Following the money: UFC 311 betting line movements tracker | Makhachev vs. Moicano

UFC 311 goes down this weekend (Sat., Jan. 18, 2025) inside Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event was supposed to feature Islam Makhachev risking his Lightweight title in a showdown with Arman Tsarukyan, which is a rematch from a fight in 2019. However, Tsarukyan sensationally pulled out of the fight on just hours before weighing in (full details here). UFC responded swiftly, promoting Renato Moicano — who was originally booked to battle Beneil Dariush — to UFC 311’s PPV main event.

And he’s ready to “shock the world!”

The co-main event seems to have remained intact, though. That has Bantamweight champion, Merab Dvalishvili, attempting to defend his belt for the first time. His opponent is the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov.

Also on the main card is Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill, Serghei Spivac vs. Jailton Almeida and Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder.

The picks of the “Prelims” fights include Grant Dawson vs. Diego Ferreira and Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos.

I’ve been watching the lines (see them here) for all the fights on UFC 311 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below you’ll find all the line movement info since the odds were released (per Best Fight Odds).

UFC 311 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker

Islam Makhachev (-950) vs. Renato Moicano (+550)

With this fight just being made today, there’s not been enough time for the lines to move. What we have now is Makhachev as a monster betting favorite against his short-notice replacement (Moicano).

Prior to this, Makhachev was a decent-sized favorite against Tsarukyan. And Tsarukyan’s line was growing, with public money favoring the champ.

Tsarukyan had opened as a +180 underdog, but that had risen over 24 percent to +270 on Friday.

I accept public money will continue to hammer Makhachev and his odds to beat Moicano will shrink by fight time, with Moicano’s raising considerably.

Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC

Merab Dvalishvili (+226 +25.8 percent) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (-282 -17.4 percent)

The betting public are not that keen on Dvalishvili. When he fought Sean O’Malley, he opened as a +142 favorite, but his line grew to make him a +240 underdog (nice for those who liked him and held off on making a bet until just before the fight). This time around the betting public have pushed Dvalishvili from a +142 underdog to a +226 dog!

That’s a lot of doubt in the champion who wiped the floor with O’Malley in The Sphere.

Umar Nurmagomedov has been backed by the public in every fight he’s had in UFC. Against Cory Sandhagen, his line opened at -278 and closed at -340.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Jiri Prochazka (+113 +20.7 percent) vs. Jamahal Hill (-136 -30.1 percent)

There’s been lots of interesting movement on this fight. Jamahal Hill opened at +125 and Jiri Prochazka opened at -145. These odds have more or less flipped, with Hill now the slight favorite.

On Dec. 20, 2024, there was some interesting activity, too. On that day Hill’s line spiked to +100 and Prochazka’s fell to -145. The lines began to move in opposite directions soon after, giving us what we have now.

This was only the third time Hill had opened as an underdog in his UFC career. He was +130 against Alex Pereira and that line barely moved. Back in 2021, he opened as +185 against Jim Crute, whom he beat via technical knockout.

Photo by Al Powers/Zuffa LLC

Jailton Almeida (-470 -18.4 percent) vs. Serghei Spivac (+348 +35.3 percent)

Serghei Spivac opened as +190 underdog, but the public believes his chances of beating Jailton Almeida are far smaller than that. Despite coming off a first round submission win over Marcin Tybura, Spivac’s odds have ballooned up past +340. Almeida’s line is dropping steadily, making him one of the biggest favorite on the card.

Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC

Kevin Holland (+102 +17 percent) vs. Reinier de Ridder (-124 -24 percent)

Holland opened as a -148 favorite, with de Ridder as a +124 slight underdog. But those numbers have flipped with De Ridder now the slight favorite in what is essentially a pick ‘em.

Recency bias might be a factor here. The last thing the public saw of De Ridder was his submission over Gerald Meerschaert. Holland’s last fight ended with him getting injured underneath Roman Dolidze.

UFC 311 Late ‘Prelims’ Line Movement

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Payton Talbott (-1178 -7.6 percent) vs. Raoni Barcelos (+730 +33.3 percent)

Barcelos open at +440, but that has soared up to +730. We saw this with Talbott’s last opponent, too (Yanis Ghemmouri). His line flew. Then he got starched in the first exchange of the fight. Vegas, and the public, thinks a similar fate is awaiting for Barcelos.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Bogdan Guskov (-356 -4.1 percent) vs. Billy Elekana (+275 +13.3 percent)

Elekana is coming in on short notice for Johnny Walker. These lines haven’t been out long, but the public are fading the PFL vet here in favor of the more established UFC talent.

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Grant Dawson (-250 +4.6 percent) vs. Diego Ferreira (+200 -13.8 percent)

Ferreira got the win over Mateusz Rebecki last time out as a big underdog. He’s a moderate underdog here, with the public betting him down from his original +240 line. It will be Ferreira’s 40th birthday on fight night. Maybe some folks think he will be gifted a big win. Dawson, who has looked very good since his quick loss to King Green, opened as a -298 favorite.

UFC 311 Early‘Prelims’ Line Movement

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Zachary Reese (+160) vs. Azamat Bekoev (-194 -0.5 percent)

Reese was supposed to fight Sedriques Dumas. He was a comfortable favorite in that bout versus a fellow striker. His short notice opponent is a wrestle-grinder, though. Bekoev comes in as the favorite and his line is trending down.

Photo by Al Powers/Zuffa LLC

Karol Rosa (-254 -14 percent) vs. Ailin Perez (+203 +20.1 percent)

Perez opened at +142, but the public thinks she might have her hands full with Rosa. Perez’s line has steadily risen, making her a pretty big underdog to the pressure striker. The public were right in Perez’s last two fights, betting her line down (as a favorite) against Darya Zheleznyakova and Joselyne Edwards.

Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

Rinya Nakamura (-591 -10.4 percent) vs. Muin Gafurov (+424 +28.4 percent)

Nakamura — a stud wrestler with knockout power — is one of the biggest favorites on the card. Gafarov, who isn’t exceptional at anything, has seen his line steadily rise since Dec. 20, 2024. Nakamura won his last fight as a -1250 favorite, having opened at -700.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Ricky Turcios (+204 -11.8 percent) s. Bernardo Sopaj (-257 +3.7 percent)

This is a little odd.

These two were supposed to fight in Nov. 2024. When that fight was initially booked, Turcios was the +225 underdog and that rose to +285. The fight was then scrapped on weigh-in day.

This time around, Turcios opened at +240 and the public are supporting him, bringing his line down to +204.

Sopaj’s line has moved in the opposite direction, too. He was a -375 favorite back in Nov. 2024.

Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Tagir Ulanbekov (-330 -10.2 percent) vs. Clayton Carpenter (+253 +17.8 percent)

The undefeated Carpenter opened at +190, but that has risen to over +250. There’s a lot of public faith in Ulanbekov, it seems, despite him being out of action for more than one year.

Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC

UFC 311 Biggest Line Movements

TLDR: Here are the biggest line movements at UFC 311:

• Serghei Spivac: From +190 underdog to +348 underdog (+36.3 percent) (A)
• Raoni Barcelos: From +440 underdog to +709 underdog (+33.3 percent) (A)
• Jamahal Hill: From +125 underdog to +135 favorite (-30.1 percent) (B)
• Muin Gafarov: From +275 underdog to +424 underdog (+28.4 percent) (A)
• Merab Dvalishvili: From +142 underdog to +225 underdog (+25.8 percent) (A)

Since I’ve been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.

A: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 2-23.*

B: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 8-6.

C: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 1-4.

D: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 3-4.

E: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have shortened are 2-1.

*The only winners in this group was Jesus Aguilar who submitted UFC debutante Stewart Nicoll at UFC 305 and Mateusz Rebecki who beat Myktybek Orolbai at UFC 308.

Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC

UFC 311 Best Underdogs Bets

There’s a few interesting underdogs on this card. Chief among them is our Bantamweight champion, Dvalishvili, who you can get at +230. That’s interesting to me, since I think Dvalishvili is more battle-tested than Nurmagomedov and that this will be a super close fight either way.

I also like Holland to beat de Ridder, based on the strength of his boxing (and how much de Ridder got hit in his UFC debut). I also like Carpenter in the curtain jerker. Ulanbekov has fought once in two years and been out of action for around 12 months. I’ll take Carpenter (and ring rust) at +265.

Enough about me, though, which of these underdogs do you like the most?

LIVE! Watch UFC 311 PPV On ESPN+ Here!

LIGHTWEIGHT REMATCH! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) kicks off its 2025 pay-per-view (PPV) schedule on Sat., Jan. 18, with its seemingly-unstoppable lightweight champion, Islam Makhachev, defending his 155-pound crown against late replacement, Renato Moicano, in the five-round main event. In UFC 311’s championship co-headliner from inside Intuit Dome in Inglewood (Los Angeles), Calif., undefeated 135-pound contender, Umar Nurmagomedov, challenges newly-minted bantamweight titleholder, Merab Dvalishvili, for the undisputed crown. UFC 311 will also feature the exciting returns of former light heavyweight champions Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill, as well as the pivotal middleweight showdown between Kevin Holland and Reinier De Ridder, and so much more! UFC 311’s start time is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET (Preliminary card) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV main card).

Don’t miss a single second of EPIC face-punching action!

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 311 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+/ESPNEWS “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 311: “Makhachev vs. Moicano” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.