Bryce Mitchell vs. Said Nurmagomedov: Odds, full fight preview and prediction | UFC Abu Dhabi

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Bantamweight standouts Bryce Mitchell vs. Said Nurmagomedov will go to war this weekend (Sat., July 26, 2025) at UFC Abu Dhabi inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.

Mitchell, if nothing else, is a character, a memorable face in the sea of Contenders Series uniformity. “Thug Nasty” is also a pretty talented fighter, which is why he was able to climb into the ranks of a talented division like Featherweight. Unfortunately, he never quite developed the physicality to be a top-flight contender, a flaw ruthlessly exploited three times now in fairly brutal fashion.

Will a drop to Bantamweight fix that gap?

Nurmagomedov will help us find out. He’s unrelated to the Khabib clan and generally not as good as that incredibly accomplished crew, but Nurmagomedov is a quality Bantamweight with some strong wins and 10 UFC fights on his record. As one of the better unranked 135-pounders, he’s a great introduction to the division.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

Mitchell vs. Nurmagomedov Betting Odds

• Bryce Mitchell victory: -122
• Bryce Mitchell via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Bryce Mitchell via submission: TBD
• Bryce Mitchell via decision: TBD
• Said Nurmagomedov victory: +102
• Said Nurmagomedov via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
• Said Nurmagomedov via submission: TBD
• Said Nurmagomedov via decision: TBD
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC

How Mitchell Wins

Mitchell really has become quite good at the whole fighting thing without ever training with any well-known names. His jiu-jitsu is excellent, his chain wrestling is smothering, and his kickboxing is slicker than expected, though it’s without much pop. All told, he’s stopped nine foes via tapout.

Everybody knows what Mitchell wants to do here. He’s got to wrangle the rangy Russian and nullify those kicks with control. We have seen Nurmagomedov struggle with chain wrestling in the past, and we’ve also seen him fatigue when forced into a grinding match. His weaknesses line up well with Mitchell’s strengths, so the path to victory is obvious enough.

That’s not to say it will be easy. Mitchell’s offensive footwork and cage-cutting will have to be on point to avoid getting front kicked repeatedly, and he’s going to have to really watch his neck while shooting. Three of Nurmagomedov’s last four wins came via guillotine, and Mitchell is not immune to submissions just because of his own grappling abilities.

Keep those shoulders shrugged, “Thug Nasty.”

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

How Nurmagomedov Wins

Nurmagomedov is an interesting talent. He’s an excellent and flashy kicker first and foremost, and a pretty explosive wrestler in spurts. The outstanding guillotine/ninja choke is the most famous weapon in his arsenal, and generally, it feels like he should be achieving more success than he’s thus far managed inside the Octagon.

The big issues seem to be maintaining pace and denying takedowns.

Both will be tested here, as Mitchell is a true blue grinder. His game plan is no secret. Nurmagomedov can counter by harrying him with intercepting shots up the middle, like the front kick and spinning back kick, to buy himself time at distance.

A great x-factor here is how Mitchell adapts to Bantamweight speed. His quickness was an asset at Featherweight, but Nurmagomedov will likely be the faster man here. To take advantage, Nurmagomedov has to keep his feet moving laterally and then try to close distance quickly with straight punches. There’s risk of a reactive takedown, certainly, but stinging Mitchell with fast punches and being evasive would really help Nurmagomedov dictate where the fight takes place.

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC

Mitchell vs. Nurmagomedov Prediction

This bout being list as a pick ‘em feels appropriate, as there are lots of unknowns with Mitchell’s move down to Bantamweight. How much of his struggles came from being undersized versus inadequate preparation versus simply fighting elite opponents? It’s impossible to know. That said, dropping to 135 lbs. for this match up helps solve at least two of those issues.

Nurmagomedov is no Ilia Topuria.

He is, however, the vastly superior kickboxer, and that guillotine is plenty proven inside the Octagon. It’s hard to bet on him because of his historic issues with getting grounded, but he’s absolutely a threat to Mitchell on each takedown attempt and whenever they’re standing.

Ultimately, Mitchell has beaten a higher calibre of competition overall. He should be able to make the drop comfortably. I don’t know that his ceiling is any higher at Bantamweight, but he still rose further up the ranks than Nurmagomedov is likely to manage.

I’m expecting the “Thug Nasty” renaissance to be brief, but it begins Saturday.

Prediction: Mitchell via decision