockout

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Lightweight: Drew Dober vs. Rick Glenn

Best Win for Dober? Bobby Green For Glenn? Dennis Bermudez
Current Streak: Both men lost their last bout
X-Factor: Each man enters following a knockout loss
How these two match up: Oh yeah, this should be a whole lot of fun.

Dober’s legendary chin was finally cracked last time out, but he’s an incredibly fun action fighter. Known for punches-in-bunches and developing knockout power later in his career, Dober briefly broke into the rankings and is looking to get back into the mix. Glenn is a former World Series Of Fighting (WSOF) kingpin and the epitome of a hard-nosed veteran. A tricky Southpaw kickboxer, Glenn also has serious stopping power and is known for his durability as well.

Funnily enough, both men have fairly recent history with the two men in the main event. Dober knocked out Green last year, while Glenn survived two rounds then beat the piss out of Dawson in the third for a draw back in 2021. That little fun fact aside: this is going to be a scrap! Dober only knows how to pressure, and Glenn does his best work against opponents willing to engage him in a war.

I could easily see either man hurting the other early or a knock-down, drag-out fight that makes it to the scorecards. If Glenn is able to impose his reach advantage, however, it feels distinctly possible that Dober walks directly into something major and doesn’t fully recover.

Prediction: Glenn via knockout

Photo by Matt Davies/PxImages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Light Heavyweight: Ion Cutelaba vs. Philipe Lins

Best Win for Cutelaba? Khalil Rountree For Lins? Ovince Saint Preux
Current Streak: Lins has won three in a row, while Cutelaba returned to the win column last time out
X-Factor: Cutelaba is a wild card
How these two match up: I historically suck at picking Cutelaba fights correctly, so betting on this prediction would be ill-advised.

In my defense, it’s tough to get a read on Cutelaba, who always seems on the verge of realizing his potential but never quite gets there. He tends to win or lose dramatically, often because he sprints to the finish and doesn’t always reach the final ribbon. Regardless, he hits very hard and is a skilled wrestler. Lins snagged a quick million over in PFL back in 2018 then realized he was better off at 205 lbs. inside the Octagon. Since dropping down, he’s won three straight fights, showing off good kickboxing and even occasional takedowns.

On one hand, Lins has yet to truly impress me inside the Octagon. On the other, never discount Cutelaba’s ability to suddenly implode and lose in an instant. As such, it’s hard too feel too confident.

At the same time, I must argue in defense of Cutelaba at least a bit: he’s been fighting really good opposition for a long time. His recent record isn’t the prettiest, but I’m unconvinced Lins would be doing any better if pitted against the same opponents. Cutelaba is the bigger hitter and better wrestler, so if he doesn’t collapse suddenly, those talents should keep him in the driver’s seat.

Prediction: Cutelaba via decision

Photo by Matt Davies/PxImages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Featherweight: Alexander Hernandez vs. Bill Algeo

Best Win for Hernandez? Beneil Dariush For Algeo? Spike Carlyle
Current Streak: Both men won their last bout
X-Factor: Hernandez doesn’t belong at 145 lbs.
How these two match up: Last time I wrote an X-Factor, I was baffled by UFC booking Michelle Waterson-Gomez vs. Marina Rodriguez 2 for no reason … and I felt vindicated by the fight itself. This week, I’m similarly bewildered by Hernandez’s decision to return to 145-pounds, the same class that rendered him impotent in the medical sense. I’m tempted to ignore the match up specifics and pick against him simply because he’s probably going to still be feeling like death on fight night.

Nevertheless, Hernandez is a talented wrestler with good power who occasionally struggles down the stretch when pushed. Algeo isn’t quite the standout athlete, but he’s a well-rounded and game veteran comfortable wherever the fight may go. He’s also durable as hell, having never been finished by strikes.

Yeah, Algeo is the exact type of opponent that can exploit Featherweight Hernandez, similar to Billy Quarantillo before him. Algeo may get outwrestled and pushed around in the first five minutes, but when Hernandez starts to fatigue, Algeo will be in his face throwing elbows.

I expect a late stoppage from “Senor Perfecto.”

Prediction: Algeo via knockout

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 80 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN+) at 7 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 80: “Dawson vs. Green” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.