Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 103 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., March 1, 2025) on ESPN+ from inside APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC Vegas 103 features a flyweight main event between Top 10 title contenders Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev, a five-round showdown with possible title implications for late 2025 and beyond.
Before we dive into the main and co-main events, which include the middleweight showdown between Julian Marquez and Cody Brundage, check out Andrew Richardson’s “X-Factor” breakdown for the rest of the UFC Vegas 103 main card by clicking here. Get all the latest “Kape vs. Almabayev” odds and betting props courtesy of FanDuel right here. For UFC Vegas 103 live results for this weekend’s “Sin City” fight card click here.
125 lbs.: Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev
Manel “Starboy” Kape
Record: 20-7 | Age: 31 | Betting line: -220
Wins: 12 KO/TKO, 5 SUB, 3 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 5 DEC
Height: 5’5” | Reach: 68” | Stance: Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.05 | Striking accuracy: 56%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.15 | Striking Defense: 58%
Takedown Average: 0.47 (33% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 77%
Current Ranking: No. 6 | Last fight: Technical knockout win over Bruno Silva
Asu “Zulfikhar” Almabayev
Record: 21-2 | Age: 31 | Betting line: +180
Wins: 3 KO/TKO, 9 SUB, 9 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5’4“ | Reach: 65” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.11 | Striking accuracy: 56%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 1.02 | Striking Defense: 59%
Takedown Average: 5.08 (50% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 50%
Current Ranking: No. 8 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Matheus Nicolau
Manel Kape finds himself in the position of many top contenders before him, apparently not worthy of a division title shot for whatever reason. Magomed Ankalaev, Belal Muhammad, and Leon Edwards are some of the more recent examples of combatants who were not considered box office material, though I would argue that Kape’s repeated failures to make the 125-pound limit — and already losing to flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja at UFC St. Petersburg — may be as much to blame as anything else.
“Starboy” got off to a rocky start in his UFC career, falling to 0-2 after crossing over from RIZIN but has since compiled a 5-1 record with three knockouts, including his destruction of Bruno Silva at UFC Tampa last December. His lone defeat during that span came against undefeated flyweight Muhammad Mokaev, who will no longer prove to be a championship hurdle after drawing his walking papers from the head cheese himself. Kape is not currently ranked in the division Top 5 but Brandon Royval and Brandon Moreno already lost to the flyweight champion while Amir Albazi and Tatsuro Taira are both coming off losses. A “Starboy” victory at UFC Vegas 103 may be the final rung in the contendership ladder.
“Brandon pulled out. Winning against Brandon Royval, I would’ve been No. 1 in the ranking. It’s not my fault. I’m here doing my job,” Kape said during the UFC Vegas 103 media day (watch it here). “And again, Deiveson Figueiredo pulled out, Alex Perez pulled out, Kai Kara-France pulled out, all these fighters been pulling out. I’ve been doing my work. So after Asu, 100 percent I’m getting my title shot. I was supposed to fight Brandon Royval, he’s a taller guy. I was expecting to work him a lot on the body, the body shots, so I don’t have to reach too much his head. Asu is more short guy, so his head is going to be there and is a target. His chin is going to be there. His nose is going to be there, so I believe there’s going to be bad blood. His face is going to be a bunch of blood on Saturday night. He’s short, and he’s a good target for myself.”
Asu Almabayev is a relatively new addition to the still-growing flyweight roster but certainly no spring chicken when it comes to time served in the MMA big house. Prior to joining UFC, Almabayev tore through the ranks of M-1 Global and Brave Combat Federation. That trend continued inside the Octagon and “Zulfikhar” — which Google translated to “Sword of Ali” (pretty cool nickname) — is a perfect 4-0, having recently defeated Matheus Nicolau at UFC Vegas 99, a performance that landed him at No. 8 in the flyweight rankings.
Whether or not you think Almabayev is capable of defeating Kape may depend on your opinion of his competition thus far in UFC; which in my eyes, has been nothing special. That said, he remains one of the division’s most punishing wrestlers, averaging just over five takedowns per fight. It’s worth noting that “Starboy” — despite his high percentage in takedown defense — was blanked on the mats in decision losses to both Mokaev and Nicolau. Expect Almabayev to follow that blueprint tomorrow night in “Sin City” because Kape has the power to end it with one punch.
“You know when it comes to the title fights, it’s like I’m asking myself, ‘Why don’t I get this chance to fight for the title? Why isn’t it my turn?’ Because like you said, there was a debut guy that was fighting for a title,” Almabayev said during the UFC Vegas 103 media day (watch it here). “There were guys in the top 10 that were fighting for it. There were all these different fighters that got a chance and all those fighters who got a chance, you see they lost. They got losses. I’m 4-0 in the UFC. I’m ready. I’m excited. If I get this chance to fight, I think it should be me and nobody else.”
If this was a three-round affair, I would probably lean toward Almabayev for the dump-and-hump victory. I just find it hard to believe that “Zulfikhar” will be able to maintain that pace for 25 minutes while also avoiding the incoming fire from his heavy-handed foe. Look for Almabayev to start strong only to fade midway through the fight, where Kape finally finds his sea legs and drowns his opponent with a fiery blitzkrieg.
Prediction: Kape def. Almabayev by technical knockout
185 lbs.: Cody Brundage vs. Julian Marquez
Cody Brundage
Record: 10-6 | Age: 30 | Betting line: +115
Wins: 5 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 1 DEC, 1 DQ | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 6’0“ | Reach: 72” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 1.62 | Striking accuracy: 54%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.63 | Striking Defense: 41%
Takedown Average: 2.31 (50% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 68%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: No Contest against Abdul Razak Alhassan
Julian “Cuban Missile Crisis” Marquez
Record: 9-5 | Age: 34 | Betting line: -135
Wins: 6 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 0 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 6’2“ | Reach: 72” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.85 | Striking accuracy: 45%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 5.06 | Striking Defense: 50%
Takedown Average: 0.00 (0% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 53%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Technical knockout loss to Zachary Reese
Cody Brundage returns to action after a 2024 he’d probably like to forget. At UFC 300, Brundage was handpicked to serve as the latest stepping stone in the comically slow build of middleweight phenom Bo Nickal, then returned at UFC Denver just a few months later, where he was flattened by elbows from Razak Al Hassan early in the opening frame. The bout was ruled a “No Contest” and Brundage hasn’t seen the win column since late 2023. Honestly, there are not a lot of great things I can say about Brundage, who was creamed on Dana White’s “Contender Series” but called back to plug a hole in the UFC 266 fight card. His record thus far inside the Octagon is 4-5 and one of those victories came by way of disqualification. Brundage is a good offensive wrestler and has power, so it will be interesting to see if he can exploit his opponent’s spotty takedown defense.
“We’re not best friends, but we’re friendly,” Brundage said during the UFC Vegas 103 media day (watch it here). “I don’t wish anything bad upon Julian. We’re both in a spot where you can’t say no. I’m on the last fight of my contract, he’s on a three-fight losing streak, so when the UFC calls, you’ve got to say yes. I don’t know how it’s going to go. I’ve never fought someone that I trained with. I would imagine that he’s comfortable with knowing what I’m going to do and I’m comfortable knowing what he’s going to do, and we’ll see how it plays out in the fight. We trained together for an extended period of time. We both know what we bring to the table, and I think it’ll be a good fight.”
Unlike Brundage, Julian Marquez was able to win his “Contender Series” fight and looked like he was on his way to becoming a major player in UFC after jumping out to a 3-1 start, even with a rare latissimus dorsi injury that kept him sidelined for over two years. Unfortunately, it’s all been downhill since getting decapitated by Gregory Rodrigues and “The Cuban Missile Crisis” is now the loser of three straight — with all three losses coming by way of knockout. To make matters worse, Marquez turns 35 in just a few weeks and could be in danger of being remembered for nothing but his Miley Cyrus fumble from early 2021. On the plus side, Marquez is a heavy-handed striker with sneaky submissions, so Brundage can’t just barrel in with a reckless takedown or he may get slept with a front choke (a lesson Darren Stewart learned at UFC on FOX 26 back in late 2017).
“When we first got it I was sitting there like, ‘Woah we used to train together man, what are we doing? We don’t fight teammates.’ Then it got there that he accepted the fight and I was like okay, that’s it, we’re here to battle,” Marquez said during the UFC Vegas 103 media day (watch it here). “This is where we are. This is the business we’re in. Has nothing to do with the friendship that we have, has nothing to do there. We both have to fight for our job. So when I got that I was like, ‘Hell yeah, let’s go, got another fight.’ I don’t feel any betrayal at all. The opportunity comes to his door, he has to make the judgement, and then our manager comes to talk to us. That’s it. It’s the business. He owes no explanation. I understand.”
Marquez is the more well-rounded fighter but he’s looked dreadful in his last few fights. The “Robocop” knockout is forgivable but getting smoked by Marc-Andre Barriault — who sports a losing record in UFC — is not. I think Brundage plays it safe, avoids a couple of big shots, and wrestles his way to a close decision win.
Prediction: Brundage def. Marquez by decision
Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 103 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 103 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ preliminary card bouts at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 103 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here. For the updated and finalized “Kape vs. Almabayev” fight card and ESPN+ lineup click here.
This story originally appeared on MMA Mania
