UFC London odds: Best betting props, parlays and picks | Edwards vs. Brady

UFC London happens this weekend (Sat., March 22, 2025) inside O2 Arena in London, England. The ESPN+-streamed main event features former Welterweight champion, Leon Edwards, in his first appearance since a sleepy defeat to Belal Muhammad. Edwards will lock horns with Sean Brady, whose only professional loss is that man, too (Muhammad).

The co-main event, Jan Blachowicz vs. Carlos Ulberg, will have title implications at 205 pounds. The winner here might soon challenge newly-crowned Light Heavyweight roost-ruler, Magomed Ankalaev, (who fought Blachowicz to a bore draw a few years ago).

UFC London’s main card also features Gunnar Nelson vs. Kevin Holland, Molly McCann vs. Alexia Thainara, Jordan Vucenic vs. Chris Duncan and Nathanial Wood vs. Morgan Charriere.

The “Prelims” undercard, meanwhile, are headlined by Jai Herbert vs. Chris Padilla, those wily vets might put on a good show. The “Prelims” also have hot prospect Lone’er Kavanagh taking on Felipe dos Santos and Heavyweight former headliner Marcin Tybura against Mick Parkin.

Let’s checkout the money lines on “Edwards vs. Brady” and all the other bouts on the card …

UFC London Main Card Money Line Odds

Leon Edwards (+140) vs. Sean Brady (-166)

Edwards looked terrible in his last fight. Muhammad hurt him early with an uppercut and then bullied him on route to a unanimous decision. It’s hard to know how much of that performance was down to Muhammad’s brilliance and how much was due to the weirdness around the fight time, with these two going at it at around 6 a.m. local time (a shift which affected the local Edwards more than the travelling Muhammad).

Prior to that loss Edwards cruised past Colby Covington. And before that he took a majority decision over Kamaru Usman, whom he famously obliterated with a head kick to win the title (see that all-time highlight here).

Meanwhile, Brady’s rise was stunted due to a technical knockout loss to the aforementioned Muhammad in 2022 (see it here). That was his first (and only) professional loss. Since then, he’s submitted Kelvin Gastelum (see it here) and won a very lopsided decision over Gilbert Burns.

This is a hard fight to pick because it’s hard to figure out exactly the reason(s) Edwards looked so bad last time out.

Was it just a fabled “off night?” Was it a sign of decline (Edwards is 33 years and 26 fights old)? Or, was Muhammad a nightmare match-up for him?

I find it hard to believe that the match-up with Muhammad was the cause. Edwards had the beating of him in their first fight before an eye poke ruined the bout. And Edwards has turned away better wrestlers than Muhammad in the past. Muhammad did fight the fight of his life that night and he has looked very good since adopting the Dagestan style. However, I think Edwards still has plenty of chances to win that match-up should it happen again.

Decline? 33 isn’t that old. Especially for someone as physically fit as Edwards. He’s also never lost by (technical) knockout (though he’s been hit hard before, versus Muhammad and Nate Diaz).

So, I’m leaning toward believing that was an off-night for the Brit. Even so, I still think he has his hands full with Brady. And Vegas agrees.

Brady isn’t a Muhammad clone, but his style is about as close to Muhammad’s as you can find in the Welterweight division. He bullied Burns against the fence in his last fight and racked up a bunch of takedowns in the later rounds. Brady also did a lot of damage on the feet, landing hard combos and leg kicks.

I think his activity may cause Edwards some problems. Brady lands 4.09 significant strikes a minute and 3.49 takedowns per 15 minutes. That striking stat is above average. The takedowns are way above average. You put those together and it’s pretty special. Those two stats represent a level of activity and versatility that is rarely matched in the division.

The only person who is close to that is … Muhammad (4.39 significant strikes/minute, 2.28 takedowns/15 minutes).

Edwards is a patient fighter who is capable of catching opponents with something special off his back foot. However, I don’t think he can afford to play a waiting game against Brady. If he does, he might get clocked with a hard punch or get his leg chewed up with kicks. Then he’d be unable to grow into the fight and takeover in the later rounds.

The moneyline on Brady isn’t atrocious, so I’m tempted by that. The point spread has Brady -5.5 at +120. I don’t like that bet, because I think Edwards is still very tough and that we are heading to a decision. And if the last fight was just an off night, then he might take rounds off Brady or possibly even get a narrow decision win.

The round total is 4.5. The over is -210. I do think this will go to a decision, but I don’t like how little value there is here.

Brady by decision is +150. That’s tempting to give us some plus money on this fight (Edwards by decision is +225, by the way).

Ultimately, I’m going to go with the Brady moneyline as I believe that Brady’s style and momentum will conspire to get his hand raised on Saturday.

Best bet: Sean Brady moneyline (-166)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Jan Blachowicz (+240) vs. Carlos Ulberg (-298)

It’s been a while since we last saw Blachowicz. He was due to fight Aleksandar Rakic last year, but that was because of a serious shoulder injury. Blachowicz’s last fight was his split decision loss to Alex Pereira in 2023 in Pereira’s Light Heavyweight debut. Prior to that was his disastrous draw to Magomed Ankalaev for the then-vacant UFC title (the title he briefly held after Jon Jones’ abdication).

Ulberg, meanwhile, has been a one-man wrecking crew on the Light Heavyweight division. He’s blitzed his way through Ihor Potieria, Jung Da Woon (see his submission here) and Alonzo Menifield (see his 12-second knockout here). Last time out he looked more patient, but no less effective, in navigating his way past Volkan Oezdemir.

I feel like these are pretty high odds on Blachowicz. The time he’s spent on the sidelines does concern me (we’ve seen Marvin Vettori and Rafael Fiziev lose in recent weeks after long injury induced lay-offs).

And he’s not that in-form, as a fighter, going 1-2-1 in his last four fights. The win in that record is due to Aleksandar Rakic blowing out his knee out in their fight.

Despite all this, though, Blachowicz is still very good. He has powerful and accurate hands and good enough defensive wrestling that, during his career renaissance of the last five years, he has not been overwhelmed by the best strikers or wrestlers the division has thrown at him.

A lot of the thinking on this fight is that Blachowicz needs to get Ulberg down and avoid his striking. However, I’m not totally convinced that will be the real story of this fight.

Ulberg has shown himself to be a scary striker so far in his career.

He leads the division with 7.28 significant strikes landed a minute (which is good for seventh highest overall in all UFC). His significant striking differential (2.98) also leads the division and is fifth overall in UFC. His accuracy on significant strikes (57.1 percent) is second only to Alex Pereira in the division. His 1.24 knockdowns per 15 minutes is second in the division behind Khalil Rountree Jr.

Here’s the pinch of salt …

Ulberg has racked up all those stats on a pretty low-level of opposition.

His stats against Oezdemir, his best past opponent by far, were a lot more modest. He landed 98 significant strikes in that three round fight. That translates to 6.53 per-minute. Not bad, but his accuracy on those sig. strikes was a very mid 48 percent. His striking differential was just 2, after he allowed Oezdemir to land 96 significant strikes on him (at a 52 percent accuracy clip).

I think Blachowicz can hang with Ulberg, just like Oezdemir did. Unlike Oezdemir, though, Blachowicz has a sprinkle of wrestling. Oezdemir was very predictable in the Ulberg fight and only gave Ulberg one real problem to think about — striking (Oezdemir did go for the takedown twice, and miss, but that’s not his game and not something he seriously focused on in the fight).

If Blachowicz fights to his ability, he might be able to mix striking and wrestling in a way that keeps Ulberg guessing, tires him out and disrupts his striking offense (especially if Blachowicz can duck under those long punches and get a takedown or a clinch).

The potential of a varied assault from Blachowicz has me liking his underdog line (which is similar to his line in the Ankalaev fight).

With odds those long, I’m delighted to still get +100 on the +3.5 point spread for Blachowicz. That’s where I’m going with my best bet.

I’m surprised to see over 2.5 rounds at -154. I thought Vegas would be all-in on Ulberg finishing this relatively quickly.

Best bet: Jan Blachowicz +3.5 (+100)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Gunnar Nelson (-125) vs. Kevin Holland (+105)

We haven’t seen Nelson since he armbarred Bryan Barberena in 2023 (see it here). That gave him a two fight winning streak, something he’d not had since he submitted Albert Tumenov and Alan Jouban back-to-back in 2016-17. The most notable thing that happened in between was his first round technical knockout loss to a prime Santiago Ponznibbio (see that here).

Holland, meanwhile, has been even more up-and-down than Nelson over the past few years. He was quickly submitted by Reinier de Ridder last time out (see it here). Before that he lost because of a rib injury caused by Roman Dolidze (see it here).

This is a very tough fight to pick.

It’s really difficult to know what Nelson is going to look like after a two-year layoff. And it’s really difficult to know what Holland is going to look like on any given day.

Holland’s deficiencies are well known. He struggles to stop a takedown (53 percent defense). And he gets caught in submissions a lot (31 percent of his losses are due to submission).

Like so many submission focused grapplers in UFC, Nelson has sometimes struggled to get his opponents down and then threaten them with his submissions. He was good in his last few fights, though. He went 1-2 against Barbarena and 3-3 in his previous fight (against Takashi Sato).

But, that was a while ago…

When he can’t get the takedown, Nelson can be overwhelmed on the feet (due to his pretty limited striking).

It’s entirely possible that the 36-year-old Nelson might not be able to drag Holland down and he gets picked apart for three rounds.

Since the winner of this fight is a coin flip to me (represented by the odds), I’m not going there with my best bet.

Instead I’m looking at the round total. It’s 2.5 and, again, it’s kind of tough to pick. I can see this fight going long, I can see Nelson taking Holland down and tapping him quickly and I can see Holland ending things with a big punch early.

Two of those outcomes speak to the under, so I’m going to go there. I’m not confident in anything about this fight, though.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-160)

Photo by Ben Roberts Photo/Getty Images

Molly McCann (+150) vs. Alexia Thainara (-180)

McCann was upset by Bruna Brasil the last time she fought in the UK. Meatball was undone by counter punches and a few takedowns that night. Prior to this she tapped Diana Belbita with an armbar (see it here).

Thainara, on the other hand, is coming right off Contender Series, where she took a unanimous decision over Rose Conceicao. She’s undefeated save for a 2019 loss to Bruna Brasil.

McCann is the underdog here for only the third time in her UFC career. She was a big underdog (+350) against Erin Blanchfield, before being easily submitted. She was a moderate underdog (+215) against Ariane Lipski da Silva, who she beat by decision.

McCann’s wrestling and submission defense are questionable. And that’s why she’s the underdog here against Thainara who has good BJJ and a nasty squeeze on her RNC. She’s not amazing on the feet, but she does have some decent athleticism and some snap on her punches.

I think her and McCann will trade a lot in the pocket. Thainara will have a five-inch reach advantage, but McCann is good at crashing through range to land her shots.

If Thainara’s smart, she’ll induce McCann into a wild brawl and then capitalize on that wildness with a takedown. But, we don’t know enough about her to know if she can stick to a smart plan in the cage (a surprisingly rare quality in even top-level MMA).

Thainara by submission is tempting at +400. I’m going to be a chicken, though, and just go moneyline (similar to what I did with Da’Mon Blackshear last week).

Best bet: Alexia Thainara moneyline (-180)

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Jordan Vucenic (-295) vs. Chris Duncan (+310)

Vucenic signed with UFC last year to be a short-notice opponent for Guram Kutateladze in Abu Dhabi. His striking looked on point in the first round, but then he gassed and couldn’t stop the takedown. That was his first loss since he was defeated by Paul Hughes while trying to defend his Cage Warriors Featherweight title. He had beaten Hughes — one of the best fighters outside UFC — a few years prior. He also has a win over Morgan Charriere.

Duncan, meanwhile, preyed on the very raw Bolaji Oki last time out, finishing him with a first round guillotine and earning a Performance of the Night bonus (see it here). Before the he was submitted by Manuel Torres (see that here).

We don’t have a lot to go on when it comes to Vucenic in UFC action. However, his Cage Warriors body of work deserves some respect. Fighting guys on Cage Warriors in 2020 isn’t that much different from fighting on APEX cards in 2024.

Vucenic’s striking should pose Duncan some problems on the feet. But, Duncan isn’t going to want to spend much time there. He lands 3.53 takedowns per 15 minutes, but at a dreadful 37 percent accuracy. I think he’ll get his takedowns eventually, but I don’t think they will cancel out the work Vucenic does on the feet around them.

The round total on this one is 2.5. I can see a decision here, unless Vucenic’s ground game is worse than we thought and he gets submitted quickly. Even so, the +100 on the over is too tempting for me to turn down.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (+100)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Nathaniel Wood (+130) vs. Morgan Charriere (-155)

Wood got past the tough veteran Daniel Pineda in his last fight (as a heavy favorite). Before that, he lost a decision to Muhammad Naimov.

Charriere wiped out Gabriel Miranda with a left hook back at UFC Paris (see it here). That came after his split decision loss to Chepe Mariscal. Charriere, a former two-weight champion in Cage Warriors, debuted with a body kick finish over Manolo Zecchini (see it here).

This is going to be a close fight and perhaps a very good one. Charriere has better highlights than Wood, but Wood is more consistent. Throughout his career Charriere has struggled to seal the deal (he’s 20-10-1 as a pro). Wood, though he’s not as flashy as Charriere, has a ton of experience in UFC and knows how to strategize and grind out a win.

Wood has quietly been plugging away in the Octagon since 2018. He’s had a lot of different looks over that time and has beaten strikers, wrestlers and grapplers. That’s why he’s been able to hang around so long.

I don’t think Charriere brings anything he’s not seen before. I think he’ll be able to avoid Charriere’s big swings and stick him with his jab and piece together a decision win.

Best bet: Nathaniel Wood moneyline (+130)

UFC London ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Jai Herbert (-120) vs. Chris Padilla (Even)

Herbert took a comfortable decision over Rolando Bedoya last time out. That was the best he’s looked in UFC. Prior to that he lost to Fares Ziam, by decision and fought to a draw with L’udovit Klein.

Padilla landed a perfect elbow on Rongzhu’s eye in his last fight. That caused a doctor’s stoppage. Before that, he submitted James Llontop, as a huge underdog (see it here).

This could be a fun fight. There’s not a lot between these guys. Herbert is the better striker, by a little. Padilla is the better grappler, but Herbert’s defensive wrestling/grappling helps balance that out.

I think these two might cancel each other out a bit and that will lead to a good fight that requires the judges’ scorecards.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-135)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Lone’er Kavanagh (-290) vs. Felipe dos Santos (+235)

Kavanagh took a unanimous decision win over Jose Ochoa at UFC Macau last year. That was his debut after a technical knockout on Contender Series.

dos Santos lost a unanimous decision to Andre Lima in his last fight. However, there’s not much shame in that, since Lima looked like a contender last weekend. dos Santos’ other UFC bouts are a win over Victor Altamirano and a spirited loss to Manel Kape (on short notice).

The bookies are putting a lot of faith in Kavanagh, despite his inexperience at this level. dos Santos isn’t a veteran, but he’s likely picked up some valuable lessons in his UFC tenure thus far.

I can see this one going to a decision, too.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-250)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Marcin Tybura (+105) vs. Mick Parkin (-125)

Tybura brutalized Jhonata Diniz on the ground in his last fight, leaving to a second round doctor’s stoppage and a thoroughly derailed hype train (see it here). Before that he was quickly submitted by Serghei Spivac (see it here) in a rematch no one wanted (the UFC likes those, huh?).

Tybura remarkably debuted in UFC all the way back in 2016, losing to Tim Johnson in his debut (remember, him?). He’s 13-8 in UFC and is about as good a gatekeeper as there is in the Heavyweight division.

Parkin, meanwhile, is undefeated (10-0). Four of those wins were in UFC. None of them are memorable. He KO’d Lukasz Brzeski in his last fight, but that’s due to Brzeski’s chin, or lack thereof, more than Parkin’s striking. That’s his only stoppage in UFC.

The round total on this is 2.5. The under is +130. That’s tempting because this is a Heavyweight fight.

I think Tybura is the more versatile fighter with more paths to victory, though (including a boring hug fest).

Best bet: Marcin Tybura moneyline (+105)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Christian Leroy Duncan (-650) vs. Andrey Pulyaev (+425)

We were forced to pump the brakes on Duncan after he dropped a decision to Gregory Rodrigues. He was out worked in this fight and slowed down after taking too many heavy shots from Robocop. He’d won two straight prior to that. He does also have a loss to the recently cut Armen Petrosyan, though.

Pulyaev is a Contender Series grad. He took a unanimous decision over Liam Anderson on that show. His record outside UFC is very uninspiring. He’s got more losses than most folks who are selected for the UFC pipeline (two pro, five amateur).

Pulyaev is the worst fighter Duncan has ever faced in UFC. It’s a little strange to see this match-up after Duncan just fought his toughest opponent to date.

Duncan’s boxing should help him get past Puylaev and back into the win column. The round total is 1.5. That’s very low considering Duncan’s only first round finish was due to a Dusko Todorovic knee injury. I think he’ll cruise to a decision here.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-166)

Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Shauna Bannon (-175) vs. Puja Tomar (+145)

Bannon squeaked by short-notice opponent, Alice Ardelean, in her last fight, winning by split decision. That’s her first win in UFC, having lost to Brunna Brasil in her debut.

On the other side of the cage, Tomar won her UFC debut as an underdog. She took a split decision over Rayanne Amanda. I think that was a bad decision. Tomar might have swayed the judges with her antics during the fight, which notably included screaming at her opponent.

Tomar is incredibly raw. Bannon is, too. But, I think Bannon is the more polished fighter at this stage in their careers. This will be a kickboxing match that goes the distance and I like Bannon’s chances to land the most and more effective punches.

Best bet: Shauna Bannon moneyline (-175)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Nathan Fletcher (-120) vs. Caolan Loughran (Even)

After a stint on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF), Fletcher won his proper UFC debut in Sept. 2024. He used his grappling to finish Zygimantas Ramaska via triangle. Before TUF, he spent most of his career on Cage Warriors, a fine developer of UFC talent.

Loughran lost to Jake Hadley last time out in Hadley’s Bantamweight debut. Loughran was a pretty decent-sized favorite in that bout, but Hadley schooled him with his jab.

Loughran’s last appearance has really left a poor taste in my mouth. He likes to take things to the ground. If he gets his wish here, I think he’ll get submitted. On the feet, he’s just too wooden and predictable to do any damage.

I think Fletcher will do OK enough standing and then be able to do what he does best on the ground.

Best bet: Nathan Fletcher moneyline (-115)

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Guram Kutateladze (-410) vs. Kaue Fernandes (+320)

Kutateladze and Fernandes last fought at UFC Abu Dhabi last year and the both got wins.

Kutateladze came back from being dropped in the first round to earn a decision over Jordan Vucenic. He used his wrestling to turn the tide in that bout.

Fernandes smashed Mohammad Yahya for a first round technical knockout (see it here).

Vegas thinks Kutateladze will be able to grind on Fernandes for a boring win. I don’t want to see that. Fernandes is a fun fighter and I’m going to hope he shows us that with his striking and/or possibly a submission.

Best bet: Kaue Fernandes moneyline (+320)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

UFC London Long Shots

Here’s a couple of things that look interesting (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC London card …

Leon Edwards vs. Sean Brady: Fight to End in the Last 10 seconds of Any Round (+6500)

This prop is longer odds than usual due to how hard both of these men are to finish. Edwards is the owner of one of the more famous late knockouts in UFC history, though. And Brady has a death by a thousand cuts style that could lead to a standing technical knockout or a ground-and-pound finish at the buzzer.

Alexia Thainara to win by Submission in Round 1 (+750)

McCann can be a slow starter and she’s been caught in a couple of submissions in her UFC career. Thainara is not on the same level as the women who have tapped McCann, but she’s worthy of some buzz and could be an exciting addition to the roster.

Jan Blachowicz to win by decision (+450)

I laid out why I think Blachowicz is a live dog in this fight. His lay-off worries me, but if he fights to his best ability I think he can both avoid Ulberg’s biggest shots and land some of his own. Blachowicz might also be able to take Ulberg down and exhaust him on route to a decision win. These odds feel very long for the 3rd ranked Light Heavyweight on the roster.

Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC London fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” undercard bouts at 1 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN+ at 4 p.m. ET.

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC London news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here.