Avatar: Fire and Ash is heading to theaters, and James Cameron’s epic sci-fi franchise is ready to take audiences back to the lush, beautiful world of Pandora. While audiences have eaten up the franchise at the box office in the past, the next sequel holds a lot of sway over the franchise’s future.
Given how Avatar has performed at the box office, Fire and Ash had a lot to live up to when it comes to its worldwide gross. Still, the franchise was planned for five films, with rumors circulating that the latest installment may be the last if it fails to deliver the returns the studios are eyeing. Yet, with a franchise like Avatar, what is the benchmark for success? How much money will Avatar: Fire and Ash need to pull in at the box office for the franchise to continue?
‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ Could Underperform at the Box Office
With any franchise that puts up the substantial numbers that Avatar has in theaters, the expectations surrounding Fire and Ash couldn’t be higher. Most franchises lose steam as they roll along, with diminishing returns that eventually see them laid to rest. Even with Avatar’s staggering returns, the expectations are likely the same. Some franchises have bucked the trend, like The Conjuring: Last Rites, which has become the biggest hit for the horror series yet. Still, even with those possibilities, the next Avatar may face lower box office.
Avatar: Fire and Ash is expected to open in the $90-105 million range, which puts it nearly $30 million lower than The Way of Water’s opening. Those numbers are also down from earlier tracking reports from a few weeks ago, which set the third film’s opening at $110-$130 million. International numbers are expected to add to the film’s epic haul, with the worldwide opening looking to be in the $340-$365 million range.
While the opening weekend of Fire and Ash looks to be lower than The Way of Water, the Avatar franchise is known for having legs at the box office. The latest sequel will open big and, like the last two, will likely remain in the Top 10 at the box office for weeks to come. The box office returns could still come in lower than the past two films, but if Fire and Ash has similar staying power as past entries, it could be another $2+ billion hit for the series. If that is the case, Avatar would be the first franchise to accomplish the feat of seeing all entries earn over $2 billion, but that remains to be seen.
There are numerous factors affecting the box office right now, with plenty of options for audiences to choose from, and the economy is seeing some steer clear of extraneous expenses. Avatar: Fire and Ash may also face other problems that could affect its box office performance, as it has the lowest review scores in the franchise. While still a respectable 71% on Rotten Tomatoes (as of this writing, it comes in below the rest. Fire and Ash is also the longest in the franchise, clocking in at over 3 hours, meaning it will get fewer showings in a day than past installments simply due to its runtime.
Will Audiences Ever See ‘Avatar 4’ and ‘Avatar 5’?
Even Cameron has thrown doubt on the future of the Avatar franchise. While the director is confident in his sci-fi epics, he knows that he set an impossibly high bar, leaving the future in limbo. Cameron recently stated:
“I have no doubt in my mind that this movie will make money. The question is, does it make enough money to justify doing it again?:
The future of the Avatar franchise hinges entirely on how Fire and Ash perform at the box office. If the results are drastically lower than the past installments, it may no longer be able to justify the large budgets needed to continue with Cameron’s sequel plans for Avatar 4 and 5. Still, even if fans don’t get to see more Avatar films in theaters, the Terminator director has no plans to let the story die, already stating that it can continue in books, allowing fans to keep exploring Pandora and the Sully family’s life. If audiences hope to see more Avatar films in theaters, getting out to see Fire and Ash is the best way to show interest and spur the series into future sequels.
With the film’s budget landing at around $400, and the typical equation being that films need to make 2.5x their budget to start making a profit, this would mean a minimum of $1 billion is needed. Many have misinterpreted a previous James Cameron quote about the entries needing $2 billion to begin making money; even coming close to the $2 billion mark would make this movie an incredible success for Disney.
This story originally appeared on Movieweb
