Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze 2: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC Vegas 104

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight veterans Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze will square off a second time TONIGHT (Sat., March 15, 2025) inside UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, for UFC Vegas 104.

Look, I cannot pretend to understand why this match up was made a second time. The first fight was thoroughly okay, clearly won by Vettori, and happened less than two years ago. Still, at least the respective positions of both men have changed heading into the rematch. Vettori is now the one who needs to prove himself coming off injury and a record-setting ass-kicking at the hands of Jared Cannonier. Dolidze, conversely, has won two straight and built a small bit of momentum back up, though it’s really now-or-never for the 36-year-old contender.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 Betting Odds

• Marvin Vettori victory: -162
• Marvin Vettori via TKO/KO/DQ: +1100
• Marvin Vettori via submission: +900
• Marvin Vettori via decision: +100
• Roman Dolidze victory: +136
• Roman Dolidze via TKO/KO/DQ: +350
• Roman Dolidze via submission: +1000
• Roman Dolidze via decision: +350
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

How Vettori Wins

We’ve seen several different stages of Marvin Vettori over the years. For a little while, the Italian prospect was wrestling and submitting his opposition. Then, he was bruising forward behind crisp 1-2s. More recently, he’s been trying to play the outside striking game to mixed results.

At 31 years of age, it’s time to put it all together.

The first Dolidze fight was the debut of Thailand-trained range striker Vettori. It worked well enough because Dolidze’s footwork is awful, but Vettori won without really taking over. In this rematch with an older opponent, the goal should be to put more damage on Dolidze and really make a statement.

There’s nothing about Dolidze’s game that suggests Vettori — who has an iron jaw and good power in his left — can’t press him in return. He can still try to win the outside striking, but Vettori should take more initiative in backing Dolidze to the fence and sending a hard left hand knifing through the middle of his wide swings.

Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

How Dolidze Wins

Dolidze has one of the weirdest games in MMA. His stand up is a little janky, but power, aggression, and toughness keep it formidable. On the mat, he’s clearly a masterful bottom grappler, but his wrestling isn’t consistent enough to drag high-level foes to the floor.

In the first bout, Dolidze was able to hurt Vettori a bit with his right hand and generally threaten him in exchanges. The problem was that he could never force Vettori to engage with him on his terms, so Vettori was able to land quick counter punches and low kicks before skirting away from the big swings.

Vettori is not Israel Adesanya. His ring craft is not so complicated. Even Dolidze puts just a bit more focus on cutting the cage and herding Vettori into shots, he’s going to land a lot more. This doesn’t even necessarily mean he has to fix his footwork. Just a shift in shot selection — using kicks or body hooks to block exits and keep Vettori near the cage — will allow him to force exchanges and land heavier shots.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Vettori vs. Dolidze Prediction

Seeing as the first fight was so recent, I’m not sure what changed here. The only possible argument is that Cannonier battered Vettori so badly that he’ll never be the same again, which is certainly possible. Simultaneously, the Italian is still a young fighter and took an appropriate amount of time to recover.

Has Dolidze improved in the three fights since? He still appears to be the same fighter, a straightforward bruiser with incredibly good BJJ and no way to consistently make use of it. Vettori should still be the sharper kickboxer, and perhaps he’s even improved his skills in all that time away.

I expect history to repeat.

Prediction: Vettori via decision (+100)

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 104 card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 7 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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