Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) once again calls upon the Heavyweights to helm tomorrow’s (Sat., March 16, 2024) ESPN+ “Fight Night” at the APEX, which sees struggling Aussie slugger Tai Tuivasa battle stalwart veteran Marcin Tybura.
Our usual main card guy ran into the desert screaming something about “Lisan al Gaib,” so prediction duty falls to me.
Before we dive into both the main event and the co-feature pitting Ultimate Fighter (TUF) winner Bryan Battle against rising Contender Series graduate Ange Loosa, take a peek at our “Prelims” breakdowns here and here, plus the odds and betting props courtesy of DraftKings here and the inimitable Andrew Richardson’s analysis of the remaining main card bouts here.
265 lbs.: Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura
Tai “Bam Bam” Tuivasa
Record: 15-6 | Age: 30 | Betting line: -118
Wins: 14 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 6’2” | Reach: 75” | Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.98 | Striking accuracy: 49%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.98 | Striking Defense: 43%
Takedown Average: 0.00 (0% accuracy)| Takedown Defense: 54%
Current Ranking: No. 9 | Last fight: Submission loss to Alexander Volkov
Marcin “Tybur” Tybura
Record: 24-8 | Age: 38| Betting line: -102
Wins: 8 KO/TKO, 7 SUB, 9 DEC | Losses: 5 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 6’3” | Reach: 78” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.55 | Striking accuracy: 48%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.35 | Striking Defense: 55%
Takedown Average: 1.39 (33% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 79%
Current Ranking: No. 10 | Last fight: Knockout loss to Tom Aspinall
Tybura’s UFC tenure is, in a lot of ways, quite laudable. He was 1-4 and on the brink of being cut at one point, but quietly clawed his way up the ranks with seven wins in eight fights before understandably falling short against Aspinall.
The keys to his success are a pair of rare qualities among Heavyweights: well-roundedness and a strong gas tank. Against the sub-elite, he strikes well enough to beat the wrestlers and wrestles well enough to beat the strikers. Beating him generally requires either capitalizing on his leaden footwork to potshot or just straight-up bulldozing him with pure power.
Assuming Tuivasa has any shred of confidence left after this string of disastrous losses, he fits the latter category. Though he’s never quite developed into the Mark Hunt 2.0 we dreamed of, his hands are as heavy if not heavier than those of Tybura’s past conquerors like Shamil Abdurakhimov and Augusto Sakai. Tybura surviving long enough to weaponize his gas tank is far easier said than done.
At the same time, Tuivasa has a history of collapsing against dogged grapplers, most notably the glacial Blagoy Ivanov and front-running Serghei Spivac. Tybura has made a career out of dragging explosive threats into deep water and drowning them, from sluggers like Greg Hardy and Walt Harris to fellow wrestler Alexandr Romanov.
These two’s strengths perfectly slot into one another’s weaknesses; it’s as much a coin flip as the odds suggest. I do, however, have to lean towards Tuivasa. Tybura lacks both the elusiveness that Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov used to defuse Tuivasa and the raw horsepower that Sergei Pavlovich used to blow him away, giving Tuivasa little reason not to put the pedal to the metal right off the bat.
Plus, while Tybura’s grappling is a threat, Tuivasa has given up a mere two takedowns since the Spivac debacle and successfully got out from underneath the gargantuan Derrick Lewis both times.
If Tybura can stretch things out until around the midway point of the second round, he’s golden. I just don’t see him avoiding Tuivasa’s onslaught for that long.
Prediction: Tuivasa def. Tybura by first-round knockout
170 lbs.: Bryan Battle vs. Ange Loosa
Bryan “Pooh Bear” Battle
Record: 10-2 | Age: 29 | Betting line: -185
Wins: 3 KO/TKO, 5 SUB, 2 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 5 1 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 6’1” | Reach: 77” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.52 | Striking accuracy: 54%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.73 | Striking Defense: 42%
Takedown Average: 0.94 (25% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 45%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Submission win over AJ Fletcher
Ange “The Last Ninja” Loosa
Record: 10-3 | Age: 30 | Betting line: +154
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 5’10” | Reach: 74” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 6.32 | Striking accuracy: 46%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 6.88 | Striking Defense: 51%
Takedown Average: 2.25 (45% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 100%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Decision win over Rhys McKee
To be frank, this shouldn’t be a co-main event. This is a main card opener or a featured Prelim at best.
Taken on its own merits, though, it’s a damn good matchup. Both of these men have feasted from the bottom of the Welterweight barrel for long enough, and having bounced back from rough defeats, it’s time to put their improvements to the test.
The bookies weren’t wrong to make Battle a moderate favorite. Loosa had all sorts of trouble with the similarly rangy Mounir Lazzez and Battle is adept at using that reach, whether by potshotting heavier hitters like Tresean Gore or punishing aggressors like Gabe Green with counters as they step in.
That said, I’m feeling the upset. Loosa’s hands are far sharper than anything Battle’s faced in the Octagon, he’s got the gas tank to land triple-digit strikes, and he’s proven inordinately difficult to finish despite the best efforts of monsters like Jack Della Maddalena. He has also become an increasingly adept wrestler of late, and though Battle did keep out-wrestle AJ Fletcher, it’s hard to forget the ease with which Rinat Fakhretdinov but him through the wringer.
Loosa’s edge in speed and firepower, combined with his output and grappling, just give him too many weapons. Battle won’t go away easy, but expect Loosa to land the heavier blows and land a few clutch takedowns to edge out a firefight.
Prediction: Loosa def. Battle by split decision
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 88 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ preliminary card bouts at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the ESPN+ main card start time at 7 p.m. ET.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 88 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here. For the updated and finalized “Tuivasa vs. Tybura” fight card and ESPN+ line up click here.
This story originally appeared on MMA Mania
