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It’s strange to think that just last year, investors were celebrating the FTSE 100 breaking through 8,000 points. Now sitting above 9,500, it seems almost inevitable that the index will smash the historic 10,000 mark.
But can it still happen in 2025, with the year rapidly drawing to a close? I decided to see what the experts think.
Cautious optimism
The Footsie’s been on a roll this year. It broke 8,800 points in February and crossed 9,000 in July. As October began, the index surged again, touching a new record above 9,400 points. Momentum, valuation strength and broad sector resilience have helped push it to fresh highs.
Some commentators even suggest it could reach 10,000 by Christmas if current momentum holds. However, few major analysts are that bullish. Citigroup recently nudged its mid-2026 FTSE 100 target from 9,300 to 9,700 — a positive signal, but still shy of five figures.
Trend-based forecasts paint a similar picture. Many models suggest an end-of-2025 level near 9,638, with longer-term projections stretching towards 11,800. The Economy Forecast Agency, for example, sees potential for 11,600-13,347 by mid-2027, implying plenty of growth ahead even if 10,000 proves elusive this year.
So while optimism’s building, the consensus remains cautious. The broader market may need another leg of earnings growth or a strong boost from the commodities and financial sectors to tip over that symbolic milestone.
Driving the optimism
One FTSE 100 stock that’s doing its part to lift the index is Fresnillo (LSE: FRES). The Mexican-based precious metals miner has been one of 2025’s standout performers, soaring an astonishing 280% since January.
In its latest H1 2025 earnings results, announced on 30 June, it posted a 34.84% year on year revenue boost to £3.05bn. Earnings did even better, up 78.48% to £351.92m, giving it a net margin of 11.54%.
Rising gold and silver prices have been a key catalyst. With gold recently topping $4,000 per ounce, the company’s profit margins have expanded sharply. Now, its forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio sits around 23.7 – well above the FTSE average. Yet its price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of 0.61 hints that earnings are keeping pace with valuation.
Still, there are risks. Gold and silver are classic safe-haven assets that tend to rise when investors worry about inflation, debt or geopolitical instability. Should confidence return to global markets or interest rates rise faster than expected, demand could cool quickly – pulling precious metals, and Fresnillo’s share price, down with it.
Despite this, I think it remains a stock worth considering. It’s a strong business with efficient operations, low production costs and a robust balance sheet. Even if commodity prices ease, its long-term fundamentals look solid.
My take
The FTSE 100’s march toward 10,000 might not happen in 2025 – but it feels closer than ever. With heavyweight stocks like Fresnillo helping to fuel momentum and earnings growth returning across the board, the index appears well-positioned for steady progress.
I think patient investors could see 10,000 in sight before long, even if they have to wait a little past New Year’s Eve.
This story originally appeared on Motley Fool
