X-Factor! Check out some UFC Vegas 85 main card predictions | Dolidze vs. Imavov

This weekend (Sat., Feb. 3, 2024), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns inside the UFC Apex (sigh) in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 85. Alas, there are still two very uninspired Apex events prior to UFC 298. Both feature Middleweight main events that aren’t overly interesting, and the remaining cards don’t really exceed expectations. The best is to cross our fingers and hope for some cool knockouts and submissions along the way.

In the interim, let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the main- and co-main events:

Welterweight: Randy Brown vs. Muslim Salikhov

Best Win for Brown? Francisco Trinaldo For Salikhov? Francisco Trinaldo!
Current Streak: Brown won his last bout, while Salikhov lost his last one
X-Factor: Salikhov is 39 years old
How these two match up: This is a good quality veteran match up.

Brown has been on the roster since 2016, but it’s only recently that “Rude Boy” has hit his stride. Winner of five of his last six, Brown combines a a sharp jab with a great pace and quality distance management. Salikhov, meanwhile, is “The King Of Kung Fu” for a reason. Best known for his spinning techniques, Salikhov is a slick striker with good power in his hands.

Both men like to strike from distance, and on paper, Salikhov is probably a bit sharper and more effective at their shared preferred range. That said, all of that X-Factors tend to line up in favor of Brown. He’s younger, significantly longer and tends to work at a much higher pace — that’s a lot for Salikhov to overcome.

In addition, if someone’s going to mix it up and wrestle, Brown is probably the guy. Unless Salikhov really hurts him early or gets the stoppage outright, Brown is likely to stay ahead on the scorecards for most of the 15 minutes.

Prediction: Brown via decision

Photo by George Tewkesbury/PA Images via Getty Images

Middleweight: Aliaskhab Khizriev vs. Makhmud Muradov

Best Win for Khizriev? Rousimar Palhares For Muradov? Andrew Sanchez
Current Streak: Khizriev is undefeated at 14-0 (1-0 UFC), whereas Muradoz won his last bout
X-Factor: It’s been almost two years since Khizriev’s last fight
How these two match up: This is another good fight, a quality test of an undefeated up-and-comer.

Is Khizriev the real deal? Undefeated Dagestani talents tend to be pretty good on the whole, but it’s still pretty early to tell with “The Black Wolf.” He’s aggressive on the feet, but his kickboxing is largely a means to an end in setting up his takedowns. Once on top, he tends to be active, and he’s stopped nine opponents. Muradov is more of a striker. “The Money Team” representative can wrestle well enough, but he’s mostly a composed and powerful striker, having won 17 of his fights via knockout.

This is a classic case of a fight that comes down to takedown defense. Can Muradov stop the shot? A simple question, but not an easy one to answer.

Ultimately, it’s hard to overlook Muradov’s loss to Gerald Meerschaert. It’s not that Muradov coughed up a couple takedowns in the defeat that’s concerning, but more the fact that Meerschaert was able to bully him with pressure and eventually break him down. Against a relentless wrestler with power in his hands, that sounds like a problem.

Prediction: Khizriev via decision

Photo by Louis Grasse/PxImages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Welterweight: Gilbert Urbina vs. Charles Radtke

Best Win for Urbina? Orion Cosce For Radtke? Andrew Sanchez
Current Streak: Both men won their last bout
X-Factor: Both are still fairly inexperienced
How these two match up: Even in 2024 — and even in the Apex — this bout belongs nowhere near a UFC main card.

That said, Urbina has some talent. The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veteran has fought a lot of tough opposition for a man with fewer than 10 professional fights. He’s also a rather massive Welterweight — 6’3” with a 75-inch reach — who can push the pace offensively. The most memorable part of Radtke’s UFC debut were the slurs in his post-fight speech. The 33-year-old isn’t likely going to rise to be a contender anytime soon, but he’s well-rounded and tough enough to pick up some wins inside the Octagon.

This feels like a showcase match up. Urbina just picked apart and battered a similar grinder in Radtke, showing off that punishing style of long man takedown defense paired with clinch and distance offense. Most likely, Radtke ends up stranded on the feet after an early takedown or two, and he’s too hittable to survive there for long.

Urbina picks up his second UFC win.

Prediction: Urbina via knockout

Photo by Paul Rutherford/Getty Images

Women’s Flyweight: Natalia Silva vs. Viviane Araujo

Best Win for Silva? Andrea Lee For Araujo? Jennifer Maia
Current Streak: Silva has won four straight inside the Octagon, whereas Araujo won her last bout
X-Factor: Both hit harder than the usual Flyweight
How these two match up: Top 10 fighters collide!

Silva is one of the few bright lights at 125 pounds. Indeed, a 26-year-old finisher with well-rounded skills? It’s almost unheard of! She seems primed to a top contender — if not champion — for years to come, though there is still some roughness around the edges to be smoothed away.

Araujo is a veteran of her division and has faced off with several future or former title challengers. She’s never quite managed to achieve those heights herself, largely because the top-ranked members of her division tend to out-work her down the stretch. Still, she’s a quality athlete with dangerous kickboxing and strong takedowns.

This feels like something of a mirror match up. Both women rely heavily on their quickness and power to cover ground suddenly and land heavy shots. They’ll wrestle occasionally — admittedly, Araujo a bit more than Silva — but their overall success is based on athleticism. If that athleticism cancels out, what happens?

I think the younger woman gets it done. Silva can keep the fight standing, and she should hold up better as the fight wears on. It’ll be close, but a few big connections down the stretch sway the judges.

Prediction: Silva via decision

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 85 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also on ESPN+) at 7 p.m. ET.

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 85: “Dolidze vs. Imavov” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.