Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC Mexico City

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Flyweight contenders Brandon Moreno vs. Steve Erceg will clash TONIGHT (Sat., March 29, 2025) inside CDMX Arena in Mexico City, Mexico at UFC Mexico City.

Moreno’s great issue in recent years has been inconsistency. He’s too damn skilled to be relying on sloppy overhands against a top contender like Brandon Royval … and yet he still nearly defeated “Raw Dog” despite the awful gameplan. That loss inspired the former champion to take a few months off, and the reset paid dividends in the form of a masterful shutout over Amir Albazi in his most recent bout.

For Erceg, the road remains extremely difficult. The Australian talent was rushed into a title shot after just three UFC wins versus Alexandre Pantoja and nearly upset the Brazilian, which was a great display of his talent. Unfortunately, getting knocked out in a round immediately afterward by Kai Kara-France hurt his position (see that here) … or at least should have. Instead of being given a step back, the 29-year-old boxer is taking on an even tougher test.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Moreno vs. Erceg Betting Odds

• Brandon Moreno victory: -238
• Brandon Moreno via TKO/KO/DQ: +350
• Brandon Moreno via submission: +800
• Brandon Moreno via decision: +110
• Steve Erceg victory: +195
• Steve Erceg via TKO/KO/DQ: +1400
• Steve Erceg via submission: +1800
• Steve Erceg via decision: +275
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

How Moreno Wins

Moreno is a multiple-time Flyweight champion for a reason. He started his career as a submission fighter who brawls, but he’s developed to be elite in every aspect of the game. In particular, his boxing has become a great strength, and Moreno can still scramble on the floor with the best of ‘em.

The most standout weapon in this entire match up is Moreno’s jab, clearly the best in the division. When Moreno is able to find his range and get that lead hand humming, the rest of his combinations and counters unfurl beautiful. His kicks land, his takedowns are better timed — it all just works!

Therefore, the early priority is to pump out the jab in numbers and feint it actively. Generally, I’d like to see Moreno looking for takedowns as well. He’s the superior scrambler with the more proven cardio, so if he can catch a kick or time his shot under a right hand, he’s more likely to take advantage with a submission or simply steal the round.

Photo by Alexandre Loureiro/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

How Erceg Wins

Erceg is a very well-rounded talent himself, which explains why he was able to keep up with Pantoja so well. He’s best known for his Muay Thai and boxing, but Erceg also wrestled competitively at a high level (for Australia) and holds a black belt in jiu-jitsu. Winning won’t be easy, but Erceg can definitely compete with Moreno anywhere.

As explained above, the jab is absolutely key to Moreno’s game. It stands to reason, then, that taking away his jab should be a huge goal for Erceg. Without the jab, Moreno is more prone to relying on wild swings and that brawler mentality, which has never quite gone away despite his technical development.

How to take away the jab? Erceg fights best on the front foot, so I’d like to see him moving forward with his hands high, ready to parry and counter back. A great possible answer is the Justin Gaethje-style, catch-and-return low kick from the World Series of Fighting (WSOF) days of old. Back then, Gaethje commonly let his opponents jab him on the forehead at the cost of an absolutely ripping calf kick, a weapon that has worked well against Moreno in the past.

Actively working to take away Moreno’s jab will put Erceg in the driver’s seat, allowing him to get reads and build his own combos more effectively.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Moreno vs. Erceg Prediction

Erceg is a great fighter, but on paper, Moreno holds a small edge in every facet of the game. He’s more accustomed to five-round battles versus elite fighters and is simply a small notch sharper. If Moreno is on his game — certainly not a guarantee — Erceg is going to have to rely on big moments like knockdowns or takedowns to sway the judges to his corner.

Moreno’s chin is legendary and he’s nearly impossible to hold down, so that’s a real tall ask.

Prediction: Moreno via decision

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Mexico City card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 7 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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