Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) has not staged a full-blown pay-per-view (PPV) event in over a month, so it’s nice to get out of the APEX and gather ‘round for a fully loaded fight card (even if it costs an arm and a leg). It also feels weird to be gearing up for a PPV show that’s not headlined by Alex Pereira, which is a testament to how busy the former champ has been over the last two years (and how special he makes it feel).
This weekend’s offering is UFC 314, headlined by the vacant featherweight title fight pitting former 145-pound kingpin, Alex Volkanovski, against No. 3-ranked title contender, Diego Lopes. The co-headlining attraction has lightweight action man, Michael Chandler, throwing hands opposite streaking scouser, Paddy Pimblett, with “Iron” risking his spot in the Top 10 of the official 155-pound rankings (see the Top 15 right here).
Let’s take a closer look at the UFC 314 PPV main card below.
145 lbs.: Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski (26-4) vs. Diego Lopes (26-6) for vacant featherweight title
Former UFC featherweight champion Alex Volkanovski makes his long-awaited return to the Octagon after more than a year on the sidelines, a rest he unquestionably needed in the wake of back-to-back knockout losses opposite Islam Makhachev and Ilia Topuria, the latter of which cost “The Great” his 145-pound title. Much has been made about the frequency of title fights from former light heavyweight kingpin Alex Pereira, and rightly so, but let’s not forget that before “Poatan” was banging out PPV cards left and right, Volkanovski cranked out six UFC title fights in less than two years, yet another reason the Aussie needed some time off.
Will it matter?
I’m surprised at how many people got behind the narrative that Volkanovski came back too quickly following his Makhachev loss and I’m even more surprised at the whispers of the former champ being washed. Last time I checked (which was 30 seconds ago), Makhachev is ranked No. 1 in the world on the pound-for-pound chart and Topuria is not far behind him at No. 3. We should also point out that “La Leyenda” also knocked out the previously-indestructible Max Holloway, so it seems more probable the 36 year-old Volkanovski was simply beaten by superior (and younger) fighters. With that in mind, “The Great” at -130 on the moneyline feels like a steal.
Diego Lopes has been a fun and exciting addition to the featherweight division with an impressive record to match his considerable hype. After a debut loss to Movsar Evloev, Lopes rattled off five straight wins, which includes his UFC 306 decision over two-time title challenger Brian Ortega. In terms of star power, that’s the biggest name on the Brazilian’s hit list, which probably would have been impressive five years ago. These days, Ortega does more complaining than actual fighting and chose to move up in weight because it appears that maintaining a featherweight physique is not worth the effort. Before that, Lopes outworked Dan Ige and knocked around the likes of Sodiq Yusuff and Pat Sabatini. These are all good fighters … but not anywhere near the level of Volkanovski.
Lopes has slick submissions and knockout power but his technique tends to be a little sloppy once things start heating up inside the cage. If the bandwagoners are right and Volkanovski is indeed washed, then expect Lopes to win by knockout in the first frame. Otherwise, I expect Volkanovski to be the crisper, cleaner striker who prevails in scrambles and keeps himself out of danger on the mat. The former champ does a better job of putting it all together and has already proven himself against the best fighters in the world — and you can even make an argument for his first Makhachev fight. Expect Lopes to become a Dustin Poirier or Justin Gaethje type of featherweight — one exciting fight after another — but always falling short of the promotion’s top prize.
Prediction: Volkanovski def. Lopes by decision
155 lbs.: “Iron” Michael Chandler (23-9) vs. Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett (22-3)
I don’t get the Michael Chandler hate and never did, because “Iron” is the kind of fighter that any promotion would be lucky to have — UFC included. Maybe he’s a little corny at times or sneaks in the occasional foul, but Chandler has six fights inside the Octagon and five of them returned post-fight performance bonuses, including three “Fight of the Night” honors. Some of the new kids on the block may have missed his run under the Bellator MMA banner but I can assure you it was just as spectacular, with his Eddie Alvarez rivalry representing some of the best MMA action you’ll ever witness. I know fans like to mock Chandler for getting burned on the Conor McGregor fight but let’s be real, any lightweight outside of the champion would have likely done the same because this is prize fighting and there is no bigger prize than a Connie cash out.
The NCAA Division-1 All American out of the University of Missouri is one of the most talented wrestlers at 155 pounds, but like Justin Gaethje, seems compelled to stand and bang. That’s great for the fans and not-so-great for his chin, which is probably gone (or close to gone) at this stage. Chandler turns 39 in just a few weeks and despite his incredible physique, has a lot of miles on those proverbial tires. That doesn’t mean he’s a pushover by any stretch of the imagination. The former Bellator MMA lightweight champion has knockout power, wins most of his scrambles, and can do a fifth round just as fresh as his first, making him dangerous at any point throughout the fight. For most combatants, I would have a problem with a 2-4 record in UFC but Chandler’s four losses came against former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira (twice), and former interim 155-pound champions Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. Those are three of the best lightweights in history and losing to them is hardly a career killer.
Like Chandler, Paddy Pimblett joined UFC back in 2021 and racked up a bunch of post-fight performance bonuses in a short amount of time. Unlike Chandler, Pimblett has not been fighting the top half of the division and has yet to prove himself against an elite lightweight. I don’t want to take anything away from his victory over Bobby Green but … c’mon. “King” has 17 pro losses and has been finished nine times in his MMA career. Before that, Pimblett beat a dead horse in the form of Tony Ferguson and won a decision he probably should have lost against Jared Gordon. With that in mind, I’m not sure I understand Pimblett as the -150 moneyline favorite. For what … submitting Jordan Leavitt? Knocking out Luigi Vendramini? Half of the people Pimblett has defeated are no longer competing for UFC, which should tell you the quality of competition “The Baddy” has been facing in his four-plus years inside the Octagon. It’s also worth pointing out that Pimblett has only fought twice since late 2022 for various reasons (including injury).
Ordinarily I would say Pimblett’s age (30) would give him an advantage but Chandler is a professional athlete and does not have an off season, nor does he ever get fat and lazy in between fights (looking at you, Paddy). When you examine their respective stats, both Chandler and Pimblett have high-output offense and horribly porous defense, sometimes taking just as much damage as they dish out. In order to pick against Chandler you have to believe that his chin is completely gone, because “Iron” has more experience against better competition and brings a better wrestling game into tomorrow night’s contest. Unless Pimblett changes up his gameplan and tries to play it safe, we could be looking at “Fight of the Night” and a comeback victory for Chandler, who is likely to get off to a rocky start but finish strong.
Prediction: Chandler def. Pimblett by unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell (17-2) vs. Jean “Lord” Silva (15-2)
Bryce Mitchell is a good example of how a fighter’s personality can be conflated with his (or her) personal success. There’s really no reason for “Thug Nasty” to be a two-to-one betting underdog against an unproven commodity in Jean Silva. That’s not to diminish anything we’ve seen from the former “Contender Series” standout, but what is this obsession the MMA industry has with new toys? I’m not going to anoint Silva the next big thing at 145 pounds because he beat up a 36 year-old Westin Wilson. Are we really that excited for a victory over … Melsik Baghdasaryan? Mitchell has fought and defeated superior competition in his UFC career, like Edson Barboza and Dan Ige, two veterans who are no strangers to the featherweight rankings. Mitchell doesn’t get the respect he deserves as a fighter because he’s such an idiot outside the cage, power drilling his own nuts, praising Hitler, and arguing over the shape of the earth. Hey Bryce, no one cares about your conversations with Jesus … just go out there and fight.
Silva is one of the “Fighting Nerds” with the goofy glasses gimmick, representing a new generation of high-octane fighters. The Brazilian is a prolific finisher with 12 knockouts in 15 wins. Mitchell has only been stopped by strikes once in his career and it was a doozy, thanks to the bludgeoning power of featherweight veteran Josh Emmett. I don’t think that’s indicative of Mitchell’s durability because Emmett can sleep anyone if he lands one straight on the kisser, but “Thug Nasty” will no doubt be in danger for all three rounds. Don’t expect the former “Ultimate Fighter” (and his one measly knockout win) to try and bang with Silva, this is all about the wrestling. Mitchell averages 3.39 takedowns per fight and it’s worth mentioning that Silva was taken down three times by Charles Jordain … not that it did the Canadian any good, since Silva roared back to score the knockout victory in the second stanza.
That’s really what this fight boils down to. Silva will be looking to continue his winning ways in the most violent way possible, while Mitchell attempts to avoid the Brazilian blitzkrieg and drag the fight to the floor, where he can neutralize “Lord” and work for advantageous positions. As much as I want “Thug Nasty” to take another beating, I think he upsets the 145-pound apple cart and shows Silva that even “Nerds” can fail a test every now and again.
Prediction: Mitchell def. Silva by decision
145 lbs.: Yair “El Pantera” Rodriguez (19-5, 1 NC) vs. Patricio “Pitbull” Freire (36-7)
It’s been more than a decade since Yair Rodriguez made a name for himself on Season 1 of The Ultimate Fighter: “Latin America” reality show and though he’s just 32 years old, “El Pantera” has been around long enough to do battle with the likes of retired legends like BJ Penn and Frankie Edgar. Rodriguez is currently mired in a two-fight losing streak in which he was finished in both defeats, suffering a technical knockout loss to Alex Volkanovski at UFC 290 before getting subbed by Brian Ortega at UFC Mexico City. Those performances were not enough to boot “El Pantera” from the Top 5 of the featherweight rankings but if we’re being honest, his signature victories over the last few years do not hold up well. Beating Josh Emmett is no longer a big deal because everybody seems to be doing it these days and I’m not breaking out the party hats for a decision victory over the durable but fairly one-dimensional Jeremy Stephens. It’s also worth noting that Rodriguez is temperamental, injury prone, and has only competed twice over the last two years.
Patricio Freire is an exciting addition to the UFC featherweight division but much like fellow Bellator MMA import Michael Chandler, we’re not getting “Pitbull” in his prime. The Brazilian turns 38 in July and has been competing professionally for over 20 years, with more than half of that time spent under the Bellator MMA banner. Freire held championship titles in two separate divisions and has 24 finishes in 36 wins, split evenly between knockouts and submissions at 12 apiece. That said, “Pitbull” has just one victory since late 2022, a technical knockout finish over Canadian journeyman Jeremy Kennedy in Belfast, a fight that took place well over a year ago. Freire is a complete fighter in every sense of the word, demonstrating excellence both on the feet and on the ground, with a gas tank that can hold up for as long as the contest requires. Whether or not you view the Brazilian as an immediate contender in the UFC featherweight division likely depends on how you weigh his competition in Bellator MMA, where he’s battled the likes of AJ McKee, Daniel Straus, and the aforementioned Chandler, among others.
Rodriguez is a dynamic striker with an unorthodox approach but has not looked great in recent fights. Perhaps that’s a credit to his level of competition, which is what makes this fight so intriguing. The result is likely to tell us whether or not “El Pantera” has a future in the Top 5 of the UFC featherweight division, which is exactly the same question that needs to be answered for Freire. Even with his recent struggles, it’s hard to pick against a fighter who is younger, holds nine post-fight performance bonuses (including five “Fight of the Night” honors), and has years of experience against some of the top names at 145 pounds. That doesn’t mean he’ll run through Freire by any stretch of the imagination and may even find himself in trouble late in the fight, but there are too many unknowns on the “Pitbull” side. I also don’t think a three-rounder against a high-volume striker is enough time for Freire to find his sea legs.
Prediction: Rodriguez def. Freire by decision
205 lbs.: Nikita “The Miner” Krylov (30-9) vs. Dominick “The Devastator” Reyes (14-4)
Nikita Krylov is making his Octagon return after missing two years of his competitive prime for reasons not quite understood. There was talk of a “serious shoulder injury” with little to no detail and “The Miner” didn’t seem to be in any big hurry to share what he’s been up to during recent media appearances. Missing a huge chunk of time in a sport as unforgiving as MMA immediately raises a couple of red flags, which include conditioning and cage rust. Krylov was never a high-octane fighter to begin with but he’s facing a natural athlete who above all else, will show up ready to go hard for all three rounds. It’s hard to believe that Krylov — still just 33 years old — has been competing in UFC for well over a decade, making his debut in the heavyweight division opposite Soa Palelei as part of the UFC 164 fight card in summer 2013. To give you some perspective on that timeline, Anthony Pettis and Ben Henderson were fighting for the lightweight title. In the years that followed, Krylov managed an 11-7 record for UFC and spent 2017 (and part of 2018) duking it out on the international circuit.
Dominick Reyes turns 36 at the end of the year and I can’t help but wonder how his career would have played out had the decision swung in his favor against Jon Jones at UFC 247. The debate over whether or not he was robbed by the judges continues to this day, but it doesn’t change the fact that “The Devastator” lost four straight, getting knocked out three straight times against some of the best fighters in the 205-pound weight class. After a lengthy timeout, Reyes recovered and managed to bounce back into the win column with consecutive victories over Dustin Jacoby and Anthony Smith, but it’s hard to get too excited over that “comeback” when you consider where both opponents are in their respective MMA careers. Jacoby has dropped four of his last six while Smith has dropped five of seven. Reyes is primarily a striker and will only have three rounds to crumble one of the most durable chins in the division, while also avoiding incoming fire from the returning Russian. I would be shocked if this fight went to as decision, based solely on the fact that Krylov has a staggering 28 finishes in 30 wins.
Reyes has been able to stave off the dreaded pink slip with a couple of must-win victories but his level of competition doesn’t have me convinced that he’s “back” or competing at the level that troubled Jon Jones. He’ll certainly have his moments against “The Miner,” as he did against Jiri Prochazka, but I fear a similar ending awaits “The Devastator,” who may not have the beard to hang tough in a three-round slobberknocker.
Prediction: Krylov def. Reyes by technical knockout
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 314 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+)
To check out the latest and greatest UFC 314: “Volkanovski vs. Lopes” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here. For the updated and finalized UFC 314 fight card and PPV lineup click here.
This story originally appeared on MMA Mania
