UFC Vegas 102 main card odds, breakdowns and predictions | X-Factor

This weekend (Sat., Feb. 15, 2025), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns home to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 102. This event might as well be marketed as the last stand of Jared Cannonier, who hopes to halt the bleeding after consecutive losses to Nassourdine Imavov and Caio Borralho. Credit to the former title challenger, who has headlined in his last five appearances and eight times total. Elsewhere on the card, Featherweight boxing ace Calvin Kattar similarly looks to rebound opposite resurgent talent Youssef Zalal. It’s a perfectly standard “Fight Night” event otherwise, the usual mix of veterans trying to break through and Contenders Series veterans trying to make a name.

Let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the co-main event:

Middleweight: Edmen Shahbazyan (-310) vs. Dylan Budka (+250)

Best Win for Shahbazyan? Brad Tavares For Budka? Chad Hanekom
Current Streak: Shabazyan lost his last bout, while Budka has lost two straight
X-Factor: Shahbazyan is known to implode
How these two match up: How far “Golden Boy” has fallen …

Back in the pre-2020 days of yore, Shahbazyan was the hottest up-and-comer at 185-pounds, a 22-year-old talent who kept running through his opposition. A more elite class of opposition exposed weaknesses in his defensive wrestling and conditioning to stall his rise, and since then, even fairly average Middleweights have managed to give him real trouble.

Speaking of average … Budka is one of many Contenders Series products who seems unlikely to earn an extension to his contract. The 25-year-old “Mindless Hulk” has struggled inside the Octagon, getting thoroughly outwrestled and then knocked out in his pair of UFC bouts.

By all rights, this should be an easy bounce back fight for Shahbazyan after his “GM3” defeat. Budka may have scored a couple takedowns on Cesar Almeida, but he fatigued himself in the process and still couldn’t really get much going on the canvas. Shahbazyan is the far sharper striker and should have a significant technical edge on the canvas too.

Unless he’s mentally shattered, he should be back in the win column by Sunday morning.

Prediction: Shahbazyan via knockout

Photo by Alexandre Loureiro/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Lightweight: Ismael Bonfim (-162) vs. Nazim Sadykhov (+136)

Best Win for Bonfim? Terrance McKinney For Sadykhov? Terrance McKinney
Current Streak: Bonfim won his last bout, while Sadykhov enters off a draw
X-Factor: Bonfim has a lot more high-level experience
How these two match up: This is a quality Lightweight scrap.

Okay, Bonfim got steamrolled by Benoit Saint Denis — it happens, and that’s his only defeat in the last decade! Outside of that loss, the Brazilian prospect has proven to have a well-rounded game with good finishing instincts everywhere, complimented by a lot of fights against quality opponents even prior to his UFC pickup. Sadykhov has a lot less seasoning, but he’s clearly a gifted young fighter as well. A strong wrestler with very fluid hands, Sadykhov is one of the most recent prospects to rise through the Serra-Longo ranks.

The question here is whether or not Sadykhov has enough of an athleticism edge to copy Saint Denis’ success. Can he run over Bonfim either on the feet or on the canvas? The former seems more likely, as Sadykhov hasn’t yet demonstrated the Frenchman’s brutal top game to accompany his strong takedowns.

I’m not convinced the speed and power gap is quite that wide, however, seeing as Sadykhov struggled to really pull ahead of Slava Borshchev in his last bout. He ended up in a technical kickboxing match regardless of his physical gifts, and it cost him.

Bonfim outworks him should that early finish fail to materialize.

Prediction: Bonfim via decision

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Middleweight: Rodolfo Vieira (-218) vs. Andre Petroski (+180)

Best Win for Vieira? Armen Petrosyan For Petroski? Gerald Meerschaert
Current Streak: Both men have won two in a row
X-Factor: Will these grappler vs. wrestler battle end as a kickboxing match?
How these two match up: Read above, this is classic BJJ vs. collegiate wrestling with a bit of gassed out Middleweight flair.

Vieira has actually done an admirable job of learning from previous errors. The jiu-jitsu legend has shored up his boxing by a considerable degree, developed his power double leg further, and can now push a reasonable pace for 15 minutes. At 35 years old, is there still time for him to break into the rankings and put together some kind of run?

Petroski is just a couple years younger than his foe and must learn some of those lessons himself. The former UNC Chapel Hill wrestler often fights like a bad out of hell, which has resulted in some quick finishes. However, it’s also cost him down the stretch, though perhaps his recent pair of decision wins is a showcase of maturity.

Eh.

Petroski’s last two bouts saw him easily wrestle foes who were generalists. Vieira is considerably more threatening that Budka or Josh Fremd, meaning he won’t just be able to wrestle his way out of danger when things get hairy. More likely, Vieira times that double at some point, and wrestlers hate being put on their back.

Prediction: Vieira via submission

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Featherweight: Jose Delgado (-230) vs. Connor Matthews (+190)

Best Win for Delgado? Ernie Juarez For Matthews? Jair Farias
Current Streak: Delgado debuts having won five straight, while Matthews lost his own UFC debut last March
X-Factor: Both men have less than 10 pro fights
How these two match up: A pair of Contenders Series products will collide.

Delgado, age 26, is on an impressive streak, having finished five straight opponents leading into this match up. Big for the division, Delgado has a well-rounded and violent game most notable for his activity. Matthews is six years older and more of a specialist. Five of his seven victories come via submission, though he proved in his debut against Buzukja that he’s not helpless on his feet either.

Matthews’ defense failed him in his debut, and it’s still a concern here. Despite dropping weight classes, he’s still facing a three inch height and reach disadvantage. Worse still, Delgado is the more fluid striker with better power in his hands. It feels like Matthews has to grind his opponent down with wrestling, otherwise he’s going to get beat up.

Can he do it? It’s possible, as Delgado is still quite unproven. The MMA Lab product seems to have legitimate ground skills of his own, however, and it’s generally tough to go against the younger, more athletic fighter when neither has really shown what they can do at the UFC level.

Prediction: Delgado via knockout