UFC Vegas 104 odds: Best betting props, parlays and picks | Vettori vs. Dolidze 2

UFC Vegas 104 happens this weekend (Sat., March 15, 2025) inside the good ol’ UFC APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. The ESPN+-streamed main event will be Marvin Vettori vs. Roman Dolidze 2, a rematch that is two years in the making and which absolutely nobody asked for.

The co-main event, Chidi Njokuani vs. Elizeu Zaleski, is a banger on paper. That’s true even if neither man is a household name. The rest of this card is not much to write home about. There’s a few vets, a couple of Road to UFC alums and lots of recent Contender Series grads.

The main card is propped up by Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh, Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Cody Gibson (that one should be fun), Diyar Nurgozhay vs. Brendson Ribeiro and Seung Woo Choi vs. Kevin Vallejos.

UFC Vegas 104’s “Prelims” are headlined by one of the better fights on the card. That’s Ryan Spann moving up to Heavyweight to fight Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Buried on the “Prelims” is one of the nights other best fighters, Daniel Barez versus the undefeated Andre Lima. Around those fights, though, there’s stuff like Josiane Nunes vs. Priscila Cachoeira and Carlos Vera vs. Josias Musasa.

Let’s checkout the money lines on “Vettori vs. Dolidze 2” and all the other bouts on the card …

UFC Vegas 104 Main Card Money Line Odds

Marvin Vettori (-170) vs. Roman Dolidze (+142)

Marvin Vettori vs. Caio Borralho … Roman Dolidze vs. Paul Costa. There, that makes sense.

Those are fights with the potential of moving each man toward their ultimate goal. They are also interesting stylistic match-ups and they include a fighter who, based on either recent form or personality, could draw somewhat of a crowd.

But nope. Instead we’re getting a rematch that has none of those qualities. Vettori vs. Dolidze 1 was a close fight, but it wasn’t exactly thrilling and worth repeating.

Dolidze won the first round thanks to a flurry of right hands that stung Vettori (after a nasty clash of heads). Vettori took the second, thanks to his leg kicks and jab (and the fact Vettori got tired). The third round was close, with Dolize landing a few power shots, but Vettori landing more volume while looking like the fresher fighter.

After this fight Dolidze lost a decision to Nassourdine Imavov. In that bout Dolidze again looked tired (as he competed over five rounds for the first time in his career). This bout was similar to his fight with Vettori in that he got predictable in trying to land the same shot over and over again. Dolidze also struck out on takedowns, just like he did against Vettori.

Dolidze then came in on short notice to fight his former training partner Anthony Smith, at Light Heavyweight. Those two put on a boring and tepid sparring match and Doldize, again, looked to run out of steam towards the end.

His most recent fight was a win over Kevin Holland, due to a rib injury. The injury happened in the first round and it was due to Dolidze’s offense, albeit unintentionally (see it here).

Vettori has fought just once since his first fight with Dolidze. In June 2023, he lost a unanimous decision to Jared Cannonier, earning “Fight of the Night” honors in the process.

Despite him being on the sidelines for 1.5 years, the oddsmakers have Vettori as the favorite over Dolidze. Though these odds are much closer than in their first fight, when Vettori was the -250 favorite.

This fight feels a lot like the fight we saw last weekend, with Justin Gaethje beating Rafael Fiziev. When a rematch happens so soon after a fight, and it doesn’t feature a flash/shock stoppage, I struggle to see how the second fight could go much differently from the first.

Vettori beat Dolidze because he has more technical and diverse striking, a better gas tank, and good takedown defense. I don’t think any of that has changed.

The only difference between the last fight and this one is that these guys have gotten a little older. Vettori is 31 now. And Doldize is 36, which means he should be on the decline.

I don’t see a stoppage coming in this fight, unless Dolidze is dead on his feet to start the fifth round due to exhaustion. Vettori via decision is +100, while Dolidze by decision is +350.

The fight going the distance is a pretty safe bet at -200.

I’m pretty confident that Vettori can repeat the performance he put in against Dolidze two years ago. This fight being five rounds versus three, helps Vettori way more than it helps Dolidze.

Best bet: Marvin Vettori via decision (+100)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Chidi Njokuani (+154) vs. Elizeu Zaleski (-185)

Njokuani gets his first ever co-main event. That comes despite him being 2-3 in his last few fights. He’s coming off two wins, though; a unanimous decision over Jared Gooden and a split decision over Rhys McKee. He was finished in two of those three recent losses.

Michal Oleksiejczuk got him out of there by first round ground and pound (see it here). Gregory Rodrigues beat him with ground and pound, too (see it here).

Zaleski, meanwhile, feasted on a short-notice replacement in his last fight. He was supposed to rematch Nicolas Dalby back in Nov. 2024. Instead, he got Zach Scroggin, who he tore apart in less than one minute.

Prior to that fight, “Capoeira” lost a decision to Randy Brown and fought to a draw with Rinat Fakhretdinov.

Neither of these guys are going to be interested in a takedowns here. In a striking match-up, I think Zaleski’s power is going to give him a big advantage.

The biggest obstacle for Zaleski, when it comes to tagging Njokuani on the chin, is the reach disadvantage he’ll have on Saturday night. Njokuani’s 80-inch reach is seven inches longer than Zaleski’s. That just refers to arms, though. Zaleski has a very good arsenal of kicks (remember when he knocked out Sean Strickland with a hook kick? See it here).

Zaleski’s creativity, explosiveness and experience are all greater than Njokuani’s, so that’s enough for me to cancel out what Njokuani might be able to do with his reach.

I like Zaleski’s chance of getting a (technical) knockout and so does “Sin City.” He’s just +175 to make that happen. Njokuani is +350 to do the same to the Brazilian.

The round total for this fight is perfectly placed at 2.5 rounds, with the over set at -105 and the under at -125. I think there’s a stoppage in this fight, but I think it could happen right around that 2.5-round mark, so I best stay away from that bet.

Winning Round has some tempting odds. The fight ending in Round 1 is +240. Round 2 is +330 and Round 3 is +600. Zaleski is a fast starter, but I don’t think he will be able to get Njokuanai out there immediately. I think it might take a little time to break him down. I like the look of a round two finish. I’m assuming Zaleski gets it done in that round, but I’m also not bothered if it’s Njokuani who gets the finish there.

Best bet: Winning Round – Round 2 (+330)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Alexander Hernandez (-205) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (+170)

Holobaugh gave the Fighting Nerds a rare “L” in his last fight, out-striking Kaynan Kruschewsky for a unanimous decision. That helped him rebound from a decision loss to Try Ogden a few months earlier.

Hernandez, meanwhile, gave one of his best performances in his last fight. His win over Austin Hubbard was ruled as a split decision, but that was because of an awful scorecard from Chris Lee (who also scored in favor of Mairon Santos over Francis Marshall last weekend).

Hernandez lost his previous two bouts, decisions to Damon Jackson and Bill Algeo.

I think this is a closer fight than the oddsmakers do. Holobaugh is tough and technical and deserves some more credit in this match-up.

The strikes Hernandez landed against Hubbard looked good, but he only landed 79 of the 204 significant strikes he threw (38 percent).

Holobaugh was far more economical in the Kruschewsky fight, landing 92 of the 171 sig. strikes he threw (53 percent).

I think this is likely to be a close fight that goes to a decision and I think Holobaugh, and his cleaner striking, could take it.

The round total on this fight is 2.5 rounds. The over is a safe bet at -220, in my opinion. If you believe this is going the distance, and you want more value, you’re best looking at either man to win via decision. Alexander Hernandez is +100 to win by decision. My pick Holobaugh is +500 to win a decision.

Holobaugh +3.5 points is -165. I love that bet, but fortune favors the bold.

Best bet: Kurt Holobuagh via decision (+500)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Da’Mon Blackshear (-455) vs. Cody Gibson (+350)

This could be a really fun grappling match-up.

Both these guys used their size advantages to dominate on the ground in their last fights. Blackshear made short work of Cody Stamann, submitting him in the first (see it here), while Gibson smothered Chad Anheliger and cruised to a decision win.

Prior to that, Gibson quickly submitted the smaller Brian Kelleher.

These two size bullies won’t be able to rely on their physiques in this match-up. They are, as a legendary play-by-play man of yesteryear would say, “virtually identical” in height and reach.

Neither Blackshear nor Gibson have the prettiest striking, but their transitions and submissions on the ground are very fun to watch. I hope most this fight is spent with them rolling and looking to catch the other in something nasty,

I agree with the bookies here that Blackshear deserves to be the big favorite in the fight. His grappling is more violent than Gibson’s and he has a decent youth and athleticism advantage over the two-time The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veteran.

Blackshear by submission is a very tempting +225. I also like Blackshear -3.5 in this fight, thinking if he can’t win by submission he likely takes a very lopsided decision victory. The odds on that are -165.

Betting on the fight not to go the distance is tempting, too. You can get that at +125.

Due to Gibson’s grappling, I’m swayed away from taking Blackshear to win by submission. Instead, I’ll go with the point spread and just kick myself if Blackshear catches Gibson with a calf slicer.

Best bet: Da’Mon Blackshear -3.5 (-165)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Diyar Nurgozhay (-345) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+275)

At UFC Edmonton, Ribeiro defeated Caio Machado via split decision in what may have been one of the worst fights of the year. That win came after he lost a decision to Magomed Gazhiyasulov and was demolished by Zhang Mingyang (see that here).

Nurgozhay, meanwhile, won via technical knockout on Contender Series last year. He’s a sizeable favorite here despite not having many exploits outside of Eurasia.

I’m tempted to fade Ribeiro in every fight I see him in. He doesn’t fight with much urgency or intensity. He’s rangy, but other than leg kicks, he doesn’t have much in the way of striking. And his takedown defense is pretty poor.

Nurgozhay showed some promise on Contender Series and I like his chances to take out Ribeiro in his proper UFC debut.

The round total is 1.5 rounds. I’ll go under, since I’m hoping we don’t have to watch this fight for very long.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (+120)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Seung Woo Choi (+410) vs. Kevin Vallejos (-550)

Woo Choi was obliterated by Steve Garcia in his last bout. There’s not a lot of shame in that given the run Garcia has been on. However, that was Choi’s second knockout loss in his last three fights. In 2022, he was starched by Michael Trizano (see it here).

Vallejos, on the other hand, is coming off a first round knockout on Contender Series. His only professional loss came in his first appearance on Contender Series, when he lost a decision to Jean Silva (yes that Jean Silva).

Vallejos is the only man Silva has been unable to stop in a UFC Octagon. I think that deserves some credit.

Vallejos is a very active striker and 70 percent of his career wins have come via (technical) knockout. I think that spells problems for Choi, whose chin and ability to see a punch coming are now under question.

Vallejos to win by KO/TKO/DQ is just -175. I think that’s what’s going to happen, but that’s very short odds for this prop.

Vallejos to win by KO/TKO/DQ in round 1 is +200. I’ll go there, as a sign that I really don’t think Choi can survive any fight with someone who hits this hard.

Best bet: Kevin Vallejos to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+200)

UFC Vegas 104 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-166) vs. Ryan Spann (+140)

Spann has moved up to Heavyweight. And he’s be given a decent test for his debut in the division.

Indeed, Cortes-Acosta is one a three-fight win streak. His last fight was in May. That’s when he dominated one-trick pony, Robelis Despaigne, for a decision. Prior to that, he beat Andrei Arlovski and TKO’d Lukasz Brzeski.

Spann moves to Heavyweight after a big win over Ovince St. Preux. He beat the veteran with his go-to guillotine for the first round finish. That snapped a three-fight losing skid for Spann, which featured a technical knockout loss to Bogdan Guskov (see it here), a split decision to Anthony Smith, and a submission loss to Nikita Krylov (see it here).

Spann will be the bigger man in this match up, with one inch of height and reach over Cortes-Acosta. Without a size discrepancy to worry about, I’m fancying Spann in this match-up.

He’s far quicker and more athletic than the average Heavyweight and he’s been fighting a higher calibre of opponent at 205 pounds than Cortes-Acosta has in his career to date.

Cortes-Acosta has the better striking stats on paper. His 5.36 significant strikes per-minute is particularly gaudy (good for second in the division, behind just Tom Aspinall). That number is high because he’s fought a lot of the moving statues at Heavyweight, though. The number is also inflated due to his 147 strikes landed on Chase Sherman in his third UFC fight (he’s not come close to that in any other fight).

Despite all his volume, though, Cortes-Acosta has just two finishes in the Octagon (one of which was on Contender Series). Across his six UFC fights, he’s scored just one knockdown, which came before he finished Brzeski. Brzeski has also been finished by Mick Parkin and Kennedy Nzechukwu.

Spann has way more power in his hands. He’s landed five knockdowns in UFC, which is good for joint sixth highest in the Light Heavyweight division. His knockdown rate per 15 minutes is 1.0, which is fifth highest in his old division.

I think Spann is going to enjoy trying to hit a slower moving target than he’s been used to. If we see him getting the better of the striking exchanges Cortes-Acosta will likely look to change things up in the fight. If he’s dramatically heavier than Spann, he might be able to bully him against the fence or hold him down on the ground for a while. Spann is not a bad wrestler, though, so I think he can get himself out of trouble there. He’s also got that wicked guillotine for anyone who carelessly pushes him against the fence or goes for a telegraphed takedown.

The round total for this one is 1.5 rounds. The over is -180 and the under is +140. I think this probably goes over, with either a late finish or a decision on the cards for us.

Ultimately, though, I’m going straight up with the underdog

Best bet: Ryan Spann moneyline (+140)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

SuYoung You (-600) vs. A.J. Cunningham (+440)

Cunningham came in on short notice to fight L’udovit Klein in his UFC debut. Klein, who was preparing for the very good Joel Alvarez, finished Cunningham with a first round body kick (see it here). Cunningham was likely given a second UFC bout as a thank you for coming in on short notice.

This second fight is against a massive favorite in a lower weight class, though.

SuYoung You won Road to UFC’s latest bantamweight title, beating Baergeng Jieleyisi in a fun fight.

Cunningham will be much bigger than You in this fight. That would impress me if this was a weight cut we knew he could handle without issue.

You looked like a decent striker and an excellent wrestler in his Road to UFC fights. I don’t think he’ll have trouble taking down Cunningham and beating on him toward a possible finish.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-120)

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Stephanie Luciano (-230) vs. Sam Hughes (+190)

Luciano looks like a good prospect in this division. Her striking was on point in her UFC debut, when she picked apart Talita Alencar (and defended against all her wrestling attacks).

Hughes out-worked and broke Victoria Dudakova in her last fight. Dudakova’s struggles since then have made that look a little less impressive, though.

If the same Luciano who fought Alencar shows up on Saturday, she should have no problem beating the veteran Hughes. Her hands were quick and sharp in her debut and she showed some interesting levels of creativity.

Hughes is not very creative. She is tough, though. If Luciano takes her lightly, she could end up getting frustrated and forced into an ugly grinding affair against the fence.

I’m a believer in Luciano, though. And I’m hoping she’s as good as she seemed in her last fight.

Best bet: Stephanie Luciano moneyline (-230)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Carlos Vera (+500) vs. Josias Musasa (-700)

The undefeated (8-0) Musasa is the biggest favorite on the card. He punched his ticket to the big show with a split decision win on Contender Series back in Sept. 2024.

Musasa draws Vera for his proper UFC debut. Vera was on TUF. In his proper UFC debut, he dropped a decision to Rinya Nakamura.

Musasa’s Contender Series fight is the only bout he hasn’t finished via first round (technical) knockout. He’s almost 10 years younger than Vera. He’s also bigger and has a five-inch reach advantage. I think he’ll win this one and it will be quick and violent.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-160)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Daniel Barez (+280) vs. Andre Lima (-355)

This is an exciting match-up and I’m surprised to see it buried on the “Prelims.” I’d rather see these two on the main card than anything involving the aforementioned Ribeiro.

Lima is now 10-0 after beating Felipe dos Santos in his last fight. That was a complete performance from Lima and a performance devoid of any weirdness. Prior to that, he took a split decision over Mitch Raposo in a fight where Lima came in five pounds heavy. And before that, he won via disqualification after being bit by Igor Severino (see that here).

Barez got his first UFC win last time out, with a decision over Victor Altamirano.

Barez hits hard and has good wrestling. Lima is very talented and everything he does is a lot smoother than what Barez does. I think this will be a close and interesting fight with good exchanges on the feet and on the ground.

Lima’s BJJ, and submission threat, is where he’s much better than Barez. Barez might take him down in this fight and then be sorry he did so, with Lima attacking off his back.

At this time of writing I don’t have a Lima by submission prop bet to choose from. That would be my pick for this fight, though. Since I don’t have that, I like the Lima moneyline or over 2.5 rounds.

Best bet: Andre Lima moneyline (-360)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Josiane Nunes (-185) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+154)

This should be happening on LFA or Invicta. Both these women have lost their last two and both a very one dimensional brawlers.

Nunes lost a split decision to Jacqueline Cavalcanti in her last fight. I think the split decision was a little too kind to her, though. She pressed forwards for the whole fight, but was tagged with counters throughout.

Cachoeira was dominated by Jasmine Jasudavicius in her last fight, being submitted in the third round (see it here).

These two are going to box for 15 minutes and Nunes will probably land the most volume. Cachoeira absorbs a sickening 7.03 significant strikes per minute. Her inability to protect herself in the cage should make her ineligible for a license to fight.

In the Jasudavicius fight she took 93 significant strikes and only landed 24 herself.

Nunes doesn’t have much power, but she should be able to land first on Cachoeira and chip away for a lopsided decision.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-188)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Yuneisy Duben (+295) vs. Carli Judice (-375)

Duben packs a punch. She got Dana White off his feet on Contender Series after laying out Shannon Clark with a brutal overhand right (before narrowly avoiding murdering Clark with a thankfully errant follow-up hammerfist).

Judice has lost two split decisions in a row now. Her last loss, to Gabriella Fernandes, earned her a “Fight of the Night” bonus.

Judice is a brawler who is willing to take one to land one. Against Fernandes. this meant she ate a lot of good shots.

If Judice lets Duben get her big punches off then she might get finished here.

Best bet: Yuneisy Duban moneyline (+295)

Photo by Catherine Ivill/Getty Images

UFC Vegas 104 Long Shots

Here’s a couple of things that look interesting (on DraftKings) for this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 104 card …

Two-fight parlay: Ryan Spann and Kurt Holobaugh (+538)

I like a few underdogs on this card. I’ve paired the two most experienced and accomplished of those fighters together on this parlay. I’m intrigued by Ryan Spann at Heavyweight and I don’t think Waldo Cortes-Acosta is too big a mountain for him to climb there. Kurt Holobaugh looked very solid in his last fight. Alexander Hernandez looked good, too, but I fancy Holobaugh to be more consistent and win the striking battle.

Marvin Vettori to win by submission – Round 5 (+5000)

Marvin Vettori has nine submission wins in his career (though, just two in UFC). If I’m right about Roman Dolidze not having the stamina to fight a Vettori style fight for five rounds, I think we could see the Georgian really struggle in the fifth round. That’s when Vettori might start to hurt him on the feet. Maybe that elicits some tired takedown attempts from Dolidze and that allows Vettori to grab a hold of his neck.

Chidi Njokuani and Elizeu Zaleski to finish as a Draw (+5000)

This is my wild pick of the week. We’ve seen referees being called into action a lot on the last few cards, due to low blows and eye pokes. And we actually saw a point deduction in the Armen Petrosyan vs. Brunno Ferreira fight. I have a feeling we might see a point deduction in this fight, too, with Njokuani’s long lead hand and fingers catching Zaleski’s eyes or perhaps Zaleski’s inside leg kicks hitting the groin. The prop on a point deduction is +2000. But what if that point deduction, in a close fight, lead to a draw? I’ll put a buck on it and keep my fingers crossed. The way Zaleski fights, there’s also a chance he wins a 10-8 round and loses two 9-10s.

Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 104 card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 7 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 104: “Vettori vs. Dolidze 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.