On Jan. 20, 2025, the American economy was strong, with low unemployment, manageable inflation and a near-record-high stock market. American military prowess was strong and buttressed by NATO and a global network of allies and partners. American democracy was admired by much of the world.
For more than 30 years, the United States had sustained a unique combination of hard and soft power, despite the failures of 9/11 and the blunders in Iraq and Afghanistan, which had brought billions out of poverty and prevented major war.
We were the most powerful nation in the world.
However, the United States faced a growing threat from a group of nations led by Russia, and including China, Iran and North Korea, determined to overturn the US-led rules-based international order on which American security and prosperity depended.
Russia’s aggression in Ukraine had resulted in almost three years of intense warfare in which perhaps a million combatants and civilians had been killed or wounded, and threatened Europe, America’s largest trading partner and investor.
But a new president was coming into office, a president who had campaigned on “peace through strength,” and who claimed a special relationship with Vladimir Putin.
What could possibly go wrong?
War intensifies
Unfortunately, President Trump’s second term has brought shocking developments virtually every day. The risk of major war is actually increasing.
It began with two nominees deeply unqualified for their jobs as director of national intelligence and secretary of defense. Loyalty was placed above experience and competence.
Then the fits of revenge and politicization began. Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley was demonized; top service lawyers and inspectors general were dismissed; search-and-destroy missions were waged against any courses, library books or extracurricular activities that evoked any trace of “woke,” and more.
Perhaps none of this actually cut into the hard power of the nation; strikes against the Houthi forces in Yemen are continuing at a brisk pace, and elsewhere US soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines are deployed, training and exercising — but no doubt the ability to provide candid and effective advice to the president has been at least temporarily compromised.
And the war in Ukraine has, if anything, intensified.
Preemptive concessions by the US to Russia — that Ukraine must give up on NATO membership and the return of its territories, plus the promise of a renewed US-Russia relationship — as well as a number of internal measures, like pausing offensive cyber operations against Moscow, have failed to woo Vladimir Putin into a cease-fire.
It remains to be seen whether Trump’s most recent chiding of Putin represents a genuine change in the president’s perspective, or elicits any real Russian willingness to make concessions.
Russia is preparing for a major offensive against Sumi and Kharkiv, perhaps followed by a lunge to seize Odessa in the southwest. The loss of Odessa would be a major and perhaps decisive blow to Ukraine.
Russian forces are simultaneously strengthening their positions against Finland and the Baltic states in what could be a prelude to the next phase of Russia’s war on Europe.
Ukrainians think Trump is on Putin’s side. So does Moscow.
Perhaps the most immediate consequence is the impact on our alliances. Our European allies in NATO have been deeply offended by Trump’s tariffs and US threats to “walk away” from Europe. The US is no longer seen as a reliable ally.
Our rivals and potential adversaries are sensing opportunity.
New priorities
This administration’s new national strategy hasn’t been unveiled, but its outlines are clear — and dangerously naïve.
China is to be the principal threat; protecting the US southern border a second priority and dealing with the Iranian nuclear threat might be a third.
Russia, it appears, must be brought back into the global community. Perhaps the idea is that Putin can be persuaded to side with the US against China, and therefore stopping the fighting in Ukraine must occur at any cost, whatever the impact on the rule of law and our European partners.
Europe will be largely on its own for defense and security in this emerging strategy.
US strategic nuclear forces will be enhanced, deterrent capabilities in the western Pacific must be strengthened, the Navy must repair its ships and build more, and a Golden Dome of space-based and ground-based interceptors will protect the US homeland from missile attack.
And, while the US will remain a member of NATO, most US forces will be withdrawn from Europe, and the US might remain on the sidelines in the event of any conflict there.
Strong-headed
The defense budget will be cut by 8%, with the US Army as the major “billpayer,” with cuts of up to 90,000 active-duty troops now on the horizon.
All of this, if it comes to pass, will clearly reduce American hard power in the near term and open the doors for much more aggressive action by Russia against American allies in Europe and perhaps an eventual move by China against Taiwan.
Peace through strength? We are not off to a good start.
Gen. Wesley Clark is a former NATO Supreme Allied Commander.
This story originally appeared on NYPost
