Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight contenders Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval will go to war TONIGHT (Sat., Feb. 24, 2024) inside Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico at UFC Mexico City.
For the second time in two years, Moreno coughed up his Flyweight crown via a highly competitive decision. At this point, an extended “Assassin Baby” title reign feels unlikely — too many back-and-forth wars! — but Moreno remains more than good enough to take the belt a third time.
Royval is also looking to rebound from a defeat to Alexandre Pantoja, but his loss was far more one-sided. All the same, “Raw Dog” is one of the division’s most unpredictable finishers, and he’s looking for revenge after a shoulder injury cost him his first shot at upsetting Moreno in November 2020.
Let’s take a closer look at the keys to victory for each man:
Brandon Moreno
Record: 21-7-1
Key Wins: Deiveson Figueiredo (UFC 283, UFC 263), Kai Kara-France (UFC 277), Jussier Formiga (UFC Fight Night 170), Dustin Ortiz (UFC Fight Night 108), Brandon Royval (UFC 255), Kai Kara-France (UFC 245)
Key Losses: Alexandre Pantoja (UFC 290, UFC Fight Night 129), Deiveson Figueiredo (UFC 270), Sergio Pettis (UFC Fight Night 114)
Keys to Victory: Moreno may have refined all the technical aspects of his game over the years, but deep in his fighter’s heart, the man loves to scrap. Fortunately, he’s got an iron jaw and the division’s best jab, which go a long way in the blood-and-guts battles in which Moreno tends to find himself.
In the first fight, Moreno turned to his wrestling advantage and found good early success. There’s a difference in both physicality and pure wrestling ability between the two, and both aspects favor Moreno. Royval’s shoulder injury was fluky, but it did happen from Moreno slamming him into the canvas, and Moreno’s ability to take down “Raw Dog” was certainly no fluke.
I’d like to see Moreno pressing Royval, forcing him onto the back foot. That’s unusual territory for Royval, but Moreno has the jab and fast combinations to make it happen. The second Royval stands his ground to fire back in combination, that should serve as the perfect takedown opportunity.
Moreno has to be wary of the guillotine, but once on top, he can control and fatigue Royval with pressure passing.
Brandon Royval
Record: 15-7
Key Wins: Kai Kara-France (UFC 253), Matheus Nicolau (UFC Kansas City), Matt Schnell (UFC 274), Tim Elliott (UFC Vegas 1)
Key Losses: Alexandre Pantoja (UFC 296, UFC Vegas 34), Brandon Moreno (UFC 255), Casey Kenney (LFA 53)
Keys to Victory: Royval is chaos. The lanky Southpaw has been hanging back at distance a little more as he’s climbed the ranks, but when he lets loose an offensive flurry, it’s an unpredictable combination of knees, kicks, and punches that can do major damage. Oh, and he’s a jiu-jitsu black belt with a bunch of wins via tapout.
Plain and simple, Royval has to keep the fight upright. The odds just aren’t great on winning from his back. Moreno is too skilled on the floor himself, so unless Royval hurts Moreno first, a triangle from guard just isn’t going to happen.
Royval can win this fight by doing damage. He’s got a style of kickboxing that can really break down an opponent: long kicks at distance, knees and elbows in close, and long combinations in the pocket. If Royval can stay on his front feet, he can start hitting Moreno’s legs and body while forcing bad shots from the former champion — takedown attempts Royval can defend.
Moreno is tough as nails, but nobody fights as well after two dozen low kicks and a bunch of intercepting knees to the gut.
Bottom Line
It could be a Flyweight title eliminator.
… But hopefully not. Both Moreno and Royval lost to Alexandre Pantoja in their most recent fight, so it would be a little early to run it back already. There aren’t a ton of other great options at 125-pounds, however, so it wouldn’t be impossible for the victor of this fight to see Pantoja yet again.
Seeing as it’s a possible title eliminator, the stakes are of course high. Royval is looking to avoid consecutive losses, as well as an 0-4 run against Moreno and Pantoja, which would seriously halt his chances at climbing the ladder. Moreno, meanwhile, doesn’t want to take a step back, because he’s a popular ex-champion who hasn’t lost outside of a title fight since 2018.
At UFC Mexico City, Brandon Moreno and Brandon Royval will clash in the main event. Which man earns the victory?
This story originally appeared on MMA Mania
