Compatible Android devices (the Pixel 10 family, at present) need to update the Quick Share Extension in the Privacy and Security section of their settings. If the feature is actually secure and manages to proliferate across other Android devices, I think a lot of people — Android and iOS owners alike — will enjoy using it.
Enterprise and regulatory implications
IT managers will likely want to make sure it is possible to disable file-sharing through QuickShrare and Air Drop using standard device management tools on both Android and Apple devices. It should be possible on Apple’s systems, as you can already prevent use of AirDrop on managed iPhones. All the same, business entities will likely want to constrain this new opportunity for data exfiltration.
Will Apple put a stop to it? I hope not. Because while I understand how important and complex it is to maintain security and privacy across Apple’s ecosystem, we do exist in a multi-platform world — and there does seem to be plenty of protection in place in how Google has approached it.
Lego sets make incredible gifts, at least according to our 10-year-old selves — and as people who review gadgets instead of getting real jobs, we’re very in touch with our inner children. And those inner children are squealing at some of the Lego Black Friday toy deals we’re already seeing, like Disney and Harry Potter advent calendars, detailed Star Wars models and Lego’s own brands like Creator, Friends and Botanicals. More deals are popping up all the time, and we’ll note them for you here as soon as they’re live.
We always recommend using a price tracker to determine if a Lego deal is in fact a good one. You’ll find Lego deals this holiday season at retailers like Amazon and Walmart, but don’t overlook Lego’s own site. If you join the free Lego Insiders program, you’ll get special discounts and exclusive member gifts with each purchase, plus points you can redeem for your next set or bucket.
We’re still watching for a deal on the hottest Lego gift of the season, the Star Trek USS Enterprise set, which was just announced. With a titanic 3,600 pieces and mini-figures of the whole Next Generation crew (Guinan is a standout), it will be a must-have for any Star Trek fans. The set will be available for $400 starting November 28.
The United States has threatened to cut intelligence sharing and weapons supplies for Ukraine to press it into agreeing to a 28-point plan, which endorses some of Russia’s principal demands in the war, including that Kyiv cede additional territory, curb the size of its military and be barred from joining NATO. The sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that Kyiv was under greater pressure from Washington than during any previous peace discussions. For in-depth analysis and a deeper perspective, Jean-Emile Jammine is pleased to welcome Ian Lesser, Author and Distinguished Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
One day after the government shutdown ended , a ranger ambled down a trail in Joshua Tree National Park, bathed in golden light.
It was her first day back, and she had just walked through a sea of scorched Joshua trees rising from blackened earth, their dagger-like leaves bleached an unhealthy yellow.
It was one of the spots in the park where the trees are supposed to be able to live, even 100 years from now, the ranger said, when most places in the park will not be suitable for Joshua trees.
“So to see those ones that should be the parents of the next generation…” she said, her voice trailing off. She spoke anonymously for fear of retaliation.
Fire retardant was dropped to help extinguish the Black Rock fire, covering many plants, including this Beavertail cactus.
This was “a nightmare scenario,” said a firefighter with the park, who also spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retaliation. During the last government shutdown six years ago, the revelation that vandals appeared to have chopped down a few of the Dr. Seuss-esque trees grabbed national headlines. In this instance, the firefighter estimates more than a thousand trees were torched. Brendan Cummings, conservation director for the Center for Biological Diversity, also surveyed the plants in the burn zone and came up with a similar estimate.
The area, not far from Black Rock Campground, is one of the park’s densest Joshua tree woodlands. Perched at a higher elevation, it’s considered a climate refuge for the iconic trees, which are threatened by warming, drying conditions lower down.
According to the firefighter, the fire began last month when a park visitor lit his toilet paper on fire. Firefighters halted it quickly at 72 acres, but many trees had already been seared.
It was a “totally avoidable tragedy,” he said. Rangers who could have provided important education about fire safety were not working as a result of the shutdown, he said.
Elizabeth Peace, a spokesperson for the Department of the Interior, said the cause of the fire remains under investigation.
One of many damaged Joshua trees that dot the landscape in the Black Rock fire burn scar.
Looking forward, “normally we would try and … restore that critical habitat that we’ve lost,” the firefighter said. But even with the government reopened, he said operations remain hobbled by staff losses that disproportionately affect conservation and restoration, including saving Joshua trees and desert tortoises. “So we’re going to have to do less. We can’t do as much to save the trees.”
The park’s resources division was once 30-strong, he said, and is now down to six full-time and one part-time employees. About a third of the team has left since Trump took the White House for the second time, amid pressured retirements that affected the whole park service, he said.
The Interior’s Peace said that the resources team never consisted of 30 full-time staffers, and that contractors also help get the work done.
The firefighter estimates 15 to 30% of the trees damaged in the Black Rock fire will resprout, growing new stems from their root systems. It’s a chance at new life, but many don’t survive. Jackrabbits or other critters that need the water encased in the plant often gobble them up. A good way to protect them is fairly basic: Put up protective cages.
It’s possible there will be little or no active restoration.
“Park leadership determined that the scale and impacts of the fire did not warrant a large-scale restoration effort,” Peace said in a statement, adding that the park service must balance priorities.
Taking no action is under serious consideration, the firefighter said. In that case, sources said, most new Joshua tree growth would come from seeds brought into the burn scar by seed dispersers like antelope squirrels. Joshua trees grown from seed can take 50 to 70 years to be able to reproduce.
Brendan Cummings, conservation director for the Center for Biological Diversity, walks through ashen terrain in the burn scar.
Cummings of the Center for Biological Diversity, which petitioned to list the Joshua tree under the California Endangered Species Act, said a hands-off approach generally would not bode well for the iconic trees. But what he described as underfunding of the park service — on top of a proposed $1 billion budget cut — could force difficult choices.
“In the era of climate change, Joshua trees won’t survive in Joshua Tree National Park absent active management,” Cummings said.
That includes replanting them in burn areas and maybe watering them, he said.
Doing what’s needed “to ensure the species has the best chance of surviving the difficult decades ahead should be [officials’] No. 1 priority,” he said, given that the plant is inscribed into the name of the park. “But they’re also under mandates to operate campgrounds and keep the roads functional and things of that sort.”
In her statement, Peace said that active management of the trees is important for their persistence, “which is why the superintendent balances those [resource management] priorities.”
The trees — which are actually succulents — are protected by a special state conservation law and are candidates for California’s threatened species list.
Baby Joshua trees, along with other plants commonly found in Joshua Tree National Park, are growing in an open-air nursery at the Mojave Desert Land Trust. The conservation nonprofit plans to transfer the plants to the park next fall, where they’ll be used to restore damaged areas.
Environmentalists see fire as an existential threat to the trees. Blazes were once rare in the Mojave Desert, but have become increasingly common amid hotter, drier conditions and more extreme swings in precipitation.
Invasive species like red brome and Mediterranean split grass are also driving the uptick.
Walking to the recently burned area, Cummings pointed to a young Joshua tree choked with dry grass. “The grass can carry the fire right up to the tree,” he said. Thirty years ago, the earth around the tree would have been mostly bare.
It’s not all doom and gloom. The recent fire could have been much bigger and more ferocious. It’s still uncertain how many of the trees it scorched will perish. Green leaves are visible on the pineapple-like crowns of many of them, though plant experts said that doesn’t mean they’ll make it.
And not far from the park, an army of trees is being grown as a sort of insurance policy for such calamities. In June, the Mojave Desert Land Trust, a conservation nonprofit, partnered with Joshua Tree to grow more than 3,000 plants of 29 common species — including hundreds of Joshua trees — from seeds gathered in the park. The plan is to transfer them to the park next fall.
The park has a small nursery of its own, but after contending with significant damage from large fires in recent years, officials want an arsenal of plants to respond efficiently, said Patrick Emblidge, the land trust’s plant conservation program manager. In the Mojave, he added, restoration is more successful if plants suited for specific areas of the park are used and the response is prompt.
As dusk settles in, Patrick Emblidge of the Mojave Desert Land Trust tends to young desert plants, including Joshua trees that are just a few inches tall.
“You think of desert as pretty sparse, but natural plant density in the desert is, I think, somewhere around 3,000 plants per acre, and these fires cover hundreds of acres,” he said. “So to get back to that natural ecosystem, vegetative structure, you really do need a ton of plants.”
Emblidge described the Black Rock fire as “exactly why we’re doing this project.”
It’ll be a long time before the baby Joshua trees resemble the gnarled icons that dot the park. Those sown in August are currently just tiny blue-green shoots. By the time they are handed over next year, Emblidge expects they’ll be just about six inches tall. Six-year-old trees at the nursery looked like spiky pineapple tops.
One of the many desert plants being grown at the Mojave Desert Land Trust for future restoration work at nearby Joshua Tree National Park.
Last week, many of the baby plants were laid out in rows in plastic containers in the land trust’s open-air nursery. Amid fading light, the delicate fledglings fluttered in a wind portending a storm.
Most parents spend the early years thinking about sleep routines, nursery fees and, in my case, arguing about which “pretty outfit” is most appropriate when there’s frost on the ground. A pension is usually nowhere near the list. Yet opening a Self-Invested Personal Pension (SIPP) could be one of the most satisfying financial decisions of these early years.
To kick things off, the government’s top-up is simply too good to waste. A junior SIPP allows contributions of £2,880 a year, and HMRC automatically boosts that to £3,600. That 25% uplift is instant, guaranteed, and available every single year in the form of 20% tax relief.
Then thereâs the power of time. The £5,500 already invested has over 50 years to compound. If it grew at 9.6% — the average growth of UK Stocks and Shares ISA over the past decade — over the next 50 years — without any further contributions — it’d be worth £665k at the end of the period.
Add ongoing contributions â even small ones â and the eventual numbers become genuinely life-changing. Add £320 a month and that end figure become £5.4m.
Please note that tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in future. The content in this article is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to be, neither does it constitute, any form of tax advice. Readers are responsible for carrying out their own due diligence and for obtaining professional advice before making any investment decisions.
Thereâs also a softer motivation that matters just as much. The world’s expensive. Housing, education, and the sheer unpredictability of adult life create pressures that didnât exist a generation ago.
What’s more, there’s artificial intelligence (AI) to think about. Elon Musk said the other day that work will become optional in the coming decades as humanoid robots do the heavy lifting… sounds great, but how are the next generations going to earn money?
Knowing thereâs already a quiet, growing financial seed planted for the future brings real peace of mind. Itâs an early gift. It’s not just money, but breathing room.
Finally, it sets a tone. One day this child will ask why a pension appeared before memories did. It’s about setting the standard for long-term thinking and financial planning.
So yes, a two-year-old with a £5.5k SIPP’s unusual. But maybe it’s something more people should consider.
Where to invest?
The most recent addition to the SIPP is Micron (NASDAQ:MU). The company makes memory and storage solutions, including DRAM, and NAND, which are used in everything from personal computers and smartphones to data centres and automotive applications.
The most important part of this portfolio is DRAM, and specific high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Micron leads due to advanced process technology, scale, and reliability. And these are crucial for AI.
However, the company’s still valued like a cyclical stock — memory used to be very cyclical. And I don’t think that’s the case anymore, because of AI. This is what CFO Mark Murphy said at the Global Technology Conference:
“Data centre demand, which includes a lot of our highest value products, is especially strong. All other markets are also healthy. We expect growing AI demand to drive a multi-year data center buildout globally.”
There are still risks. Peers could catch up technologically. AI could develop to use less HBM. However, from what we see today, I think it’s a stock worth considering.
Should you invest £1,000 in Micron Technology, Inc. right now?
When investing expert Mark Rogers has a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Motley Fool Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.
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James Fox has positions in Micron Technology. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.
A woman who has chosen to reject the NHS and travel to China for medical treatment has revealed the reasons behind her decision. “I’m ill but I am flying to China next week to do my medical tests and diagnostic tests there instead of pursuing it through the NHS with my GP,” Amie began in a TikTok video. Acknowledging that her decision sounds “ridiculous”, she explained it would take at least a fortnight just to secure an appointment in the UK.
But in the Far East during that time period, Amie claims she could consult a specialist, undergo several tests including an endoscopy, receive her results, and be placed on a treatment plan. “Who knows if they would even do those tests or take me seriously?” Amie said of her GP, expressing concerns her local practitioner could simply dismiss her complaints due to her young age.
She continued: “This is not me trying to s*** on the NHS. I actually checked and I have contributed £54,000 over the last five years to National Insurance, which obviously is taken out of my pay. And to think that I actually feel that I can’t even get diagnostic tests for when I have been really unwell for a really long time… it’s just really s***.”
Amie reiterated her stance that she isn’t simply “bashing” the NHS, but went on to claim the service just “isn’t working” any more.
“So I’m going to China next week on my own – to Beijing – and I’m going to see a specialist and get all the diagnostics,” she said. “This is so weird and I’ve never done anything like it before… but it’s just infinitely easier to get stuff in China.”
WARNING – explicit language in TikTok video below
Amie concluded by explaining she will continue using the NHS going forward, but for her present condition she feels she “hasn’t been listened to for so long”. “I don’t feel like people take me seriously because I’m young… anyway, I’m getting my visa on Friday (November 21) and then flying on Tuesday,” she said.
Wriring in response, one TikTok user expressed support of Amie’s trip, sharing: “Nine years of trying with the NHS and it took two HOURS in China to finally get my endometriosis diagnosis.”
Another revealed: “I had a root canal procedure in Shanghai and it was the most pleasant dental experience I have ever had. No pain or discomfort, beautiful facility, incredible staff.”
A Chinese resident told Amie: “Not crazy at all. Very clever and efficient way to do all the medical tests in China. I am a Chinese live in the UK. If I feel not right I would buy flight ticket straight away back to China rather than to see the GP here. Hope you get well soon and good luck.”
Meanwhile, an NHS medic also contributed, stating: “I’m an NHS doctor based in Manchester, and I completed my medical degree in China. I believe many aspects of healthcare practice in China are highly advanced. I’m confident you won’t regret it.
Amie also outlined her position in a caption accompanying her video: “China is infinitely more efficient when it comes to medical care than the NHS. Pricing is reasonable even for non-Chinese people who will pay fully out of pocket. Fingers crossed I can have some answers sooner than later!”
Irish police have failed to locate controversial schoolteacher Enoch Burke, three days after a Dublin court ordered his imprisonment.
The teacher has spent more than 500 days in prison in several spells since 2022, after he refused to stop showing up at the school that sacked him.
Wilson’s Hospital, a secondary school in County Westmeath, dismissed Burke for misconduct that arose from his refusal to address a transgender pupil by their new pronouns.
His former employers maintain he has been jailed for flouting court orders and continuing to trespass on private property.
‘Stalking the school’
On Tuesday, a High Court judge described Burke as an intruder engaged in “stalking the school” and a “potential danger” to pupils and teachers.
Mr Justice Brian Cregan said that Burke had carried out a sustained and deliberate attack on the authority of the civil courts and instructed Gardai [the Irish police service] to arrest him.
Garda members visited the Burke family home in Castlebar, County Mayo, at least twice on Wednesday but failed to find the teacher. Two videos documenting the visits were posted to Enoch Burke’s X account.
The videos showed the Gardai inquiring as to the teacher’s location, but they were unsuccessful in tracing him.
Image: Enoch Burke (R) was arrested in September 2024 after refusing to stay away from Wilson’s Hospital School
Enoch ‘entitled to religious belief’
In one of the videos, his father Sean Burke describes the Gardai’s presence as “shameful” and declares that “Enoch is entitled to his religious belief”. The Gardai then leave.
The Garda press office confirmed to Sky News on Friday morning that no arrest had yet been made.
In a statement, the service said: “An Garda Síochána has received a Court order relating to contempt of Court by an individual. An Garda Síochána does not comment on the detail of on-going operations.”
The activities of the Burke family have been generating headlines for years in Ireland.
Sean Burke was jailed for two months last year for assaulting a Garda in a courtroom.
The jailing of Enoch Burke has been embraced by right-wing commentators, in Ireland and the US, as evidence of the oppression of religious freedoms.
Elon Musk has shared posts containing misleading information about the case.
Sky News was present at Wilson’s Hospital School on a previous occasion when Burke was arrested by Irish police.
He told Sky News that he detested prison, which he described as “a terrible place”, but said that his rights were being breached.
Good morning. You’re reading the Up First newsletter. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox, and listen to the Up First podcast for all the news you need to start your day.
Today’s top stories
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s website now says a link between vaccines and autism cannot be ruled out. This is a reversal from the agency’s longstanding position that there is no link. This message aligns with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s opinion that vaccines are dangerous.
The CDC has made a dramatic about-face in the agency’s position on the relationship between vaccines and autism.
Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images
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Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images
🎧 CDC scientists say they didn’t change their website, and the Department of Health and Human Services wouldn’t divulge who ordered the adjustment to the wording, NPR’s Pien Huang tells Up First. There is no new scientific evidence to support the claim of a link between vaccines and autism. Huang notes that it is interesting that a headline on the CDC’s webpage still states that vaccines don’t cause autism. However, there is an asterisk next to this statement, which explains that the agency will not remove it due to an agreement with Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who provided a key confirmation vote for Kennedy to become the HHS secretary.
President Trump’s chief negotiator has presented a new 28-point plan for peace to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. International observers are encouraged that Trump has not given up on peace between Ukraine and Russia, but the proposal requires major territorial concessions from Ukraine, which the country has repeatedly rejected.
🎧 The Trump administration continues to suggest these concessions because the president is focused on getting a yes to his plan, says NPR’s Franco Ordoñez. Russian analyst Sam Charap notes that for Trump, the details don’t matter as much. He simply wants the fighting to come to an end, unlike the leaders of Russia and Ukraine, who are more focused on the details. Russia desires more strategic territory, while Ukraine has been adamant on security guarantees from Washington and its Western allies to ensure this type of invasion doesn’t happen again.
Trump will meet with New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani at the White House’s Oval Office today. This will mark the first time the two will meet face-to-face. Mamdani, a 34-year-old Democratic socialist, emerged as a national figure after his primary win earlier this year. The president has called Mamdani a “communist” on social media and repeatedly sought to paint him as too radical for the city that elected him mayor.
🎧 The meeting is a reminder of the shift Mamdani has to make as he steps into the new role, says NPR’s Elena Moore. The mayor-elect has a background as an activist, but today will be a test for him in balancing his policy priorities and maintaining political diplomacy. As a reminder, Moore says, the president vowed to cut New York’s federal funding if Mamdani won the election, so the meeting comes with real stakes.
State and local voting officials from both major political parties are actively preparing for the possibility of the Trump administration’s interference in the midterm elections, which are less than a year away. The president has consistently spread false claims about voting in the U.S. In the spring, he issued an executive order aimed at imposing significant changes to election systems. Although courts have largely blocked the order, he has hinted at the possibility of taking other executive action as well. The election community is concerned that Trump plans to have a heavy hand in their processes next year. Here are a few things voting officials are watching for.
Deep dive
An iceberg in Ilulissat, Greenland. Ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are melting rapidly, and that melt will accelerate as the Earth heats up.
Ryan Kellman/NPR
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Ryan Kellman/NPR
The planet has warmed about 1.3 degrees Celsius, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Communities are already experiencing more severe storms, flooding, and heatwaves. Scientists warn that when the planet heats up beyond 1.5 degrees, there could be massive, self-reinforcing changes that could have devastating impacts worldwide. These changes are sometimes referred to as climate tipping points. They can unfold over decades or centuries and may be partially reversible. But they all have enormous and lasting implications for life on Earth. Here are some of the most important and well-studied changes:
💧 Coral reefs have been dying around the globe. They are very sensitive to heat, and their loss would destabilize many countries. Numerous people rely on them for food, income and livelihoods. Marine life that can only be found on these reefs would be at risk of extinction.
💧 Ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica could melt and result in the rise of sea levels around the world.
💧 Permanently frozen ground in the Arctic is thawing, which can cause the land to sink, resulting in cracks in the foundations of buildings, buckling of roads and the kinking of pipelines.
Stay up-to-date with the latest news from the COP30, the United Nations climate meeting in Brazil, with this app-exclusive playlist of stories.
Weekend picks
Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande in Wicked: For Good.
Giles Keyte/Universal Pictures
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Giles Keyte/Universal Pictures
Check out what NPR is watching, reading and listening to this weekend:
🍿 Movies: Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo are back on the big screen this weekend in Wicked: For Good. The sequel features more songs, magic, and extravagant production design. But does it live up to the hype of the first film? Here’s NPR’s Aisha Harris’ verdict.
📺 TV: In The Beast In Me, a writer struggles to find her next book topic until a nefarious real estate tycoon moves in next door. He is suspected of murdering his first wife, though the incident was deemed a suicide. As they get acquainted, she seeks to uncover the truth.
📚 Books: Three new poetry collections explore identity, suffering, and hope, reflecting a form of shared experience and the inner life of a country in deep pain and uncertainty.
🎵 Music:Cabin In The Sky is the hip-hop group De La Soul’s first full-length release since founding member Trugoy the Dove died in 2023. It features 20 songs with guest appearances by Black Thought, Killer Mike, Q-Tip, and Nas.
🎮 Gaming: Kirby is back in the racing game Kirby Air Riders, which rivals Mario Kart World, NPR’s James Perkins Mastromarino says. The game has simple controls and deep customization.
🍗 Food: Thanksgiving is less than a week away, but there’s still time to prepare the perfect meal. Check out this recipe for a roast turkey and a guide to TikTok chef Tini’s viral mac and cheese.
❓ Quiz: I got a “decent” score of seven out of 10. I will do better next time. In the meantime, how about you take a crack at it?
3 things to know before you go
ByHeart is recalling all of its infant formula products after they were linked to a growing botulism outbreak in over a dozen states. They were available in cans and single-serve packets online and at major retailers.
Cheyanne Mumphrey/AP
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Cheyanne Mumphrey/AP
Health officials warn that the recalled ByHeart Whole Nutrition formula, linked to a botulism outbreak in over two dozen infants across 15 states, may still be on some store shelves.
A new study in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences quantifies how little plastic a marine animal has to ingest for it to be lethal. For an Atlantic puffin, it takes less than three sugar cubes’ worth of plastic.
New York Fed President John Williams said Friday there is room for “further adjustment in the near term” to interest rates – sparking traders to step up their bets on a quarter-point cut at the Fed’s December meeting.
Williams argued labor market weakness still poses a bigger threat than inflation, leaving the door open for a quarter-point cut, even as analysts were split on next month’s decision following mixed jobs data.
“I view monetary policy as being modestly restrictive, although somewhat less so than before our recent actions,” Williams said during a speech at a conference in Santiago, Chile.
New York Fed President John Williams said Friday there is room for “further adjustment” to interest rates. REUTERS
“Therefore, I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral, thereby maintaining the balance between the achievement of our two goals.”
The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 267 points, or 0.6%, after Williams’ comments and odds of a rate cut jumped to nearly 75% from 39% the previous day, according to CME FedWatch.
A day earlier on Thursday, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said that she’s approaching the December meeting “cautiously.”
“I’m still a little more worried about the labor market than I am about inflation, but I expect to learn a lot between now and the next meeting,” Paulson said during an event in Philadelphia.
“Each rate cut brings us closer to the level where policy flips from restraining activity a bit to the place where it is providing a boost,” she added. “Each rate cut raises the bar for the next cut.”
In the first significant batch of economic data since the government shutdown, employers added 119,000 jobs in September – far above expectations of 50,000, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday.
The unemployment rate, however, ticked up to 4.4% – the highest level since October 2021.
Global brokerages split on what the mixed bag of data means for next month’s interest-rate decision, though odds of a quarter-point jumped nearly 10% following the report on Thursday, according to CME FedWatch.
Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said Thursday that she’s approaching the December meeting “cautiously.” REUTERS
JPMorgan, Standard Chartered and Morgan Stanley withdrew their forecasts for a December interest-rate cut.
Analysts argued the better-than-expected jobs growth will sway officials to hold rates, especially since further labor market data will be delayed until December.
“The absence of November labor data may make it harder for doves to insist on the need for a cut,” Standard Chartered said.
Deutsche Bank, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and BNP Paribas stuck to their forecasts for a quarter-point cut, arguing the rise in unemployment supports the case for easing policy.
“A December cut is admittedly a close call, but we think the steady rise in the unemployment rate to 4.44% will be enough to encourage ‘open minded’ officials to support a cut,” Citi said.
Global brokerages split on what the mixed bag of jobs data means for next month’s interest-rate decision. Getty Images
Nomura and BofA Global Research kept their forecasts for no rate cut in December.
Still, the employment update was largely backward-looking, which some analysts claimed made it unlikely to sway Fed officials one way or another since it doesn’t paint a picture of current market conditions.
About 100,000 federal workers went off payrolls in October, likely to cause a shock to jobs data – but that month’s data is slated for a partial and delayed release in December, according to the White House.
Fed officials have been divided on whether policy is still restrictive, meaning there is room to lower rates without spiking inflation, or whether it’s not restrictive, which would make further cuts risky.
“My assessment is that the downside risks to employment have increased as the labor market has cooled, while the upside risks to inflation have lessened somewhat,” Williams said Friday.
Job growth came in better than expected in September, but the unemployment rate ticked up. AP
“Underlying inflation continues to trend downward, absent any evidence of second-round effects emanating from tariffs.”
Like many other central bankers, Williams also noted that progress on inflation “has stalled” due to President Trump’s tariffs. He said long-term expectations still appear on track, though.
While the unemployment rate is “in the neighborhood” of full employment, most job gains have been in the healthcare and social assistance sectors, Paulson said Thursday.
“Historically, when job gains are concentrated in acyclical sectors like healthcare, that is a precursor to a slowdown,” she added.
She nodded to resilient consumer spending, but noted that the trend is divided by income – with higher-income households continuing to spend while lower-income consumers pull back.
“Candy sales over Halloween provide another example of how stretched some families are. Smaller bags of candy – with fewer items – sold better than larger bags that offered greater value per unit,” Paulson said. “And, at the same time, demand for higher-end chocolate is very strong.”
