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I was thinking about the Aston Martin (LSE:AML) share price the other day while I was watching Quantum of Solace. The film starts with a high-speed chase around Lake Garda, Italy, with James Bond in an Aston Martin DBS V12, being pursued by Alfa Romeos full of gunmen.
At the end of the sequence, Bond’s DBS is a wreck – riddled with bullet holes, doors torn off, windscreen shattered, and so on. This reminded me of the bombed-out Aston Martin share price, which has crashed 40% in 12 months and around 98% since IPO in 2018.
Naturally though, Bond still comes out on top in the film, against all the odds. Could Aston Martin stock do something similar?
The eternal turnaround story
To get a sense of what a turnaround might look like, I asked ChatGPT for some things to look out for. “Ah,” it started, “the eternal turnaround story that keeps turning… in circles.”
Then it named some things that might rev up this FTSE 250 stock. First, there’s the mid-engine Valhalla hypercars due by the end of 2025. They’ll be around £850,000, according to Car Magazine.
Aston Martin says a 12-month order book for 999 of them is already in place, with over 50% of customers new to the brand. It expects 150 to be delivered by the end of the year. So this is encouraging for shareholders.
ChatGPT says that if this hypercar lands well with customers, it could cement Aston Martin as “a genuine rival to Ferrari”. I wouldn’t go that far, but it could definitely boost margins and investor confidence.
The chatbot says a move to positive free cash flow would be another bullish signal. Unfortunately, the company warned earlier this month that its annual loss would now be deeper than previously anticipated, at more than £110m. And it no longer expects positive free cash flow generation in the second half.
It blamed weak demand in the US and Asia Pacific, as well as tariff uncertainty. It has already nudged up prices across the pond due to a 10% tariff on UK-built cars. But with only 100,000 vehicles a year qualifying for that lower rate, some US exports could face a hefty 25% tariff.
In typically understated British fashion, Aston Martin has called the tariff situation “unhelpful”.
My move
Finally, ChatGPT said a “professional CEO” would help Aston Martin, as Amedeo Felisa’s tenure is transitional. Of course, this is out-of-date nonsense, as CEO Adrian Hallmark has been in charge since last year.
Industry veteran Hallmark is one thing I like here, as is the high-margin Valhalla. Also, it was reported today (17 October) that Ferrari will start cutting the number of cars it sells in the UK (super-rich clients are fleeing these shores due to tax changes).
Might longer waiting lists for new Ferraris push impatient buyers towards Aston Martin’s new range? It’s possible.
Still, I’m worried that the firm can’t shake its bad habit of overpromising and underdelivering on financial targets. It only had total liquidity of £250m in September, suggesting more cash will probably need to be raised in 2026.
I’m saddened to see Aston Martin stock so at odds with the legendary brand. But it’s not for me. I doubt even 007 would bet his last chip on this turnaround.
This story originally appeared on Motley Fool
