It’s impossible to tell which movies will be hits and which will flop. Yet sometimes it feels safe to guess. A new Avengers movie? Probably going to make money. A third attempt at a Tron film, when the past two disappointed? Shouldn’t be shocking that Tron: Ares bombed. However, nothing in Hollywood is a sure thing, and for every Iron Man and Oppenheimer whose success took everyone by surprise, there are plenty of films that seemed like sure-fire hits only to fizzle out at the box office.
The reasons for flopping are always different. Poor marketing, intense competition, and so little money to go around. Sometimes movies are ahead of their time, while others are just plain bad. The COVID-19 pandemic certainly impacted theater attendance, with many waiting to see movies at home on streaming. Here are the ten movies that bombed at the box office that nobody saw coming, though with the benefit of hindsight, maybe someone could have.
‘Rise of the Guardians’ (2012)
In the 2000s, DreamWorks Animation was the second-most popular animation studio, behind Pixar and even beating out Walt Disney Animation. Titles like Shrek, Madagascar, Kung Fu Panda, and How to Train Your Dragon were all box office hits that launched major franchises. It seemed that anything they made, regardless of quality (looking at you, Shark Tale), was a box office hit. That is what made the fact that Rise of the Guardians bombed at the box office so disappointing.
With the genius pitch of “The Avengers“, but with childhood icons like Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny, and an all-star cast that included Chris Pine, Alec Baldwin, Hugh Jackman, Isla Fisher, and Jude Law, Rise of the Guardians had all the makings of a box office smash hit and future franchise. Despite positive reviews and the movie actually grossing $306.9 million against its $145 million budget, the movie lost DreamWorks Animation $87 million when marketing costs were factored in. Fortunately, Rise of the Guardians gained a cult following, with the film’s director, Peter Ramsey, later moving on to co-direct Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse.
‘Terminator: Dark Fate’ (2019)
Even though none of the Terminator movies ever captured the box office heights of Terminator 2: Judgment Day, the franchise seems as indestructible as a T-1000, as even the poorly received entries (really, everything after T2) still managed to avoid being a box office bomb. Bolstered by the return of Arnold Schwarzenegger and franchise star Linda Hamilton, and by the greater involvement of original Terminator director James Cameron, Terminator: Dark Fate was set up for success.
But after three disappointing sequels, audiences grew tired of the Terminator franchise and weren’t interested in taking a chance on another entry. Terminator: Dark Fate was labeled a flop after its $29 million opening weekend. With a budget of between $185 and $196 million and an additional $80 to $100 million for marketing, Terminator: Dark Fate reportedly needed to make $450 million. It ultimately grossed $261.1 million worldwide, losing Paramount and Skydance up to $122.6 million. The sad thing was that Terminator: Dark Fate was easily the best Terminator movie since T2: Judgment Day.
‘West Side Story’ (2021)
Picture this. Steven Spielberg, one of the greatest directors of all time, who has delivered box office hits ranging from Jaws to Saving Private Ryan, is remaking West Side Story, one of the most popular musicals of all time. The original West Side Story is among the highest-grossing films adjusted for inflation. Seriously, what could go wrong? It seemed destined for box office and awards glory, and it might have done better if not for the COVID-19 pandemic.
West Side Story was originally set to open on Dec. 18, 2020. However, the COVID-19 pandemic delayed the movie by over a year. By the time the movie was released in theaters on Dec. 10, 2021, it was still within the return period for many audiences, which was not ideal for a musical, a genre that already faces considerable audience skepticism. Then there was the fact that it opened one week before Spider-Man: No Way Home, the movie audiences seemed to be waiting to make their big return trip to the movies. With a $100 million budget, West Side Story grossed only $38.5 million domestically and $76 million worldwide, far short of the reported $300 million break-even point. That is disappointing, considering Spielberg’s West Side Story is both one of the best remakes ever and one of the best musical films.
‘The Matrix Resurrections’ (2021)
The Matrix Resurrections falls into a weird limbo of being a movie impacted by Warner Bros. Project Popcorn incentive to release their 2021 slate in theaters and available to stream on HBO Max on the same day. This unique release pattern certainly impacted movies like The Suicide Squad and Mortal Kombat‘s box office performance. The Matrix Resurrections feels like a unique case where, even without the streaming release, it would have been a box office flop.
The sequel to the legendary Matrix franchise, arriving 18 years after the previous film, had an incredible trailer that got audiences excited. However, the finished film left many cold, just like the previous two Matrix sequels. Like West Side Story, The Matrix Resurrections would have found itself competing with Spider-Man: No Way Home. With $160.2 million worldwide (only $40.5 million from the domestic box office), a theatrical exclusive window could have edged it past its $190 million budget. With the film likely needing to gross $400 million to break even, it wasn’t going to happen. The Matrix Resurrections is a lot like Lana Wachowski’s Speed Racer, a box office flop that might have been ahead of its time.
‘Lightyear’ (2022)
Buzz Lightyear is Pixar’s most famous and iconic character, so the idea of making an in-universe movie based on the Buzz Lightyear toy is a high-concept meta pitch. However, it is the bold direction one expects from Pixar. Disney was so confident that Lightyear would be a box office hit, based on its association with the Toy Story brand, that they made it Pixar’s first film back in theaters after sending original Pixar titles like Luca and Turning Red straight to Disney+ despite theaters being open.
Yet the concept of Lightyear seemingly might have been too meta for audiences. While Lightyear‘s $50 million opening weekend sounds good on paper, it was one of Pixar’s lowest at the time, and the movie came in second to Jurassic World: Dominion in its second weekend. Lightyear would quickly fall out of the box office top 10, ultimately grossing $118 million domestically and $226 million worldwide. With a budget of $200 million, Lightyear reportedly lost Disney and Pixar $106 million. Disney’s decision to send their films quickly to Disney+, combined with the fact that the last three Pixar films were straight to Disney+, likely informed audiences they could wait to see Lightyear on a streaming service they were already paying for.
‘The Marvels’ (2023)
When Captain Marvel came out in 2019, its box office performance likely took Disney and Marvel Studios by surprise. It had a $153 million opening weekend. It went on to gross $1 billion worldwide, outperforming all three Thor films, the two Guardians of the Galaxy movies, Doctor Strange, and Spider-Man: Homecoming. A Captain Marvel sequel not only seemed obvious, but one that took the Captain America: Civil War formula of pairing Carol Danvers with other MCU characters like Monica Rambeau and Kamala Khan / Ms. Marvel should have worked. Sadly, by the time The Marvels hits theaters, audiences’ appetite and feelings towards the Marvel Cinematic Universe had changed.
A series of disappointing entries like Thor: Love and Thunder and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania certainly soured audiences, but also Marvel’s investment into streaming series that fans wanted during the Netflix era proved too much for mainstream audiences. It began to feel like homework, needing to watch two separate series to fully understand what was going on in a Captain Marvel sequel. The result was that The Marvels became the first box office bomb in the MCU’s history, grossing $84 million domestically and $206 million worldwide. To make matters worse, The Marvels had a net budget of $307 million.
‘Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga’ (2024)
Mad Max: Fury Road is considered one of the greatest action movies of all time. The 2015 film was a respectable hit, and over time, its esteem and fanbase grew on home video. It even earned an Academy Award nomination for Best Picture. That suggested that the prequel film, Furiosa: Mad Max Fury Road, would build off the positive word of mouth and become a box office hit. Even though Furiosa was not as universally praised as Fury Road, it still received largely positive reviews from critics and went on to be named one of the Top Ten Films of 2024 by the National Board of Review.
Unfortunately, when Furiosa: Mad Max Fury Road came out, it crashed and burned at the box office faster than a war boy showing his loyalty to Immortan Joe. Despite opening at number 1 at the box office over Memorial Day weekend, its $26 million gross made it one of the worst Memorial Day weekends in box office history. The movie ultimately grossed $67 million domestically and $174 million worldwide, more than $200 million less than the $379 million worldwide total of Mad Max: Fury Road. Furiosa reportedly lost between $75 million and $95 million, and seemingly put a pause on any future Mad Max films.
‘Scott Pilgrim vs. The World’ (2010)
In 2010, Scott Pilgrim vs. The World looked poised to usher in a new era of blockbusters. Edgar Wright, whose two previous films, Shaun of the Dead and Hot Fuzz, had grown into full-blown cult classics, was getting the full support of a major studio in Universal Pictures to adapt a beloved underground comic. With a cast filled with rising talent like Michael Cera, Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Aubrey Plaza, Kieran Culkin, and Anna Kendrick, along with Superman Returns actor Brandon Routh and future Captain America Chris Evans, Scott Pilgrim vs. The World looked like it was going to build on the recent wave of nerd-culture brewing in media.
When Scott Pilgrim vs. The World opened in theaters on Aug. 13, 2010, it was beaten by a more traditional blockbuster: The Expendables, which reunited many 1980s action heroes in a film that, despite being panned by critics, took the number one spot at the box office. Scott Pilgrim, on the other hand, opened at number 5 at the box office with a disappointing $10 million opening weekend. Despite positive reviews, Scott Pilgrim vs. The World’s $47.7 million worldwide gross fell short of its $60 million budget. In the years since, Scott Pilgrim vs. The World’s popularity has grown, a sign that a movie’s legacy is not always written at the box office.
‘Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny’ (2023)
When it comes to iconic movie franchises, Indiana Jones is one of the biggest. Even when the previous movie, Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, disappointed audiences, it was still a box office hit and one of the highest-grossing films of 2008. When 2023 rolled around, the nostalgia for a new Indiana Jones movie was no longer present. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, billed as the final film in the franchise, bombed at the box office with a $384 million worldwide total, over $400 million less than Kingdom of the Crystal Skull.
It certainly did not help that Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny was one of the most expensive movies ever made. With a reported budget of $238.9, reports said Dial of Destiny needed to gross between $480 and $600 million to break even. How did the franchise fall so far? Maybe it was the fact that Steven Spielberg did not return. Maybe it was the disappointing reaction to Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. But the more likely answer was that in the 15 years since the previous Indiana Jones film, the character had largely been absent from wider popular culture. A new generation did not have a nostalgic attachment to the character. It was a disappointing end to the beloved franchise.
‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ (2018)
Before 2018, there were a few indisputable truths. The Earth revolves around the sun. What goes up must come down. And a Star Wars movie is always going to be a hit. Not just a hit, but one of the biggest movies of its year. All that changed when Solo: A Star Wars Story hit theaters and became the first film in the franchise to bomb at the box office. Grossing $393.2 million, Solo could have been disappointing for a Star Wars film, but a respectable hit if it didn’t have a budget of $300 million. Why so much for a Han Solo spin-off?
Well, Disney essentially reshoot half the movie after the original directors, Phil Lord and Chris Miller, were fired and replaced by Ron Howard. This ballooned the budget to the point that a spin-off movie would need to gross $600 million to break even. Now it is easy to see why Disney thought they could invest that money and recoup it. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story grossed $1 billion two years ago, and Star Wars was on a hot streak.
Yet releasing five months after Star Wars: The Last Jedi felt too soon, and making a Han Solo movie without star Harrison Ford felt like something someone should have factored in. Solo changed the trajectory of the Star Wars franchise, pivoting from spin-off films to television series for seven years. Now there is reasonable concern that The Mandalorian and Grogu might not be one of the biggest movies of the summer movie season.
This story originally appeared on Movieweb
